Comparison of the Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing Method with ARIMA Models: Forecasting of GDP per Capita in Five Balkan Countries Members of European Union (EU) Post COVID

Dritsaki, Melina; Dritsaki, Chaido

doi:10.4236/me.2021.1212104

Cited by 3 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…The Zivot-Andrews stationary testing approach assumes that the null hypothesis for equations (3), ( 4) and ( 5) is 𝛼 ̂ equals to zero. This implies that 𝑋 𝑡 has a structural break that is non-stationary (Dritsaki & Dritsaki, 2021).…”

Section: Stationarity Testmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic Growth and Environmental Pollution in Tanzania: An Environmental Kuznets Curve Analysis

Kyatikila,

Shitundu,

Kahyarara

2023

Tanzania Journal for Population studies and Development

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The creation of a long-term linkage between economic growth and environmental protection is a subject of an ongoing discussion among scholars and policymakers. The relationship between environmental quality and economic growth is viewed from two different angles. According to the first, it is impossible to protect the environment and increase the economy at the same time since doing so will inevitably result in the extinction of either one or both. The other contends that economic advancement and higher environmental quality can be achieved simultaneously since increasing economic growth raises income levels, which in turn increases the demand for environmental protection. However, there is a disagreement over how much environmental resources should be exploited to support rapid economic expansion. This study used the approach of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis to investigate the relationship between economic growth and environmental pollution in Tanzania. Tanzania’s economy annual data from 1970 to 2018 was used in the ARDL bounds testing for cointegration procedures. The evidence suggests that environmental pollution and economic growth have a U-shaped relationship, which rules out the existence of a traditional EKC in Tanzania. Like in many emerging economies, environmental pollution is anticipated to rise in Tanzania if economic expansion continues beyond a threshold level. The U-shaped link between economic growth and environmental pollution is important for policy formulation because both economic growth and a clean environment are welfare-enhancing; therefore, it is possible to have two policies that are mutually supportive rather than antagonistic. This can be achieved by having a proper environmental, legal, and institutional frameworks.

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Section: Stationarity Testmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic Growth and Environmental Pollution in Tanzania: An Environmental Kuznets Curve Analysis

Kyatikila,

Shitundu,

Kahyarara

2023

Tanzania Journal for Population studies and Development

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“…For example, papers by Dzitsaki (2016) and Dzitsaki (2018) used Box-Jenkins-type models to simulate and forecast unemployment in Greece and the United States. In the studies (Ahmed, 2017;Dvorakova, 2017;Dritsaki, 2021;Eissa, 2020;Ghazo, 2021), the dynamics of the GDP in various countries was studied and predicted. The time series methodology (with diverse variations) was used to simulate and forecast inflation dynamics by the following scholas: Alderite (2020), Ahmed (2021), Dadyan (2020), Shinkarenko (2021).…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Dynamics of Trade Relations between Ukraine and Romania: Modelling and Forecasting

Melnychenko

Matskul

Osadcha

2022

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The article examines the monthly dynamics of exports, imports and balance of trade between Ukraine and Romania in the period from 2005 to 2021. Time series from 2015 to 2021 were used for modelling and forecasting (since the date the European Union–Ukraine Association Agreement took effect). Adequate models of the dynamics series of the Box-Jenkins methodology were built: additive models with seasonal component ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) ARIMAS (or SARIMA) and Holt-Winters exponential smoothing with a dampened trend. Forecasting of exports, imports and trade balance for the fourth quarter of 2021 and first quarter of 2022 were completed. The forecast results showed a small relative error compared to the actual data. Thus, when forecasting the trade balance between countries using the Holt-Winters model, the relative prediction errors were: for October 2021 – 1.3%; for November 2021 – 2.6%; for December 2021 – 0.4%.

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Modelling and Forecasting GDP of Greece with a Modified Exponential Smoothing State Space Framework

Dritsaki

2023

Springer Proceedings in Business and Economics

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Comparison of the Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing Method with ARIMA Models: Forecasting of GDP per Capita in Five Balkan Countries Members of European Union (EU) Post COVID

Cited by 3 publications

References 13 publications

Economic Growth and Environmental Pollution in Tanzania: An Environmental Kuznets Curve Analysis

Economic Growth and Environmental Pollution in Tanzania: An Environmental Kuznets Curve Analysis

The Dynamics of Trade Relations between Ukraine and Romania: Modelling and Forecasting

Modelling and Forecasting GDP of Greece with a Modified Exponential Smoothing State Space Framework

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