Comparing the Box-Jenkins Approach with the Exponentially Smoothed Forecasting Model Application to Hawaii Tourists

Geurts, Michael D.; Ibrahim, Izani

doi:10.1177/002224377501200208

Cited by 60 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…Commonly used time-series models include Exponential Smoothing (Geurts and Ibrahim 1975;1982;Burger et al 2001;Lim and McAleer 2001) and the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) (Burger et al 2001;Goh and Law 2002;Lim 2002;Lim and McAleer 2002;Cho 2003;Kulendran and Witt 2003a;2003b;Kim and Moosa 2005;Li et al 2005). The ARIMA model can be classified into the ARIMA intervention model and the seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) model.…”

Section: Forecasting Tourism Demandmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Impact of Visa-free Entry on Outbound Tourism: A Case Study of South Korean Travellers Visiting Japan

Lee

Song

Bendle

2010

Tourism Geographies

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Although visa-free entry is important to tourism flows across borders there has been limited academic research into the effects of this arrangement on international tourism demand. Using the ARIMA, the ARIMA intervention, Winters Exponential Smoothing and theStepwise Autoregressive models, this study examined the effect of visa-free entry on tourism demand between South Korea and Japan, and estimated the impact of this visa-free travel on tourism numbers and receipts. The results showed that for Koreans visiting Japan, introducing visa-free travel was statistically significant with a positive sign. In the first year tourists increased by 12.1 percent and receipts by $US246 million and in the second year tourists increased by 25 percent and receipts by $US792 million. The key finding is that in a market with strong effective demand, the influence of a change to visa-free entry could be greater than 20 percent. However, as individual, national and external reasons modulate each context, further research into the influence of visa controls on various established tourism markets is recommended. Résumé: L'impact de visites sans visa sur les départs de touristes : le cas des voyageurs sud coréens vers le JaponBien que les entrées qui n'exigent pas de visa aient une influence importante sur les flux de tourisme international, il existe peu de recherche académique quantà ces conséquences. Cetteétude examine, grâceà l'utilisation des modèles ARIMA, Intervention ARIMA, Aplanissement Exponentiel de Winters et d'étapes autorégressives, les effets du fait que l'on n'exige pas de visa sur les flux de touristes de la Corée du Sud vers le Japon ainsi que sur les recettes. Les résultats démontrent que pour les coréens qui se rendent au Japon, l'élimination du visa est statistiquement significative de façon positive. La première année le nombre de touristes a augmenté de 12.1 percent et les recettes d'US$246 millions et la deuxième année ces chiffres sont passésà 25 percent et US$792 millions. Le résultat le plus important est que dans un marché où la demande est effectivement forte, la suppression de visa peut causer une augmentation de jusqu'à 20 percent. Cependant, au vu de raisons individuelles, nationales et extérieures qui modulent chaque contexte, il est recommandé de faire plus de recherche sur l'influence de l'exigence ou non de visa dans les marchés touristiques déjàétablis. Mots-clés: Voyage sans visa, impact, demande touristique, prévisions, Corée du Sud, Japon Zusammenfassung: Die Auswirkung der visafreien Einreise auf den Ausreiseverkehr: Eine Fallstudie von Südkoreanischen Reisenden nach Japan Auch wenn eine visafreie Einreise wichtig für grenzüberschreitende Touristenströme ist, so existiert doch nur wenig akademische Forschungüber die Auswirkungen dieser Regelung auf die internationale Tourismusnachfrage. Unter Verwendung der ARIMA Verfahren, der ARIMA Verfahren mit Intervention, der exponentiellen Glättung nach Winters, und von stufenweise autoregressiven Modellen, untersucht diese Studie den Effekt von visafreie...

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Section: Forecasting Tourism Demandmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Geurts and Ibrahim (1975) compared the ARIMA model with Exponential Smoothing, finding that both models performed equally well in terms of forecasting accuracy. However, the Exponential Smoothing model was preferred to the ARIMA model because it is easier to use with relatively simple mathematical equations.…”

Section: Forecasting Tourism Demandmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impact of Visa-free Entry on Outbound Tourism: A Case Study of South Korean Travellers Visiting Japan

Lee

Song

Bendle

2010

Tourism Geographies

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“…The tourist to Hawaii time series was used by Geurts and Ibrahim (1975) in a forecasting effort. Bunn (1979) has also examined this time series and suggested methods to increase its accuracy, and this same effort was cited by Moriasty and Adams (1979) in a recent forecasting effort.…”

Section: Hawaii Tourist Time Seriesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the past, poor forecasting has resulted in some extremely unpleasant tourist experiences. Tourists with confirmed reservations have arrived from the mainland and have had to return immediately to the mainland without leaving the airport because of overbooking at hoteb (Geurts and Ibrahim 1975).…”

Section: Hawaii Tourist Time Seriesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Forecasting the Hawaiian Tourist Market

Geurts¹

1982

Journal of Travel Research

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ARMA Models and the Box-Jenkins Methodology

1997

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The purpose of this paper is to apply the Box±Jenkins methodology to ARIMA models and determine the reasons why in empirical tests it is found that the post-sample forecasting the accuracy of such models is generally worse than much simpler time series methods. The paper concludes that the major problem is the way of making the series stationary in its mean (i.e. the method of dierencing) that has been proposed by Box and Jenkins. If alternative approaches are utilized to remove and extrapolate the trend in the data, ARMA models outperform the models selected through Box±Jenkins methodology. In addition, it is shown that using ARMA models to seasonally adjusted data slightly improves post-sample accuracies while simplifying the use of ARMA models. It is also con®rmed that transformations slightly improve post-sample forecasting accuracy, particularly for long forecasting horizons. Finally, it is demonstrated that AR(1), AR(2) and ARMA(1,1) models can produce more accurate post-sample forecasts than those found through the application of Box± Jenkins methodology. # 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Comparing the Box-Jenkins Approach with the Exponentially Smoothed Forecasting Model Application to Hawaii Tourists

Abstract: This article compares the forecasting accuracy of two forecasting techniques: (1) Box-Jenkins, and (2) exponential smoothing. The comparison is made using the tourist to Hawaii time series. An analysis of both techniques is included.

Cited by 60 publications

References 8 publications

The Impact of Visa-free Entry on Outbound Tourism: A Case Study of South Korean Travellers Visiting Japan

The Impact of Visa-free Entry on Outbound Tourism: A Case Study of South Korean Travellers Visiting Japan

Forecasting the Hawaiian Tourist Market

ARMA Models and the Box-Jenkins Methodology

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