Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. We employ a parsimonious nonlinear Interacted-VAR to examine whether the real effects of uncertainty shocks are greater when the economy is at the ZeroLower Bound. We find the contractionary effects of uncertainty shocks to be statistically larger when the ZLB is binding, with differences that are economically important. Our results are shown not to be driven by the contemporaneous occurrence of the Great Recession and high .nancial stress, and to be robust to different ways of modeling unconventional monetary policy. These findings lend support to recent theoretical contributions on the interaction between uncertainty shocks and the stance of monetary policy. Terms of use: Documents inJEL-Codes: C320, E320.

This paper estimates a non-linear Interacted VAR model in order to assess whether the real e¤ects of monetary policy shocks are lower during times of high uncertainty. In a novel way with respect to the literature, uncertainty, which serves as the conditioning indicator discriminating "high" from "low" uncertainty states, is modeled endogenously in the VAR and is found to reduce after the shocks. Generalized Impulse Response Functions à la Koop, Pesaran and Potter (1996) suggest that monetary policy shocks are signi…cantly less e¤ective during uncertain times, with the peak reactions of a battery of real variables being about two-thirds milder than those during tranquil times. We also show that, consistently with Vavra's (2014) predictions, the reaction of prices appears greater during …rm-level uncertain times.

This article summarises the academic contributions presented and discussed during the 2016 edition of the Melbourne Institute Macroeconomic Policy Meetings, which focused on the role played by uncertainty for a number of countries’ business cycle. Considerations on the interaction between uncertainty and financial frictions, the global dimension of uncertainty, uncertainty shocks in times of unconventional monetary policy and the imperfect knowledge that agents have over policy targets are among the discussions entertained in this article. The main insights coming from those papers are connected with the extant literature and directions for future research are offered.

Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. We employ a parsimonious nonlinear Interacted-VAR to examine whether the real effects of uncertainty shocks are greater when the economy is at the ZeroLower Bound. We find the contractionary effects of uncertainty shocks to be statistically larger when the ZLB is binding, with differences that are economically important. Our results are shown not to be driven by the contemporaneous occurrence of the Great Recession and high .nancial stress, and to be robust to different ways of modeling unconventional monetary policy. These findings lend support to recent theoretical contributions on the interaction between uncertainty shocks and the stance of monetary policy. Terms of use: Documents inJEL-Codes: C320, E320.