Compounding effects of white pine blister rust, mountain pine beetle, and fire threaten four white pine species

Dudney, Joan; Nesmith, Jonathan C. B.; Cahill, Matthew C.; Cribbs, Jennifer E.; Duriscoe, Dan M.; Das, Adrian J.; Stephenson, Nathan L.; Battles, John J.

doi:10.1002/ecs2.3263

Cited by 20 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 62 publications

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“…These projected changes in prevalence under RCP4.5 2056-60 do not account for future potential changes in drought severity and host distributional shifts that may also occur in response to future climate change. Though host species’ recruitment rates vary spatially and by species 62 , white pine demographic changes will likely lag behind blister rust expansion, particularly at high elevations where trees are very slow growing (pine hosts can live for ~1500 years) and slow recruiting (~0.2 %/year) 62 . Thus, using the past ~20 years of demographic change as a control in our projection of the next ~30 years is likely a reasonable approach.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Both mountain pine beetle ( Dendroctonus ponderosae ) and bark weevils ( Pissodes spp.) can preferentially select trees weakened by blister rust and/or drought 62 , 67 ; though during extreme drought, bark beetles can kill trees indiscriminately 68 . Over the past ~20 years, these biotic attacks occurred more frequently at low elevations in SEKI where aridity is higher and pests and pathogens are more abundant 62 , 68 .…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…can preferentially select trees weakened by blister rust and/or drought 62 , 67 ; though during extreme drought, bark beetles can kill trees indiscriminately 68 . Over the past ~20 years, these biotic attacks occurred more frequently at low elevations in SEKI where aridity is higher and pests and pathogens are more abundant 62 , 68 . Additionally, recent climate change may have increased physiological stress in infected sugar pine growing near their range limits, potentially increasing the probability of mortality 62 from blister rust infections or other biotic agents.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Over the past ~20 years, these biotic attacks occurred more frequently at low elevations in SEKI where aridity is higher and pests and pathogens are more abundant 62 , 68 . Additionally, recent climate change may have increased physiological stress in infected sugar pine growing near their range limits, potentially increasing the probability of mortality 62 from blister rust infections or other biotic agents. Thus trees growing in arid regions were more likely to die following infection, and drought events may have accelerated mortality, particularly in arid regions.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In contrast, whitebark pine in the southern Sierra Nevada historically experienced some of the lowest rates of white pine blister rust infection compared to more northern regions of its range. The projected expansion of blister rust under climate change, however, reduces the likelihood that the southern Sierra Nevada remains a blister rust refugium 62 for whitebark pine. Additionally, while disease risk is predicted to decline further in lower elevation white pines (Fig.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Nonlinear shifts in infectious rust disease due to climate change

et al. 2021

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Range shifts of infectious plant disease are expected under climate change. As plant diseases move, emergent abiotic-biotic interactions are predicted to modify their distributions, leading to unexpected changes in disease risk. Evidence of these complex range shifts due to climate change, however, remains largely speculative. Here, we combine a long-term study of the infectious tree disease, white pine blister rust, with a six-year field assessment of drought-disease interactions in the southern Sierra Nevada. We find that climate change between 1996 and 2016 moved the climate optimum of the disease into higher elevations. The nonlinear climate change-disease relationship contributed to an estimated 5.5 (4.4–6.6) percentage points (p.p.) decline in disease prevalence in arid regions and an estimated 6.8 (5.8–7.9) p.p. increase in colder regions. Though climate change likely expanded the suitable area for blister rust by 777.9 (1.0–1392.9) km2 into previously inhospitable regions, the combination of host-pathogen and drought-disease interactions contributed to a substantial decrease (32.79%) in mean disease prevalence between surveys. Specifically, declining alternate host abundance suppressed infection probabilities at high elevations, even as climatic conditions became more suitable. Further, drought-disease interactions varied in strength and direction across an aridity gradient—likely decreasing infection risk at low elevations while simultaneously increasing infection risk at high elevations. These results highlight the critical role of aridity in modifying host-pathogen-drought interactions. Variation in aridity across topographic gradients can strongly mediate plant disease range shifts in response to climate change.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Nonlinear shifts in infectious rust disease due to climate change

et al. 2021

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Growth, drought response, and climate‐associated genomic structure in whitebark pine in the Sierra Nevada of California

Mantgem

Milano

Dudney

et al. 2023

Ecology and Evolution

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Whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis Engelm.) has experienced rapid population declines and is listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act in the United States.Whitebark pine in the Sierra Nevada of California represents the southernmost end of the species' distribution and, like other portions of its range, faces threats from an introduced pathogen, native bark beetles, and a rapidly warming climate. Beyond these chronic stressors, there is also concern about how this species will respond to acute stressors, such as drought. We present patterns of stem growth from 766 large (average diameter at breast height >25 cm), disease-free whitebark pine across the Sierra Nevada before and during a recent period of drought. We contextualize growth patterns using population genomic diversity and structure from a subset of 327 trees. Sampled whitebark pine generally had positive to neutral stem growth trends from 1970 to 2011, which was positively correlated with minimum temperature and precipitation. Indices of stem growth during drought years (2012 to 2015) relative to a predrought interval were mostly positive to neutral at our sampled sites. Individual tree growth response phenotypes appeared to be linked to genotypic variation in climate-associated loci, suggesting that some genotypes can take better advantage of local climatic conditions than others. We speculate that reduced snowpack during the 2012 to 2015 drought years may have lengthened the growing season while retaining sufficient moisture to maintain growth at most study sites. Growth responses may differ under future warming, however, particularly if drought severity increases and modifies interactions with pests and pathogens.

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Temperature is positively associated with tree mortality in California subalpine forests containing whitebark pine

2023

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Whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis Engelm.) is a keystone high-elevation tree species occurring across much of western North America, yet it has been listed as threatened under the US Endangered Species Act due to rapid population declines and extensive ongoing pressures from white pine blister rust (Cronartium ribicola), mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae), and increasing temperature and aridity associated with climate change.Past research has shown that whitebark pine mortality is more likely in hotter and drier sites, but no broad-extent analyses spanning multiple ecoregions have directly quantified the relationship between mortality probability and its environmental drivers at a fine spatial scale. To address this gap, we used spatially continuous high-resolution (30 m) maps of mortality in California produced by a remote sensing-based change detection algorithm, and we developed generalized additive models to explain this mortality variability using relevant biophysical variables. We found that maximum daily temperature was strongly positively associated with mortality intensity and that mortality was also generally more intense in sites with greater solar exposure (e.g., south-facing slopes). Our results support the interpretation that as climate warms and aridity increases, populations in "trailing edge" (i.e., hot, dry) sites are most vulnerable. The environmental relationships we quantify will aid in identifying the locations and environments with the greatest risk of future mortality as well as those likely to serve as refugia.

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Compounding effects of white pine blister rust, mountain pine beetle, and fire threaten four white pine species

Abstract: Battles. 2020. Compounding effects of white pine blister rust, mountain pine beetle, and fire threaten four white pine species.

Cited by 20 publications

References 62 publications

Nonlinear shifts in infectious rust disease due to climate change

Nonlinear shifts in infectious rust disease due to climate change

Growth, drought response, and climate‐associated genomic structure in whitebark pine in the Sierra Nevada of California

Temperature is positively associated with tree mortality in California subalpine forests containing whitebark pine

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