NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE | ADVANCE ONLINE PUBLICATION | www.nature.com/natureclimatechange 1 D espite two decades of effort to curb emissions of CO 2 and other greenhouse gases (GHGs), emissions grew faster during the 2000s than in the 1990s 1 , and by 2010 had reached ~50 Gt CO 2 equivalent (CO 2 eq) yr −1 (refs 2,3). The continuing rise in emissions is a growing challenge for meeting the international goal of limiting warming to less than 2 °C relative to the pre-industrial era, particularly without stringent climate policies to decrease emissions in the near future 2-4 . As negative emissions technologies (NETs) seem ever more necessary 3,[5][6][7][8][9][10] To have a >50% chance of limiting warming below 2 °C, most recent scenarios from integrated assessment models (IAMs) require large-scale deployment of negative emissions technologies (NETs). These are technologies that result in the net removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. We quantify potential global impacts of the different NETs on various factors (such as land, greenhouse gas emissions, water, albedo, nutrients and energy) to determine the biophysical limits to, and economic costs of, their widespread application. Resource implications vary between technologies and need to be satisfactorily addressed if NETs are to have a significant role in achieving climate goals.options, to be able to decide which pathways are most desirable for dealing with climate change.There are distinct classes of NETs, such as: (1) bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) 11,12 ; (2) direct air capture of CO 2 from ambient air by engineered chemical reactions (DAC) 13,14 ; (3) enhanced weathering of minerals (EW) 15 , where natural weathering to remove CO 2 from the atmosphere is accelerated and the products stored in soils, or buried in land or deep ocean [16][17][18][19] ; (4) afforestation and reforestation (AR) to fix atmospheric carbon in biomass and soils [20][21][22] ; (5) manipulation of carbon uptake by the ocean, either

[1] Using ozone measurements from two sounding sites and two high-altitude stations in Central Europe, we show evidence for a dominant influence of changes in lowermost stratospheric ozone on the variability and overall upward trend of background ozone in the lower troposphere (3000 -3500 m asl) during the 1992 -2004 period. Numerical simulations with a stratospheric chemistry transport model suggest that changes in lower stratospheric ozone were driven by dynamics rather than by changes in stratospheric chlorine loading. In addition, Lagrangian model simulations indicate that changes in downward transport of ozone from the stratosphere into the troposphere were dominated by changes in lowermost stratospheric ozone concentrations rather than by variations of cross-tropopause air mass transport. This suggests that the positive ozone trends and concentration anomalies in the lower free troposphere over Europe during the 1990s were likely to a large extent due to enhanced stratospheric ozone contributions, particularly in winter -spring. Citation:

Natural carbon sinks currently absorb approximately half of the anthropogenic CO 2 emitted by fossil fuel burning, cement production and land-use change. However, this airborne fraction may change in the future depending on the emissions scenario. An important issue in developing carbon budgets to achieve climate stabilisation targets is the behaviour of natural carbon sinks, particularly under low emissions mitigation scenarios as required to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. A key requirement for low carbon pathways is to quantify the effectiveness of negative emissions technologies which will be strongly affected by carbon cycle feedbacks. Here we find that Earth system models suggest significant weakening, even potential reversal, of the ocean and land sinks under future low emission scenarios. For the RCP2.6 concentration pathway, models project land and ocean sinks to weaken to 0.8±0.9 and 1.1±0.3 GtC yr −1 respectively for the second half of the 21st century and to −0.4±0.4 and 0.1±0.2 GtC yr −1 respectively for the second half of the 23rd century. Weakening of natural carbon sinks will hinder the effectiveness of negative emissions technologies and therefore increase their required deployment to achieve a given climate stabilisation target. We introduce a new metric, the perturbation airborne fraction, to measure and assess the effectiveness of negative emissions.

Emission inventories (EIs) are the fundamental tool to monitor compliance with greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and emission reduction commitments. Inventory accounting guidelines provide the best practices to help EI compilers across different countries and regions make comparable, national emission estimates regardless of differences in data availability. However, there are a variety of sources of error and uncertainty that originate beyond what the inventory guidelines can define. Spatially explicit EIs, which are a key product for atmospheric modeling applications, are often developed for research purposes and there are no specific guidelines to achieve spatial emission estimates. The errors and uncertainties associated with the spatial estimates are unique to the approaches employed and are often difficult to assess. This study compares the global, high-resolution (1 km), fossil fuel, carbon dioxide (CO 2), gridded EI Open-source Data Inventory for Anthropogenic CO 2 (ODIAC) with the multiresolution, spatially explicit bottom-up EI geoinformation technologies, spatio-temporal approaches, and full carbon account for improving the accuracy of GHG inventories (GESAPU) over the domain of Poland. By taking full advantage of the data granularity that bottom-up EI offers, this study characterized the potential biases in spatial disaggregation by emission sector (point and non-point emissions) across different scales (national, subnational/regional, and urban policy-relevant scales) and identified the root causes. While two EIs are in agreement in total and sectoral emissions (2.2% for the total emissions), the emission spatial patterns showed large differences (10~100% relative differences at 1 km) especially at the urbanrural transitioning areas (90-100%). We however found that the agreement of emissions over urban areas is surprisingly good compared with the estimates previously reported for US cities. This paper also discusses the use of spatially explicit EIs for climate mitigation applications beyond the common use in atmospheric modeling. We conclude with a discussion of current and future challenges of EIs in support of successful implementation of GHG emission

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Accelerating rates of biodiversity loss have led ecologists to explore the effects of species richness on ecosystem functioning and the flow of ecosystem services. One explanation of the relationship between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning lies in the spatial insurance hypothesis, which centers on the idea that productivity and stability increase with biodiversity in a temporally varying, spatially heterogeneous environment. However, there has been little work on the impact of dispersal where environmental risks are more or less spatially correlated, or where dispersal rates are variable. In this paper, we extend the original Loreau model to consider stochastic temporal variation in resource availability, which we refer to as “environmental risk,” and heterogeneity in species dispersal rates. We find that asynchronies across communities and species provide community-level stabilizing effects on productivity, despite varying levels of species richness. Although intermediate dispersal rates play a role in mitigating risk, they are less effective in insuring productivity against global (metacommunity-level) than local (individual community-level) risks. These results are particularly interesting given the emergence of global sources of risk such as climate change or the closer integration of world markets. Our results offer deeper insights into the Loreau model and new perspectives on the effectiveness of spatial insurance in the face of environmental risks.

The idea of market-based carbon emission trading and carbon taxes is gaining in popularity as a global climate change policy instrument. However, these mechanisms might not necessarily have a positive outcome unless their value reflects socioeconomic and environmental impacts and regulations. Moreover, the fact that they have various inherent exogenous and endogenous uncertainties raises serious concerns about their ability to reduce emissions in a cost-effective way. This paper aims to introduce a simple stochastic model that allows the robustness of economic mechanisms for emission reduction under multiple natural and human-related uncertainties to be analyzed. Unlike standard equilibrium state analysis, the model shows that the explicit introduction of uncertainties regarding emissions, abatement costs, and equilibrium states makes it almost impossible for existing market-based trading and carbon taxes to be environmentally safe and cost-effective. Here we propose a computerized multi-agent trading model. This can be viewed as a prototype to simulate an emission trading market that is regulated in a decentralized way. We argue that a market of this type is better equipped to deal with long-term emission reductions, their direct regulation, irreversibility, and "lock-in" equilibria.