The Impact of Visa-free Entry on Outbound Tourism: A Case Study of South Korean Travellers Visiting Japan

Abstract

Although visa-free entry is important to tourism flows across borders there has been limited academic research into the effects of this arrangement on international tourism demand. Using the ARIMA, the ARIMA intervention, Winters Exponential Smoothing and theStepwise Autoregressive models, this study examined the effect of visa-free entry on tourism demand between South Korea and Japan, and estimated the impact of this visa-free travel on tourism numbers and receipts. The results showed that for Koreans visiting Japan, introducing visa-free travel was statistically significant with a positive sign. In the first year tourists increased by 12.1 percent and receipts by $US246 million and in the second year tourists increased by 25 percent and receipts by $US792 million. The key finding is that in a market with strong effective demand, the influence of a change to visa-free entry could be greater than 20 percent. However, as individual, national and external reasons modulate each context, further research into the influence of visa controls on various established tourism markets is recommended. Résumé: L'impact de visites sans visa sur les départs de touristes : le cas des voyageurs sud coréens vers le JaponBien que les entrées qui n'exigent pas de visa aient une influence importante sur les flux de tourisme international, il existe peu de recherche académique quantà ces conséquences. Cetteétude examine, grâceà l'utilisation des modèles ARIMA, Intervention ARIMA, Aplanissement Exponentiel de Winters et d'étapes autorégressives, les effets du fait que l'on n'exige pas de visa sur les flux de touristes de la Corée du Sud vers le Japon ainsi que sur les recettes. Les résultats démontrent que pour les coréens qui se rendent au Japon, l'élimination du visa est statistiquement significative de façon positive. La première année le nombre de touristes a augmenté de 12.1 percent et les recettes d'US$246 millions et la deuxième année ces chiffres sont passésà 25 percent et US$792 millions. Le résultat le plus important est que dans un marché où la demande est effectivement forte, la suppression de visa peut causer une augmentation de jusqu'à 20 percent. Cependant, au vu de raisons individuelles, nationales et extérieures qui modulent chaque contexte, il est recommandé de faire plus de recherche sur l'influence de l'exigence ou non de visa dans les marchés touristiques déjàétablis. Mots-clés: Voyage sans visa, impact, demande touristique, prévisions, Corée du Sud, Japon Zusammenfassung: Die Auswirkung der visafreien Einreise auf den Ausreiseverkehr: Eine Fallstudie von Südkoreanischen Reisenden nach Japan Auch wenn eine visafreie Einreise wichtig für grenzüberschreitende Touristenströme ist, so existiert doch nur wenig akademische Forschungüber die Auswirkungen dieser Regelung auf die internationale Tourismusnachfrage. Unter Verwendung der ARIMA Verfahren, der ARIMA Verfahren mit Intervention, der exponentiellen Glättung nach Winters, und von stufenweise autoregressiven Modellen, untersucht diese Studie den Effekt von visafreie...

Impact of economic policy on international tourism demand: the case of Abenomics

“…As expected, studies generally find a decrease in relative price in the inbound country increases tourist arrivals. Government policies such as tax credits for tourist expenditures and visa-free entry can also influence demand (Lee et al, 2010). Dimanche (2003) finds that the tax-free shopping program sponsored by the state of Louisiana can be used to attract more tourists and boost their spending on shopping.…”

“…Although there are unresolved issues regarding territory and events during the Japanese colonial period, a vigorous socio-economic and cultural exchange has arisen between the two countries (Lee et al, 2010). South Korea and Japan, for example, successfully co-hosted the 2002 World Cup and celebrated forty years of diplomatic relations by naming 2005 as the Korea-Japan Friendship Year.…”

“…Given this importance, it is no surprise that numerous international tourism demand studies have been conducted (Crouch, 1992;De Vita, 2014;Lee, Var, & Blaine, 1996;Song & Li, 2008). These studies focus on various determinants of tourism demand, including government-supported tourism (Balli, Balli, & Cebeci, 2013;Lee, Song, & Bendle, 2010), mega-events (Kang & Perdue, 1994;Lee, Song, & Mjelde, 2008), marketing efforts through National Tourism Organizations (Webster & Ivanov, 2007), and destination promotion (Law, Goh, & Pine, 2004;Lee, 1996). In addition to these determinants, economic conditions are significant determinants of international tourism demand (Prideaux, 2005).…”

New developments in tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting

“…Goh et al (2008) incorporated a leisure time index and a climate index into monthly demand forecasting and found that they have a stronger impact on tourist arrivals than economic factors. Lee et al (2010) and Song et al (2012b) revealed that visa restriction has a significant negative impact on inbound tourist flows, using South Korea to Japan, China inbound and Hong Kong inbound as their cases. Using a gravity model, Balli et al (2013) further identified that both the international export of Turkish soap operas and termination of the Turkish government's visa requirement policy have increased tourist inflow to Turkey.…”

US–Mexico border tourism and day trips: an aberration in globalization?

“…For instance the method has been used to estimate the influence of visa-free entry on Korean travel to Japan (Lee et al 2010a, b) as well as the impact of terrorist bombings in Bali on tourism (Lee et al 2010a(Lee et al , 2010b. 16 The ARIMA models that emerged from Box andJenkins' (1970, 1976) work form the core of any intervention analysis, and they have been very widely used in forecasting tourist demand more generally.…”