Components of Uncertainty

Larsen, Vegard H.

doi:10.1111/iere.12499

Cited by 25 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 34 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…It is one of the most popular topic algorithms in the NLP literature and used here because of its simplicity, because it has proven to classify text in much the same manner as humans would do (Chang et al (2009)), and because it delivers interpretable output. For these reasons it has also been one of the most widely used NLP algorithms in recent economic applications (Hansen and McMahon (2016), Larsen (2017), Larsen and Thorsrud (2017), Hansen et al (2018), and Dybowski and Adämmer (2018)).…”

Section: News Data and Topicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

News media versus FRED‐MD for macroeconomic forecasting

Ellingsen

Larsen

Thorsrud

2021

J of Applied Econometrics

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Using a unique dataset of 22.5 million news articles from the Dow Jones Newswires Archive, we perform an in depth real-time out-of-sample forecasting comparison study with one of the most widely used data sets in the newer forecasting literature, namely the FRED-MD dataset. Focusing on U.S. GDP, consumption and investment growth, our results suggest that the news data contains information not captured by the hard economic indicators, and that the news-based data are particularly informative for forecasting consumption developments.

show abstract

Section: News Data and Topicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

News media versus FRED‐MD for macroeconomic forecasting

Ellingsen

Larsen

Thorsrud

2021

J of Applied Econometrics

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…While actively studied by economics and business scholars, uncertainty shocks have received barely any attention from international relations researchers. In relation to firms, studies showed that organizations often adopt a ‘wait and see’ strategy in response to uncertainty shocks (Bloom, 2009), by pausing investment and hiring (Bloom, 2009; Larsen, 2021). In other words, unlike common situations of crisis with high levels of certainty (e.g.…”

Section: Exogenous Events As Sources Of Organizational Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Intergovernmental organizations in the face of the Covid-19 pandemic: Organizational behaviour in crises and under uncertainty

Ulybina

Ferrer

Alasuutari

2022

International Sociology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

When Covid-19 broke out, many interpreted it as a crisis that would lead to fundamental changes in different areas of life. The article aims to assess whether this also applies to intergovernmental organizations (IGOs). By analysing the websites of a sample of intergovernmental organizations, we ask: How did the Covid-19 pandemic affect the behaviour of intergovernmental organizations? How can one explain this behaviour of intergovernmental organizations in response to such a major exogenous event as the Covid-19 pandemic? How can the Covid-19 pandemic be best conceptualized in terms of its impact on intergovernmental organizations? We show that the responses of intergovernmental organizations to the Covid-19 pandemic had two important features: (a) intergovernmental organizations responded in a synchronized way, and (b) the pandemic triggered wide-spread non-major adaptations to the changed environment, providing opportunities for legitimation work and minor repackaging of existing activities, but has not led to noticeable transformational change in organizations’ activities. We argue that the observed intergovernmental organization’s responses can be explained partly from rational-choice perspective and partly from sociological institutionalist perspective. Given our data, we argue that the pandemic can be conceptualized as an uncertainty shock, in terms of its impact on intergovernmental organizations.

show abstract

“…Similarly to our findings, he also documents a negative response of real activity to a financial uncertainty shock. Interestingly, Larsen (2021) shows that not all types of uncertainty are alike. For instance, uncertainty surrounding future mergers and acquisitions is found to be positively correlated with the Norwegian business cycle.…”

Section: Related Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

Uncertainty and Monetary Policy During the Great Recession

Pellegrino

Castelnuovo

Caggiano

2022

Int Economic Review

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

We employ a nonlinear VAR framework and a state-of-the-art identi…cation strategy to document the large response of real activity to a …nancial uncertainty shock during and in the aftermath of the great recession. We replicate this evidence with an estimated DSGE framework featuring a concept of uncertainty comparable to that in our VAR. We then use the estimated framework to quantify the output loss due to the large uncertainty shock that materialized in 2008Q3. We …nd such a shock to be able to explain about 60% of the output loss in the 2008-2014 period. The same estimated model unveils the role successfully played by the Federal Reserve in limiting the output loss that would otherwise have occurred had monetary policy been conducted as in normal times. Finally, we show that the rule estimated during the great recession is able to deliver an economic outcome closer to the ‡exible price one than the rule describing the Federal Reserve's conduct in normal times.

show abstract

Components of Uncertainty

Cited by 25 publications

References 34 publications

News media versus FRED‐MD for macroeconomic forecasting

News media versus FRED‐MD for macroeconomic forecasting

Intergovernmental organizations in the face of the Covid-19 pandemic: Organizational behaviour in crises and under uncertainty

Uncertainty and Monetary Policy During the Great Recession

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About