Comparison of extreme temperature response to 0.5 °C additional warming between dry and humid regions over East–central Asia

Abstract

The additional 0.5 °C warming from 1.5 to 2°C global target has a significant impact on the occurrence of extreme temperature events. While the arid and semi‐arid areas (ASA) and humid areas (HA) present different response characteristics to the additional global mean 0.5 °C warming due to their differences in thermal properties. In this study, both the stabilized and transient 1.5 °C (2 °C) global warming scenarios projected by the Community Earth System Model (CESM) are used to compare the extreme temperature responses between the ASA and HA to the 2 and 1.5 °C global warming targets over East–central Asia. The results indicate that cold fixed‐threshold indices (frost days [FD] and icing days [ID]) will decrease more rapidly in ASA, by approximately 10 days (1.5 °C) and 15 days (2 °C) compared to the historical period, respectively. Warm fixed‐threshold indices (summer days [SU] and tropical nights [TR]) will become more common in HA, especially southeast of China. Under 1.5 °C target, the increase of intensity indices is equal to the average temperature warming response (1.5 °C), while the additional 0.5 °C warming makes the response of intensity indices much greater than 0.5 °C. Under 0.5 °C warmer world, the daily temperature range (DTR) will experience a 0.5 °C increase in most HA and a 0.2–0.5 °C decrease in ASA during winter. As a whole, the additional 0.5 °C warming has an amplified effect and the 1.5 °C global warming target could reduce the extreme temperature events significantly over East–central Asia.

Extreme temperature indices in Eurasia in a CMIP6 multi‐model ensemble: Evaluation and projection

“…Warming limits of 1.5 and 2°C of global mean near‐surface temperature above the preindustrial level, which were defined by the Paris Agreement, are important international long‐term goals to combat climate change. Therefore, we consider the change in extreme temperatures under these target warming limits, as has also been done previously for some sub‐regions of Eurasia (e.g., King and Karoly, 2017; Xu et al ., 2017; Li et al ., 2018; Shi et al ., 2018; Zhang et al ., 2019). In addition, we also consider a situation whereby these two targets could not be achieved, such as global warming of 3.0°C.…”

Assessment of model performance of precipitation extremes over the mid-high latitude areas of Northern Hemisphere: from CMIP5 to CMIP6

“…The region of the mid-high latitudes of Asia (MHA; 34.5°-90°N, 60°-180°E), covered by snow and permafrost, is one of the most sensitive and vulnerable areas around the world in response to global warming, in which climate changes have begun to exert adverse impacts on local society, ecosystems, and human health (Tang, Zhang, and Francis 2013;Zhang et al 2019Zhang et al , 2020. It is thus urgent to evaluate model performance in simulating climate extremes in this region, such that valuable information can be provided to the public and local governments toward climate change mitigation and adaptation.…”

Response of Potential Evapotranspiration to Warming and Wetting in Northwest China

“…), T mean is the daily average temperature ( • C), u 2 is the wind speed at 2 m height (m•s −1 ), e s is the saturation vapor pressure (kPa), and e a is the actual vapor pressure (kPa). The following calculation should be noted: (1) the daily average temperature, T mean , is the average of the daily highest temperature (T max ) and lowest temperature (T min ), not the average value of the 24 h hourly (or four or eight times a day) observations; (2) as the equation for saturation vapor pressure is nonlinear, the average saturation vapor pressure of a given period (daily, ten-day, monthly) should be the average of the saturation vapor pressures calculated from the daily highest and lowest temperatures during that period; (3) in a period between one day and ten days, the soil heat capacity of the reference grassland is small enough that the daily G value can be neglected. The daily PET of 102 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2019 was calculated using Equation (1), and the multiyear average value was further obtained.…”

“…Northwest China, similar to other regions around the world, has been experiencing rising temperatures for more than a century since the Industrial Revolution, but the increase in temperature has been greater than that around the world; especially since the 1980s, the increase in temperature has accelerated significantly [2]. As part of the arid region of east Central Asia, this area is more sensitive to climate change and is ecologically vulnerable [3][4][5]. The precipitation in the eastern part of Northwest China is largely affected by the East Asian summer monsoon [6][7][8]; the water vapor in the west is mainly transported from the Atlantic Ocean by the westerly circulation system, which has clearly strengthened in the last thirty years [9], and provided favorable conditions for more precipitation [10].…”