Comparison of dysprosium security strategies in Japan for 2010–2030

Seo, Yuna; Morimoto, Shinichirou

doi:10.1016/j.resourpol.2013.10.007

Cited by 60 publications

(57 citation statements)

References 10 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Platinum and palladium in import/export sectors were estimated using Equations (1) and (2) in the same way as consumption amounts were estimated. The use (U ij ) was estimated by using Equation (3), where i is year, j is product, P ij is the platinum and palladium consumption of product j in year i, Im ij is the imported platinum and palladium of j in i, and Ex ij is the exported platinum and palladium of j in i [50].…”

Section: Usementioning

confidence: 99%

“…We compiled a bottom-up inventory of the domestic production and contents of platinum and palladium in each of a set of end-use products during 2001-2013. Then, we performed a demand forecast by way of multiple regression analysis using the global economic scenario SRES-B2 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [27,50,53] (Appendix A Table A2). SRES-B2 is characterized by an increasing population at a relatively slow rate, intermediate levels of economic development, and relatively slow and fragmented technological change.…”

Section: Historical Consumption and Demand Forecast Of Platinummentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Analyzing Platinum and Palladium Consumption and Demand Forecast in Japan

Seo

Morimoto

2017

Resources

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Platinum and palladium are used in small but essential quantities in a variety of advanced industrial sectors. Platinum and palladium are used as catalysts in various industrial sectors, especially in the car industry. However, their sources are typically concentrated in South Africa and Russia, and there are concerns about supply security. In terms of resource security, it is important to verify domestic platinum and palladium consumption trends and future demand. In order to understand the domestic platinum and palladium consumption trends in Japan, we tracked the historical platinum and palladium consumption structures from 2001 to 2013, applying a bottom-up approach, and illustrated recent domestic platinum and palladium flow by using a substance flow analysis. The results showed that catalytic converters (9.1-12.8 t) and jewelry (5.3-15.5 t) for platinum, and catalytic converters (14.2-20.0 t) and dental use (9.5-16.4 t) for palladium, have marked the biggest consumption sectors during 2001-2013, where the total consumption of platinum and palladium have fluctuated by 18.4-31.6 t for platinum and from 33.0-46.3 t for palladium. We also forecasted the demand for each end-use of both up to the year 2025 using multiple regression analysis. Our results suggest that platinum demand could decrease from 18.9 t in 2013 to 11.9 t in 2025 and palladium demand could slightly decrease from 33.0 t in 2013 to 13.8 t in 2025.

show abstract

Section: Usementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Historical Consumption and Demand Forecast Of Platinummentioning

confidence: 99%

Analyzing Platinum and Palladium Consumption and Demand Forecast in Japan

Seo

Morimoto

2017

Resources

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…These Dy content reductions are applied to non-clean-energy applications only, because the Dy content of clean energy applications is set endogenously. Reductions in Dy content such as these could reasonably occur as new technologies are adopted that either allow magnets to achieve the same high-temperature performance with lower amounts of Dy or allow application technologies to operate at lower temperatures (DOE, 2011;Seo and Morimoto, 2014). It should be noted that the Nd content of magnets is held constant in these scenarios.…”

Section: Alternative Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global critical materials markets: An agent-based modeling approach

et al. 2015

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

a b s t r a c tAs part of efforts to position the United States as a leader in clean energy technology production, the U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) issued two Critical Materials Strategy reports, which assessed 16 materials on the basis of their importance to clean energy development and their supply risk (DOE, 2010(DOE, , 2011. To understand the implications for clean energy of disruptions in supplies of critical materials, it is important to understand supply chain dynamics from mining to final product production. As a case study of critical material supply chains, we focus on the supply of two rare earth metals, neodymium (Nd) and dysprosium (Dy), for permanent magnets used in wind turbines, electric vehicles and other applications. We introduce GCMat, a dynamic agent-based model that includes interacting agents at five supply chain stages consisting of mining, metal refining, magnet production, final product production and demand. Agents throughout the supply chain make pricing, production and inventory management decisions. Deposit developers choose which deposits to develop based on market conditions and detailed data on 57 rare earth deposits. Wind turbine and electric vehicle producers choose from a set of possible production technologies that require different amounts of rare earths. We ran the model under a baseline scenario and four alternative scenarios with different demand and production technology inputs. Model results from 2010 to 2013 fit well with historical data. Projections through 2025 show a number of possible future price, demand, and supply trajectories. For each scenario, we highlight reasons for turning points under market conditions, for differences between Nd and Dy markets, and for differences between scenarios. Because GCMat can model causal dynamics and provide fine-grain representation of agents and their decisions, it provides explanations for turning points under market conditions that are not otherwise available from other modeling approaches. Our baseline projections show very different behaviors for Nd and Dy prices. Nd prices continue to drop and remain low even at the end of our simulation period as new capacity comes online and leads to a market in which production capacity outpaces demand. Dy price movements, on the other hand, change directions several times with several key turning points related to inventory behaviors of particular agents in the supply chain and asymmetric supply and demand trends. Scenario analyses show the impact of stronger demand growth for rare earths, and in particular finds that Nd price impacts are significantly delayed as compared to Dy. This is explained by the substantial excess production capacity for Nd in the early simulation years that keeps prices down. Scenarios that explore the impact of reducing the Dy content of magnets show the intricate interdependencies of these two markets as price trends for both rare earths reverse directions -reducing the Dy content of magnets reduces Dy demand, which drives down Dy prices and translates i...

show abstract

“…However, its demand in magnets is expected to increase significantly in the future [4,7,13,46]. Although there are increasing efforts to reduce the amount of Dy in the magnet while maintaining performance, the improvements are unlikely to affect metal demand in the near future [47][48][49].…”

Section: Background On Rare Earth Elementsmentioning

confidence: 99%