Comparative Seismic Risk Studies for German Earthquake Regions on the Basis of the European Macroseismic Scale EMS-98

Abstract

Within the framework of recent research projects, basic tools for GIS-based seismic risk assessment technologies were developed and applied to the building stock and regional particularities of German earthquake regions. Two study areas are investigated, being comparable by the level of seismic hazard and the hazard-consistent scenario events (related to mean return periods of 475, 2475 and 10000 years). Significant differences exist with respect to the number of inhabitants, the grade and extent of urbanisation, the quality and quantity of building inventory: the case study of Schmo¨lln in Eastern Thuringia seems to be representative for the majority of smaller towns in Germany, the case study of Cologne (Ko¨ln) stands for larger cities. Due to the similarities of hazard and scenario intensities, the considerable differences do not only require proper decisions concerning the appropriate methods and acceptable efforts, they enable conclusions about future research strategies and needs for disaster reduction management. Not least important, results can sharpen the focus of public interest. Seismic risk maps are prepared for different scenario intensities recognising the scatter and uncertainties of site-dependent ground motion and also of the applied vulnerability functions.The paper illustrates the impact of model assumptions and the step-wise refinements of input variables like site conditions, building stock or vulnerability functions on the distribution of expected building damage within the study areas. Furthermore, and in contrast to common research strategies, results support the conclusion that in the case of stronger earthquakes the damage will be of higher concentration within smaller cities like Schmo¨lln due to the site-amplification potential and/or the increased vulnerability of the building stock. The extent of damage will be pronounced by the large number of masonry buildings for which lower vulnerability classes have to be assigned. Due to the effect of deep sedimentary layers and the composition of building types, the urban centre of Cologne will be less affected by an earthquake of comparable intensity.

Geospatial Disaster Response during the Haiti Earthquake: A Case Study Spanning Airborne Deployment, Data Collection, Transfer, Processing, and Dissemination

“…The joint team agreed to use a damage scale that was developed several years ago in Europe, the European Macroseismic Scale 1998 (EMS-98) version (Grünthal et al, 1998;Schwarz et al, 2006;Musson et al, 2010), to ensure standardization of the resultant damage assessment product. The EMS-98 scale includes five damage grades: 1 -no visible damage; 2 -minor damage; 3 -moderate damage; 4 -very heavy damage; and 5 -destroyed (Grünthal et al, 1998).…”

Comparative Risk Assessments for the City of Cologne – Storms, Floods, Earthquakes

“…Considering the expected differences in the way that buildings will respond to earthquake shaking including factors like workmanship, state of maintenance etc., the most probable vulnerability class (A, B, C, D) was assigned to each building. Additionally, transitional classes (A-B, B-C, C-D) were introduced (Schwarz et al, 2004). This follows strictly the European Macroseismic Scale EMS-98 (Grünthal, 1998).…”

Erdbebenrisiko‐Kartierung für Deutschland

“…Dennoch hat sich ein wachsendes Interesse entwickelt, die seismische Vulnerabilität des existierenden Gebäudebestands besser zu verstehen (z. B. Sadegh-Azar [44], Schwarz et al [29], [35], [36], [45], Meskouris und Hinzen [46], Raschke [47]). Die in diesen Studien gewonnenen Erfahrungen sind in die Vulnerabilitäts-und Schadensanalyse der vorliegenden Studie eingeflossen.…”

“…Gemeindeklasse [29], [35], [36] auch hinweisen, dass der Gebäudebestand bevölkerungsreicher Gemeinden (urbane Gebiete) generell durch eine Zusammensetzung geringerer Vulnerabilität charakterisiert ist als kleinere Gemeinden (ländliche Regionen).…”

“…Prinzipiell Frühere Forschungsarbeiten zum Erdbebenrisiko in Teilen Deutschlands erfolgten durch Allmann et al [34] und Schwarz et al [29], [35], [36] Die räumliche Verteilung der seismischen Gefähr-dung ist der Karte in Bild 1 zu entnehmen, in der makroseismische Intensitäten für eine Nichtüberschrei-tenswahrscheinlichkeit von 90% in 50 Jahren dargestellt sind [1], [43]. Die Gefährdungsdaten, auf denen die Karte basiert, sind für ein 0,1°x0,1°Punktnetz berechnet worden.…”