Compliance and Emissions Trading under the Kyoto Protocol: Rules for Uncertain Inventories

Nahorski, Zbigniew; Horabik, Joanna; Jonas, M.

doi:10.1007/s11267-006-9112-8

Cited by 32 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…The state-of-the-art of preparatory signal analysis is well summarized by [23] (see also [21,[24][25][26]), who compare six of the most widely discussed techniques. 2 In addition, preparatory signal analysis also allows monitoring the success of a country in reducing its emissions along a prescribed emissions target path between its base year and commitment year/period.…”

Section: State Of the Art Of Analyzing Uncertain Emission Changesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Literature on treating scientific uncertainty upfront in financial markets is already emerging (e.g., [26,44,45]), but this has not yet been applied widely to GHG emissions credits. For now it appears that buyers of emissions credits generally accept credits without uncertainty and the seller is obligated to ensure that the credits are fulfilled.…”

Section: Uncertainty In the Lulucf Sectormentioning

confidence: 99%

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Dealing with Uncertainty in GHG Inventories: How to Go About It?

Jonas

White

Marland

et al. 2009

Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems

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The assessment of greenhouse gases emitted to and removed from the atmosphere is high on both political and scientific agendas. Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Parties to the Convention publish annual or periodic national inventories of greenhouse gas emissions and removals. Policymakers use these inventories to develop strategies and policies for emission reductions and to track the progress of these policies. However, greenhouse gas inventories (whether at the global, national, corporate, or other level) contain uncertainty for a variety of reasons, and these uncertainties have important scientific and policy implications. For scientific, political, and economic reasons it is important to deal with the uncertainty of emissions estimates proactively. Proper treatment of uncertainty affects everything from our understanding of the physical system to the economics of mitigation strategies and the politics of mitigation agreements. A comprehensive and consistent understanding of, and a framework for dealing with, the uncertainty of emissions estimates should have a large impact on the functioning and effectiveness of the Kyoto Protocol and its successor. This chapter attempts to

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Section: State Of the Art Of Analyzing Uncertain Emission Changesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Uncertainty In the Lulucf Sectormentioning

confidence: 99%

Dealing with Uncertainty in GHG Inventories: How to Go About It?

Jonas

White

Marland

et al. 2009

Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…It is admitted that the emissions are uncertain and this knowledge affects the trading rules, as presented in earlier studies by Nahorski et al (Nahorski et al 2007) and Nahorski and Horabik (Nahorski and Horabik 2010). These rules lead to more uncertain emissions that are less expensive on the market.…”

mentioning

confidence: 95%

“…More appropriate methods use percentiles and critical values, like a so-called undershooting technique which was discussed earlier, e.g. by Nahorski et al (Nahorski et al 2007) and Nahorski and Horabik (Nahorski and Horabik 2010). However, emissions are inventoried usually only once per year, and they are typically not random, so it is difficult to treat them as probabilistic variables.…”

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confidence: 99%

Uncertainties in greenhouse gases inventories – expanding our perspective

et al. 2014

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Strategies for mitigating global climate change require accurate estimates of the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). A strong consensus in the global scientific community states that efforts to control climate change require stabilization of the atmospheric concentration of GHGs (as per a recent compilation; (IPCC 2013)). Estimates of the amounts of carbon dioxide and other GHGs emitted to the atmosphere, as well as the amounts absorbed by terrestrial and aquatic systems, are crucial for planning, analyzing, validating and at global scale verifying mitigation efforts and for analyzing scenarios of future emissions. The magnitude and distribution of current emissions and the path of future emissions are both of considerable importance. It is critical that we have estimates of emissions and that we acknowledge and deal with the uncertainty in our best estimates. The range of issues that derive from uncertainty in emissions estimates was the subject of the 3 rd International Uncertainty Workshop held in Lviv, Ukraine, 2010, and is the subject of this special issue.Resolving national or regional contributions to changes in atmospheric GHG concentrations involves international agreements and national inventories of emissions. Countries, cities, companies, and individuals are now commonly calculating their GHG emissions, and markets Climatic Change (2014) 124:451-458

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“…These uncertainties have not influenced the prices in any of the previous and existent markets. In the solution that is presented in this paper emission uncertainties are taken into account in the simulation by using effective permits, as proposed in Nahorski et al (2007). This brings the problem of trading uncertain emissions to that of usual trade with a perfectly known amount of the good being traded.…”

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confidence: 99%

Simulation of an uncertain emission market for greenhouse gases using agent-based methods

2014

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The paper presents the problem of a simulation of the greenhouse gases emission permits market where only low accuracy emission amounts are known. An organization of the market with uncertain emissions is proposed and trading rules for individual market participants are discussed. Simulation of the market is based on a multi-agent system. Negotiation of purchase/sale prices between the parties are introduced, where the trading parties adopt one of two options: (i) bilateral negotiations, and (ii) sealed bid reverse auctions. Results of simulation runs show trajectories of transaction prices, as well as probability distributions of learning agents' bidding prices.

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Compliance and Emissions Trading under the Kyoto Protocol: Rules for Uncertain Inventories

Cited by 32 publications

References 17 publications

Dealing with Uncertainty in GHG Inventories: How to Go About It?

Dealing with Uncertainty in GHG Inventories: How to Go About It?

Uncertainties in greenhouse gases inventories – expanding our perspective

Simulation of an uncertain emission market for greenhouse gases using agent-based methods

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