Comparison of the economic impact of different wind power forecast systems for producers

Alessandrini, Stefano; Davo, Federica; Sperati, Simone; Benini, Michele; Monache, Luca Delle

doi:10.5194/asr-11-49-2014

Cited by 39 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 9 publications

(5 reference statements)

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“…Examples of very short-term probabilistic forecasts of wind power using statistical methods can be found in [13,14]. These probabilistic forecasts are known as predictive densities or probability distributions and provide important information for making risk-based decisions [15].Over the last two decades, the use of remote sensing measurements such as long-range lidars [16] has been extended in the wind industry. These systems are capable of measuring wind speed and direction (under certain assumptions) up to 30 km [17].…”

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confidence: 99%

On the Use of Dual-Doppler Radar Measurements for Very Short-Term Wind Power Forecasts

et al. 2018

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Very short-term forecasts of wind power provide electricity market participants with extremely valuable information, especially in power systems with high penetration of wind energy. In very short-term horizons, statistical methods based on historical data are frequently used. This paper explores the use of dual-Doppler radar observations of wind speed and direction to derive five-minute ahead deterministic and probabilistic forecasts of wind power. An advection-based technique is introduced, which estimates the predictive densities of wind speed at the target wind turbine. In a case study, the proposed methodology is used to forecast the power generated by seven turbines in the North Sea with a temporal resolution of one minute. The radar-based forecast outperforms the persistence and climatology benchmarks in terms of overall forecasting skill. Results indicate that when a large spatial coverage of the inflow of the wind turbine is available, the proposed methodology is also able to generate reliable density forecasts. Future perspectives on the application of Doppler radar observations for very short-term wind power forecasting are discussed in this paper. methods can be found in [6][7][8]. Very short-term forecasts of wind speed and power are often based on machine learning methods such as artificial neural networks [9] or Markov chain models [10,11], which are trained with historical data. Alternatively, combinations of different models (known as hybrid models) have been proposed to overcome the deficiencies of single models [12]. Parallel to the development of single point or deterministic forecasting models, the use of probabilistic forecasts, which include information about the uncertainty associated with the predicted events, has increased. Examples of very short-term probabilistic forecasts of wind power using statistical methods can be found in [13,14]. These probabilistic forecasts are known as predictive densities or probability distributions and provide important information for making risk-based decisions [15].Over the last two decades, the use of remote sensing measurements such as long-range lidars [16] has been extended in the wind industry. These systems are capable of measuring wind speed and direction (under certain assumptions) up to 30 km [17]. Unlike conventional wind measurements from met-mast or satellites, they present an adequate trade-off between temporal and spatial resolution for wind farm applications. However, the prediction horizon of a remote sensing-based forecasting model is limited by the maximum range of the remote sensing measurements and also influenced by meteorological conditions [18]. Indeed, publications on the use of long-range lidar measurements for wind energy applications have reported measurements with a maximum range of less than ten kilometers [19][20][21]. Despite those limitations, a recent contribution showed that a lidar-based forecasting technique can provide better results than conventional statistical benchmarks when forecasting near-coastal winds with le...

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On the Use of Dual-Doppler Radar Measurements for Very Short-Term Wind Power Forecasts

et al. 2018

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“…A preliminary application of AnEn technique is already proposed in Ref. [49] where the benefits of using the probabilistic forecast for the day-ahead market bidding are evaluated on the same dataset considered in this study.…”

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A novel application of an analog ensemble for short-term wind power forecasting

et al. 2015

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a b s t r a c tThe efficient integration of wind in the energy market is limited by its natural variability and predictability. This limitation can be tackled by using the probabilistic predictions that provide accurate deterministic forecasts along with a quantification of their uncertainty. We propose as a novelty the application of an analog ensemble (AnEn) method to generate probabilistic wind power forecasts (WPF). The AnEn prediction of a given variable is constituted by a set of measurements of the past, concurrent to the past forecasts most similar to the current one. The AnEn performance for WPF is compared with three state-of-the-science methods for probabilistic predictions over a wind farm and a 505-day long period: a wind power prediction based on the ensemble wind forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Ensemble Prediction System (ECMWF-EPS), the Limitedarea Ensemble Prediction System (LEPS) developed within the COnsortium for Small-scale MOdelling (COSMO-LEPS) and a quantile regression (QR) technique. The AnEn performs as well as ECMWF-EPS, COSMO-LEPS and QR for common events while it exhibits more skill for rare events. A comparison with the performances obtained with a deterministic forecasting method based on a Neural Network is also carried out showing the benefits of using AnEn.

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“…Analog ensemble (AnEn) techniques have been used with success for short-term weather and hydrologic predictions [25][26][27][28][29][30]. In the context of the wind resource assessment [22], following Delle Monache et al [28], the AnEn method draws on the information contained in a long-term reanalysis (known as historical data) of multiple physical quantities that are related to available targeted wind speed observations (known as the predictand) collected over a short time period (known as the training period, typically 365 days).…”

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Comparison of numerical weather prediction based deterministic and probabilistic wind resource assessment methods

et al. 2015

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h i g h l i g h t sThree wind resource assessment methodologies for grid integration studies are compared. The analog-based method provides deterministic and probabilistic estimates. The WIND Toolkit data set is more suitable for a large study area. a b s t r a c tNumerical weather prediction (NWP) models have been widely used for wind resource assessment. Model runs with higher spatial resolution are generally more accurate, yet extremely computational expensive. An alternative approach is to use data generated by a low resolution NWP model, in conjunction with statistical methods. In order to analyze the accuracy and computational efficiency of different types of NWP-based wind resource assessment methods, this paper performs a comparison of three deterministic and probabilistic NWP-based wind resource assessment methodologies: (i) a coarse resolution (0.5°Â 0.67°) global reanalysis data set, the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA); (ii) an analog ensemble methodology based on the MERRA, which provides both deterministic and probabilistic predictions; and (iii) a fine resolution (2-km) NWP data set, the Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit, based on the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Results show that: (i) as expected, the analog ensemble and WIND Toolkit perform significantly better than MERRA confirming their ability to downscale coarse estimates; (ii) the analog ensemble provides the best estimate of the multi-year wind distribution at seven of the nine sites, while the WIND Toolkit is the best at one site; (iii) the WIND Toolkit is more accurate in estimating the distribution of hourly wind speed differences, which characterizes the wind variability, at five of the available sites, with the analog ensemble being best at the remaining four locations; and (iv) the analog ensemble computational cost is negligible, whereas the WIND Toolkit requires large computational resources. Future efforts could focus on the combination of the analog ensemble with intermediate resolution (e.g., 10-15 km) NWP estimates, to considerably reduce the computational burden, while providing accurate deterministic estimates and reliable probabilistic assessments.

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Comparison of the economic impact of different wind power forecast systems for producers

Cited by 39 publications

References 9 publications

On the Use of Dual-Doppler Radar Measurements for Very Short-Term Wind Power Forecasts

On the Use of Dual-Doppler Radar Measurements for Very Short-Term Wind Power Forecasts

A novel application of an analog ensemble for short-term wind power forecasting

Comparison of numerical weather prediction based deterministic and probabilistic wind resource assessment methods

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