Comparative occurrence rates for offshore oil spills

Anderson, C.M.; LaBelle, Robert P.

doi:10.1016/1353-2561(94)90021-3

Cited by 31 publications

(5 citation statements)

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“…On the other hand, the bias introduced by underreporting needs to be considered: The data set becomes rapidly less complete for smaller accidents, as underreporting becomes more likely, in addition geographical bias is larger for smaller accidents, that is, very severe events are reported globally, whereas the databases for smaller events in non OECD countries are less reliable. The year 1974 was chosen since it can be considered to be the time from which serious reporting on oil spills started …”

Section: Data: Severe Accident Database Ensadmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The year 1974 was chosen since it can be considered to be the time from which serious reporting on oil spills started. 30 ■ DATA: SPILL SOURCE CHARACTERIZATION Spill sources were categorized into four categories corresponding to functional steps along the oil chain: the data set "exploration/production" comprises spills during exploration and extraction, that is, spills from oil wells as well as drilling and exploration platforms and rigs, "ships" refers to tanker spills during transport of both crude oil and refined products, "pipelines" contains spills from both on-and offshore, crude and product pipelines, and "storage/refineries" comprise spills at fixed installations.…”

Section: ■ Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Risk of Large Oil Spills: A Statistical Analysis in the Aftermath of Deepwater Horizon

Eckle

Burgherr

Michaux

2012

Environ. Sci. Technol.

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The oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico that followed the explosion of the exploration platform Deepwater Horizon on 20 April 2010 was the largest accidental oil spill so far. In this paper we evaluate the risk of such very severe oil spills based on global historical data from our Energy-Related Severe Accident Database (ENSAD) and investigate if an accident of this size could have been "expected". We also compare the risk of oil spills from such accidents in exploration and production to accidental spills from other activities in the oil chain (tanker ship transport, pipelines, storage/refinery) and analyze the two components of risk, frequency and severity (quantity of oil spilled) separately. This detailed analysis reveals the differences in the structure of the risk between different spill sources, differences in trends over time and it allows in particular assessing the risk of very severe events such as the Deepwater Horizon spill. Such top down risk assessment can serve as an important input to decision making by complementing bottom up engineering risk assessment and can be combined with impact assessment in environmental risk analysis.

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Section: Data: Severe Accident Database Ensadmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: ■ Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk of Large Oil Spills: A Statistical Analysis in the Aftermath of Deepwater Horizon

Eckle

Burgherr

Michaux

2012

Environ. Sci. Technol.

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“…The OSRA model estimates the probability of large oil spills occurring from the prospective production sites and transportation routes of a specific volume over the lifetime of the scenario. The estimate of large spill occurrence at the production sites or transportation routes is based on the projected oil production volume, transportation scenarios, and historical spill occurrence in the U.S. OCS [6][7][8]. Finally, the OSRA model uses the conditional probability and estimated oil spill occurrence relative to the production volume and transport scenarios to derive the combined probability.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Improved Method to Estimate the Probability of Oil Spill Contact to Environmental Resources in the Gulf of Mexico

Zhen¹,

Johnson²

2019

JMSE

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The oil spill risk analysis (OSRA) model is a tool used by the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) to evaluate oil spill risks to biological, physical, and socioeconomic resources that could be exposed to oil spill contact from oil and gas leasing, exploration, or development on the U.S. Outer Continental Shelf (OCS). Using long-term hindcast winds and ocean currents, the OSRA model generates hundreds of thousands of trajectories from hypothetical oil spill locations and derives the probability of contact to these environmental resources in the U.S. OCS. This study generates probability of oil spill contact maps by initiating trajectories from hypothetical oil spill points over the entire planning areas in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico (GOM) OCS and tabulating the contacts over the entire waters in the GOM. Therefore, a probability of oil spill contact database that stores information of the spill points and contacts can be created for a given set of wind and current data such that the probability of oil spill contact to any environmental resources from future leasing areas can be estimated without a rerun of the OSRA model. The method can be applied to other OCS regions and help improve BOEM’s decision-making process.

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“…McMahon Anderson & LaBelle (1990) estimated the occurrence rates of accidental oil spills on the US outer continental shelf. Years later, this work was improved and extended (McMahon Anderson & LaBelle, 1994;McMahon Anderson & LaBelle, 2000). The ultimate estimate proposed in these analyses were 0.90 and 0.40 tanker spills greater than 1000 bbl (= 159 m 3 ) for every 1.0 × 10 9 bbl transported by tanker.…”

Section: Non-port-specific Papers and Reports About Oil Spillsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Det Norske Veritas (2001) estimate the frequency of oil leaks around floating production, storage and offloading installations, using several base probabilities proceeding from different studies like McMahon Anderson & LaBelle (1994).…”

Section: Frequencies Probabilities Event Treesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Contributions to the risk assessment of major accidents in port areas

Ronza

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Esta tesis se presenta como un conjunto de artículos (ya publicados en revistas internacionales, con la excepción del Artículo 6) precedidos por una serie de capítulos introductorios. 1. Introducción. Describe los puertos en relación al análisis del riesgo, al manejo de materias peligrosas (MMPP) y a leyes y convenciones internacionales relevantes. 2. Análisis bibliográfico. Lista trabajos sobre materias peligrosas, vertidos de hidrocarburos y análisis del riesgo de accidentes portuarios, tocando varias técnicas de evaluación del riesgo. 3. Objetivos y metodología. Esta capítulo define los objetivos de la investigación, es decir analizar los sistemas portuarios desde el punto de vista de la evaluación del riesgo de manipulación de MMPP y diseñar herramientas para evaluar dicho riesgo. Además se detallan la metodología empleada y los principales resultados para cada artículo incluido en la tesis. 4. Conclusiones. Artículos Artículo 1 – A Survey of Accidents in Ports (Loss Prevention Bulletin, 183, pp. 23-28, 2005). Presenta los resultados de un análisis histórico de 1033 accidentes, acerca de varios aspectos (tipo y causa de los accidentes, consecuencias sobre la población, etc.). Artículo 2 – Predicting the Frequency of Accidents in Port Areas by Developing Event Trees from Historical Analysis (Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries, 16, pp. 551–560, 2003). Se utilizó el análisis histórico −sobre una muestra parecida a la del Artículo 1− identificando secuencias accidentales, es decir árboles de eventos generales. Se determinó a continuación la frecuencia de algún típico accidente portuario, demostrando que los árboles propuestos pueden utilizarse en el análisis cuantitativo del riesgo (ACR). Artículo 3 – Using Transportation Accident Databases to Investigate Ignition and Explosion Probabilities of Flammable Spills (Journal of Hazardous Materials, 146(3), pp. 106–123, 2007). Se analiza la literatura especializada sobre probabilidad de ignición y explosión. Se presentan los resultados de la investigación de varias decenas de miles de registros accidentales procedentes de dos bases de datos de vertidos/accidentes de organismos federales estadounidenses. Se proponen ecuaciones para predecir la probabilidad de ignición y explosión a partir de la cantidad y de la sustancia vertida. Artículo 4 – A Quantitative Risk Analysis Approach to Port Hydrocarbon Logistics (J. Haz. Mat., 128(1), pp. 10-24). Se presenta un método para llevar a cabo ACRs de terminales de hidrocarburos, que tiene en cuenta vertidos menores y graves. Se propone una técnica simplificada para el cálculo de la frecuencia de los accidentes y se da un ejemplo de aplicación, basado en un estudio llevado a cabo en el Puerto de Barcelona. Artículo 5 – Consequences of Major Accidents: Assessing the Number of Injured People (J. Haz. Mat., 133(1-3), pp. 46-52). El ACR requiere que se estime el número de muertos de los accidentes. El número de heridos, si bien importante, se evalúa raras veces, ya que supone un esfuerzo importante. En este artículo se utilizó un conjunto de registros accidentales para definir una relación entre el número de muertos y de heridos. Se utilizaron el análisis de los componentes principales y el cluster analysis, obteniendo el número verosímil de heridos en función del número de muertos. Artículo 6 – Economic Valuation of Damages Originated by Major Accidents in Port Areas (J. Loss Prev. Proc. Ind., en impresión). Se presenta un procedimiento para estimar el coste de los daños sufridos por la población, las instalaciones y el medio ambiente como consecuencia de accidentes en puertos. Se proponen niveles de compensación económica para daños a personas. Se consideran asimismo los daños al medio ambiente (atmósfera, agua, fauna). Se plantean costes de instalaciones y edificios afectados. Finalmente, se analizan las pérdidas debidas a la parada de actividades y a los costes indirectos. This thesis is structured as a series of papers, all but one already published in international journals, preceded by a series of introductive sections. 1. Introduction. Port areas are described as related to risk assessment, handling of hazardous materials, accidents, relevant regulations and international conventions, and security. 2. Bibliographic survey. References are collected above all on port-HazMat topics, i.e. oil spills and risk assessment of port accidents, touching various risk assessment techniques. 3. Objectives, methodology and main results. This chapter defines the objectives of the research, i.e. to analyse port systems from the point of view of risk assessment of HazMat handling and to design proper risk assessment tools. Moreover, it lists the methodology followed and the major results obtained for each of the papers included in the thesis. 4. Conclusions. Papers Paper 1 – A Survey of Accidents in Ports (Loss Prevention Bulletin, 183, pp. 23-28, 2005). A historical analysis of 1,000+ port accidents was carried out allowing for various aspects (type and cause of accidents, consequences on people, etc.). The relative importance of diverse types of accidents was studied. Paper 2 – Predicting the Frequency of Accidents in Port Areas by Developing Event Trees from Historical Analysis (Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries, 16, pp. 551–560, 2003). Historical analysis of a sample of port accidents similar to that of Paper 1 was used to identify accident sequences, i.e. general port accident scenario event trees. The frequency of some typical port accidents was then determined, showing that the event trees proposed can be used in QRA. Paper 3 – Using Transportation Accident Databases to Investigate Ignition and Explosion Probabilities of Flammable Spills (Journal of Hazardous Materials, 146(3), pp. 106–123, 2007). Literature analysis of ignition and explosion probability data is performed. The results of a scrutiny of some tens of thousands of records obtained from two vast spill databases are reported. Equations are proposed to predict the ignition and explosion probability as a function of the amount and the substance spilled. Paper 4 – A Quantitative Risk Analysis Approach to Port Hydrocarbon Logistics (J. Haz. Mat., 12 (1), pp. 10-24). A method is presented to perform QRA on hydrocarbon terminals. The approach accounts for minor and massive spills due to loading arm failures and hull ruptures. A shortcut approach for frequency calculation is proposed. An example application is given, based on a pilot study conducted in the Port of Barcelona. Paper 5 – Consequences of Major Accidents: Assessing the Number of Injured People (J. Haz. Mat., 133(1-3), pp. 46-52). QRA usually requires the estimation of the number of fatalities of accidents. The number of people injured, although important, is seldom evaluated, since this entails significant effort. A set of accident records were used to define a relationship between the number of people killed and the number of people injured. Principal component and clustering analyses were applied, thus obtaining expressions estimating the probable number of injured people as a function of the number of fatalities. Paper 6 – Economic Valuation of Damages Originated by Major Accidents in Port Areas (J. Loss Prev. Proc. Ind., in press). A procedure is presented to estimate the cost of damages suffered by people, equipment and the environment in consequence of port accidents. Economic compensation is proposed for damage to people, including fatal victims, injured victims and evacuees. Environmental harm is also considered, allowing for damage to the atmosphere, soil, water and fauna. Subsequently, estimates of the cost of the equipment and buildings affected are proposed. Finally, an assessment of the loss of profits due to activity breakdown and indirect costs is analysed.

show abstract

Comparative occurrence rates for offshore oil spills

Cited by 31 publications

References 1 publication

Risk of Large Oil Spills: A Statistical Analysis in the Aftermath of Deepwater Horizon

Risk of Large Oil Spills: A Statistical Analysis in the Aftermath of Deepwater Horizon

An Improved Method to Estimate the Probability of Oil Spill Contact to Environmental Resources in the Gulf of Mexico

Contributions to the risk assessment of major accidents in port areas

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