Complex Systems Thinking and Renewable Energy Systems

Giampietro, Mario; Mayumi, Kozo

doi:10.1007/978-1-4020-8654-0_8

Cited by 3 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 57 publications

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“…The relation between net and gross energy is summarized in equations ( and adapted from Refs. 49 and 50): …”

Section: Peak Oil and Net Energymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…From 1998 to 2007, the annual rate of discovery of oil was 15 Gbo per year while the consumption of oil in 2008 was 30 Gbo, indicating that in 2008 the world produced and consumed at least 2 bbl for every barrel it found 32,33 . Oil demand is projected to be 39–49 Gbo per year by 2030, and, if the rate of discoveries remains constant, the world will be consuming between 2.6 and 3.3 bbl of oil for every barrel found (Table 2). 30,33 From these data, it is clear that discoveries are being outpaced by production—a condition indicative of peak oil.…”

Section: Peak Oil and Net Energymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Energy return on investment, peak oil, and the end of economic growth

Murphy

Hall

2011

Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences

157

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Economic growth over the past 40 years has used increasing quantities of fossil energy, and most importantly oil. Yet, our ability to increase the global supply of conventional crude oil much beyond current levels is doubtful, which may pose a problem for continued economic growth. Our research indicates that, due to the depletion of conventional, and hence cheap, crude oil supplies (i.e., peak oil), increasing the supply of oil in the future would require exploiting lower quality resources (i.e., expensive), and thus could occur only at high prices. This situation creates a system of feedbacks that can be aptly described as an economic growth paradox: increasing the oil supply to support economic growth will require high oil prices that will undermine that economic growth. From this we conclude that the economic growth of the past 40 years is unlikely to continue in the long term unless there is some remarkable change in how we manage our economy.

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“…The relation between net and gross energy is summarized in equations ( and adapted from Refs. 49 and 50): …”

Section: Peak Oil and Net Energymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Peak Oil and Net Energymentioning

confidence: 99%

Energy return on investment, peak oil, and the end of economic growth

Murphy

Hall

2011

Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences

157

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“…Substitution of fossil fuels by renewable ones causes always additional costs, because all known techniques to provide renewable fuels from biomass need more energy than fossil fuel exploitation (Giampietro & Mayumi 2008). In other words: Polluting the environment is -for the time being -the most competitive alternative for Finnish farms.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Energy efficiency of fossil and renewable fuels

Schäfer

2016

SMST

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Assessment results of renewable energy supply in agriculture and forestry are often questionable because 1. the methodology does not describe the nature dependent conditions of agricultural production, 2. there is no standard system boundary, 3. thermodynamic laws are violated and/or ignored, 4. direct and embodied energy is mixed, 5. the mainstream life cycle analysis (LCA) takes downstream and upstream inputs arbitrarily into consideration, depending on the research objectives and the research-funding agency. Thus, the calculation results neglect a wide range of specific energy input figures of upstream and down-stream factors outside farm level resulting in non-comparable figures. The EROI describes the ratio between energy output and input. The advantage of this measure is that energy input and output of fuel supply as well as the resulting CO2 emissions are comparable. There are no standards to calculate the indirect energy input of commodities and services hidden in monetary inputs (insurances, rent for land, subsidies and fees etc.). They are usually excluded because procedures to handle them as energy input are rare. The easiest way to quantify the indirect energy is the use of the energy intensity (EI). Multiplying the price of any good or service with the energy intensity results in a rough estimation of energy embodied in the good or service. Applying the EROI and the EI to compare the efficiency of fossil and renewable energy supply released the following results: Substitution of fossil fuels by renewable ones causes always additional costs. Most known renewable energy supply techniques need more energy than fossil fuel exploitation. Polluting the environment is - for the time being – the most competitive alternative. Renewable engine fuel, produced from biomass, is not competitive with fossil fuels in terms of EROI. The energy of one ha biomass may substitute gasoline to drive a car 40 000 km with biogas. Electric power harnessed from one ha solar panels enables to drive an electric vehicle 5 000 000 km applying the same calculation method. The most efficient way to mitigate CO2 emissions is to include the entropy of agricultural products in energy policy decision making. Albeit wood has a high EROI, processing fuels from wood of low entropy makes no sense: Producing a table from a tree and burning the residues and the table at the end of its lifetime renders the same energy gain as using the tree for fuel only. The EROI of fossil fuels remains probably on high level during the next 50 to 100 years. Oil and gas will be replaced by coal, in Finland also by nuclear power, peat and wood. Although biomass is more renewable than fossil fuels, its EROI is lower and substitution will not reduce CO2 emissions. Climate change may force humankind to reduce fossil fuel consumption. The only sustainable way to achieve this is reduction of fossil fuel exploitation.

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“…Now is the time to close the door on such applications, unless a complete reformulation of the concept is undertaken so as to avoid the limitations discussed above, while recognizing that such a reformulation may not even be possible. While many of the insights developed above are probably inherently recognized by many exergy practitioners (e.g., [65]), these problems have not been sufficiently nor formally recognized in the exergy literature.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Characteristics of the Exergy Reference Environment and Its Implications for Sustainability-Based Decision-Making

2012

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In the energy realm there is a pressing need to make decisions in a complex world characterized by biophysical limits. Exergy has been promoted as a preferred means of characterizing the impacts of resource consumption and waste production for the purpose of improving decision-making. This paper provides a unique and critical analysis of universal and comprehensive formulations of the chemical exergy reference environment, for the purpose of better understanding how exergy can inform decision-making. Four related insights emerged from the analysis, notably: (1) standard and universal chemical exergy reference environments necessarily encounter internal inconsistencies and even contradictions in their very formulations; (2) these inconsistencies are a result of incompatibility between the exergy reference environment and natural environment, and the desire to model the exergy reference environment after the natural environment so as to maintain analytical relevance; (3) the topics for which exergy is most appropriate as an analytical tool are not well served by comprehensive reference environments, and (4) the inconsistencies point to a need for deeper reflection of whether it is appropriate to adopt a thermodynamic frame of analysis for situations whose relevant characteristics are non-thermodynamic (e.g., to characterize scarcity). The use of comprehensive reference environments may lead to incorrect recommendations and ultimately reduce its appeal for informing decision-making. Exergy may better inform decision-making by returning to process dependent reference states that model specific processes and situations for the purpose of engineering optimization. OPEN ACCESSEnergies 2012, 5 2198

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Complex Systems Thinking and Renewable Energy Systems

Cited by 3 publications

References 57 publications

Energy return on investment, peak oil, and the end of economic growth

Energy return on investment, peak oil, and the end of economic growth

Energy efficiency of fossil and renewable fuels

The Characteristics of the Exergy Reference Environment and Its Implications for Sustainability-Based Decision-Making

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