Range shifts of infectious plant disease are expected under climate change. As plant diseases move, emergent abiotic-biotic interactions are predicted to modify their distributions, leading to unexpected changes in disease risk. Evidence of these complex range shifts due to climate change, however, remains largely speculative. Here, we combine a long-term study of the infectious tree disease, white pine blister rust, with a six-year field assessment of drought-disease interactions in the southern Sierra Nevada. We find that climate change between 1996 and 2016 moved the climate optimum of the disease into higher elevations. The nonlinear climate change-disease relationship contributed to an estimated 5.5 (4.4–6.6) percentage points (p.p.) decline in disease prevalence in arid regions and an estimated 6.8 (5.8–7.9) p.p. increase in colder regions. Though climate change likely expanded the suitable area for blister rust by 777.9 (1.0–1392.9) km2 into previously inhospitable regions, the combination of host-pathogen and drought-disease interactions contributed to a substantial decrease (32.79%) in mean disease prevalence between surveys. Specifically, declining alternate host abundance suppressed infection probabilities at high elevations, even as climatic conditions became more suitable. Further, drought-disease interactions varied in strength and direction across an aridity gradient—likely decreasing infection risk at low elevations while simultaneously increasing infection risk at high elevations. These results highlight the critical role of aridity in modifying host-pathogen-drought interactions. Variation in aridity across topographic gradients can strongly mediate plant disease range shifts in response to climate change.

Summary Elucidating the temporal dynamics of arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi is critical for understanding their functions. Furthermore, research investigating the temporal dynamics of AM fungi in response to agricultural practices remains in its infancy. We investigated the effect of nitrogen fertilisation and watering reduction on the temporal dynamics of AM fungi, across the lifespan of wheat. Nitrogen fertilisation decreased AM fungal spore density (SD), extraradical hyphal density (ERHD), and intraradical colonisation rate (IRCR) in both watering conditions. Nitrogen fertilisation affected AM fungal community composition in soil but not in roots, regardless of watering conditions. The temporal analysis revealed that AM fungal ERHD and IRCR were higher under conventional watering and lower under reduced watering in March than in other growth stages at low (≤ 70 kg N ha−1 yr−1) but not at high (≥ 140) nitrogen fertilisation levels. AM fungal SD was lower in June than in other growth stages and community composition varied with plant development at all nitrogen fertilisation levels, regardless of watering conditions. This study demonstrates that high nitrogen fertilisation levels disrupt the temporal dynamics of AM fungal hyphal growth but not sporulation and community composition.

Climatic and environmental change are predicted to increase the frequency, severity, and duration of droughts, the effects of which will probably be further exacerbated by rising temperatures (Diffenbaugh et al., 2015). Unprecedented droughts have already taken tolls on ecosystems from the temperate forests of California to the tropical forests of the Amazon (

Predicted increases in extreme droughts will likely cause major shifts in carbon sequestration and forest composition. Although growth declines during drought are widely documented, an increasing number of studies have reported both positive and negative responses to the same drought. These divergent growth patterns may reflect thresholds (i.e., nonlinear responses) promoted by changes in the dominant climatic constraints on tree growth. Here we tested whether stemwood growth exhibited linear or nonlinear responses to temperature and precipitation and whether stemwood growth thresholds co‐occurred with multiple thresholds in source and sink processes that limit tree growth. We extracted 772 tree cores, 1398 needle length records, and 1075 stable isotope samples from 27 sites across whitebark pine's (Pinus albicaulis Engelm.) climatic niche in the Sierra Nevada. Our results indicated that a temperature threshold in stemwood growth occurred at 8.4°C (7.12–9.51°C; estimated using fall‐spring maximum temperature). This threshold was significantly correlated with thresholds in foliar growth, as well as carbon (δ13C) and nitrogen (δ15N) stable isotope ratios, that emerged during drought. These co‐occurring thresholds reflected the transition between energy‐ and water‐limited tree growth (i.e., the E–W limitation threshold). This transition likely mediated carbon and nutrient cycling, as well as important differences in growth‐defense trade‐offs and drought adaptations. Furthermore, whitebark pine growing in energy‐limited regions may continue to experience elevated growth in response to climate change. The positive effect of warming, however, may be offset by growth declines in water‐limited regions, threatening the long‐term sustainability of the recently listed whitebark pine species in the Sierra Nevada.