Comprehensive at‐site flood frequency analysis using Monte Carlo Bayesian inference

Kuczera, George

doi:10.1029/1999wr900012

Cited by 172 publications

(151 citation statements)

References 15 publications

(9 reference statements)

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“…The second family uses a continuous simulation approach Lavabre, 1999, 2002), where a rainfall generator is coupled with a rainfall-runoff model to generate long hydrological series from which extreme quantiles can be inferred. Within both families, parameter estimation can be performed at the local scale using at-site streamflow data only (e.g., Kuczera, 1999;Martins and Stedinger, 2000), at the regional scale using streamflow data from neighboring stations only (e.g., Stedinger and Tasker, Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. Hosking and Wallis, 1997), or combining local and regional information (e.g., Ribatet et al, 2006).…”

Section: Diversity Of Flood Frequency Analysis Approachesmentioning

confidence: 99%

A data-based comparison of flood frequency analysis methods used in France

Kochanek

Renard²,

Arnaud³

et al. 2014

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Flood frequency analysis (FFA) aims at estimating quantiles with large return periods for an extreme discharge variable. Many FFA implementations are used in operational practice in France. These implementations range from the estimation of a pre-specified distribution to continuous simulation approaches using a rainfall simulator coupled with a rainfall-runoff model. This diversity of approaches raises questions regarding the limits of each implementation and calls for a nation-wide comparison of their predictive performances.This paper presents the results of a national comparison of the main FFA implementations used in France. More accurately, eight implementations are considered, corresponding to the local, regional and local-regional estimation of Gumbel and Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions, as well as the local and regional versions of a continuous simulation approach. A data-based comparison framework is applied to these eight competitors to evaluate their predictive performances in terms of reliability and stability, using daily flow data from more than 1000 gauging stations in France.Results from this comparative exercise suggest that two implementations dominate their competitors in terms of predictive performances, namely the local version of the continuous simulation approach and the local-regional estimation of a GEV distribution. More specific conclusions include the following: (i) the Gumbel distribution is not suitable for Mediterranean catchments, since this distribution demonstrably leads to an underestimation of flood quantiles; (ii) the local estimation of a GEV distribution is not recommended, because the difficulty in estimating the shape parameter results in frequent predictive failures; (iii) all the purely regional implementations evaluated in this study displayed a quite poor reliability, suggesting that prediction in completely ungauged catchments remains a challenge.

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Section: Diversity Of Flood Frequency Analysis Approachesmentioning

confidence: 99%

A data-based comparison of flood frequency analysis methods used in France

Kochanek

Renard²,

Arnaud³

et al. 2014

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…Several methods have been used in the estimation of the statistical parameters for the selected distribution functions . The most efficient methods to incorporate imprecise and categorical data are (1) maximum likelihood estimators (Leese, 1973;Stedinger and Cohn, 1986;Francés, 2001); (2) the method of expected moments (Cohn et al, 1997;England et al, 2003); and (3) Bayesian methods (Kuczera, 1999;O'Connell et al, 2002;O'Connell, 2005;Reis and Stedinger, 2005). Several reviews of these methods have been published by Stedinger et al (1993) and , and case study applications in Europe can be found, among others in Calenda et al (2009) and Botero and Francés (2010).…”

Section: Flood Frequency Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantitative historical hydrology in Europe

Benito

Brázdil

Herget

et al. 2015

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. In recent decades, the quantification of flood hydrological characteristics (peak discharge, hydrograph shape, and runoff volume) from documentary evidence has gained scientific recognition as a method to lengthen flood records of rare and extreme events. This paper describes the methodological evolution of quantitative historical hydrology under the influence of developments in hydraulics and statistics. In the 19th century, discharge calculations based on flood marks were the only source of hydrological data for engineering design, but were later left aside in favour of systematic gauge records and conventional hydrological procedures. In the last two decades, there has been growing scientific and public interest in understanding long-term patterns of rare floods, in maintaining the flood heritage and memory of extremes, and developing methods for deterministic and statistical application to different scientific and engineering problems. A compilation of 46 case studies across Europe with reconstructed discharges demonstrates that (1) in most cases present flood magnitudes are not unusual within the context of the last millennium, although recent floods may exceed past floods in some temperate European rivers (e.g. the Vltava and Po rivers); (2) the frequency of extreme floods has decreased since the 1950s, although some rivers (e.g. the Gardon and Ouse rivers) show a reactivation of rare events over the last two decades. There is a great potential for gaining understanding of individual extreme events based on a combined multiproxy approach (palaeoflood and documentary records) providing high-resolution time flood series and their environmental and climatic changes; and for developing non-systematic and non-stationary statistical models based on relations of past floods with external and internal covariates under natural low-frequency climate variability.

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“…Minimum discharge estimates were calculated by hydraulic modelling using the HEC-RAS hydraulic model (Brunner, 2001) with input data and parameter settings provided in In addition the percentage annual exceedance probability (AEP) of each palaeoflood is estimated in the FLIKE software (Kuczera, 1999) using systematic records from the respective gauging stations. An extreme flood discharge was defined as the 90 th percentile of …”

Section: Discharge Reconstruction Of Flood Magnitudementioning

confidence: 99%

Beyond the gorge: Palaeoflood reconstruction from slackwater deposits in a range of physiographic settings in subtropical Australia

et al. 2017

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The application of palaeoflood hydrology in Australia has been limited since its initial introduction more than 30 years ago. This study adopts a regional, field-based approach to sampling slackwater deposits in a subtropical setting in southeast Queensland beyond the traditional arid setting. We explore the potential and challenges of using sites outside the traditional physiographical setting of bedrock gorges. Over 30 flood units were identified across different physiographical settings using a range of criteria. Evidence of charcoal-rich layers and palaeosol development assisted in the identification and separation of distinct flood units. The OSL-dated flood units are relatively young with two-thirds of the samples being <1000 years old. The elevation of all flood units have resulted in estimated minimum discharges greater than the 1% annual exceedance probability. Although these are in the same order of gauged flood magnitudes, >80% of them classified as 'extreme event'. This study opens up the renewed possibility of applying palaeoflood hydrology to more populated parts of Australia where the need for improved estimation of flood frequency and magnitude is now urgent in light of several extreme flood events. Preliminary contributions to improve the understanding between high magnitude floods and regional climatic drivers are also discussed. Recognised regional extreme floods generally coincide with La Niña and negative IPO phases, while tropical cyclones appear to be a key weather system in generating such large floods.

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Comprehensive at‐site flood frequency analysis using Monte Carlo Bayesian inference

Cited by 172 publications

References 15 publications

A data-based comparison of flood frequency analysis methods used in France

A data-based comparison of flood frequency analysis methods used in France

Quantitative historical hydrology in Europe

Beyond the gorge: Palaeoflood reconstruction from slackwater deposits in a range of physiographic settings in subtropical Australia

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