An Improved Method to Estimate the Probability of Oil Spill Contact to Environmental Resources in the Gulf of Mexico

Zhen, Li; Johnson, W. R.

doi:10.3390/jmse7020041

Cited by 11 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 47 publications

(69 reference statements)

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“…When impacts are unplanned, such as an oil spill or a species introduction, it might still be possible to pick sites based on risk models. For example oil spill models use information about potential sources and ocean currents to identify sites at high and low risk of spilled oil (e.g., the General NOAA Operational Modeling Environment; Al Shami et al 2017, Guo 2017, Li and Johnson 2019), which could form the basis for choices about where to monitor. However, when impacts are not predictable, or when a monitoring is not intended to address a specific anticipated impact (e.g., Davis 2005), then managers might wish to select sites that are either particularly sensitive, or of particular interest, as this is where impact assessments will be most relevant.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Improving the ability of a BACI design to detect impacts within a kelp‐forest community

Rassweiler

Okamoto

Reed

et al. 2021

Ecological Applications

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Distinguishing between human impacts and natural variation in abundance remains difficult because most species exhibit complex patterns of variation in space and time. When ecological monitoring data are available, a before-after-control-impact (BACI) analysis can control natural spatial and temporal variation to better identify an impact and estimate its magnitude. However, populations with limited distributions and confounding spatial-temporal dynamics can violate core assumptions of BACI-type designs. In this study, we assessed how such properties affect the potential to identify impacts. Specifically, we quantified the conditions under which BACI analyses correctly (or incorrectly) identified simulated anthropogenic impacts in a spatially and temporally replicated data set of fish, macroalgal, and invertebrate species found on nearshore subtidal reefs in southern California, USA. We found BACI failed to assess very localized impacts, and had low power but high precision when assessing regionwide impacts. Power was highest for severe impacts of moderate spatial scale, and impacts were most easily detected in species with stable, widely distributed populations. Serial autocorrelation in the data greatly inflated false impact detection rates, and could be partly controlled for statistically, while spatial synchrony in dynamics had no consistent effect on power or false detection rates. Unfortunately, species that offer high power to detect real impacts were also more likely to detect impacts where none had occurred. However, considering power and false detection rates together can identify promising indicator species, and collectively analyzing data for similar species improved the net ability to assess impacts. These insights set expectations for the sizes and severities of impacts that BACI analyses can detect in real systems, point to the importance of serial autocorrelation (but not of spatial synchrony), and indicate how to choose the species, and groups of species, that can best identify impacts.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Improving the ability of a BACI design to detect impacts within a kelp‐forest community

Rassweiler

Okamoto

Reed

et al. 2021

Ecological Applications

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“…Monitoring and understanding the changes of sea ice in the U.S. Arctic is even more critical as the pace of climate change is accelerating (https://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/ (accessed on 10 December 2020)). BOEM hopes to incorporate results from field observations to improve the parametrization of hydrodynamic models within a five-to seven-year time frame to better support in-house OSRA modeling efforts [182]. The state-of-the-science High Resolution Modeling of the Gulf of Mexico (Section 3.1.5) will likely reveal the submesoscale circulation patterns that are previously undocumented and have few observations to validate model results (Eric Chassignet, personal communication).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Multifaceted Approach to Advance Oil Spill Modeling and Physical Oceanographic Research at the United States Bureau of Ocean Energy Management

Smith

DuFore

et al. 2021

JMSE

Self Cite

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The Environmental Studies Program (ESP) at the United States Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) is funded by the United States Congress to support BOEM’s mission, which is to use the best available science to responsibly manage the development of the Nation’s offshore energy and mineral resources. Since its inception in 1973, the ESP has funded over $1 billion of multidisciplinary research across four main regions of the United States Outer Continental Shelf: Gulf of Mexico, Atlantic, Alaska, and Pacific. Understanding the dynamics of oil spills and their potential effects on the environment has been one of the primary goals of BOEM’s funding efforts. To this end, BOEM’s ESP continues to support research that improves oil spill modeling by advancing our understanding and the application of meteorological and oceanographic processes to improve oil spill modeling. Following the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in 2010, BOEM has invested approximately $28 million on relevant projects resulting in 73 peer-reviewed journal articles and 42 technical reports. This study describes the findings of these projects, along with the lessons learned and research information needs identified. We also present a path forward for BOEM’s oil spill modeling and physical oceanographic research.

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“…The drifters deployed by Androulidakis et al [8] [22]. The effect of two different oil droplet size distribution on the horizontal drift and vertical mixing is discussed.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The DeepWater Horizon Oil Slick: High Resolution Model Simulations of River Front Effects, Initialized and Verified by Satellite Observations

Hole¹,

Dagestad²,

Röhrs³

et al. 2019

Preprint

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The effect of river fronts on oil slick transport has been demonstrated using high resolution forcing models and a fully fledged oil drift model, OpenOil. The model system is used to simulate the 2010 DeepWater Horizon oil spill. Metocean forcing data are taken from the GoM-HYCOM 1/50° ocean model with realistic river input and ECMWF global forecast products of wind and wave parameters with 1/8° resolution. The simulations are initialized from satellite observations of the surface oil patch. OpenOil includes most of the relevant processes, such as emulsification, evaporation, wave entrainment, stranding and droplet formation. The model takes account of the actual oil type and properties, using the ADIOS oil weathering database of NOAA. The effect of using a newly developed parameterization for oil droplet size distribution is studied and compared to a traditional algorithm. Although the algorithms provide different distributions for a single wave breaking event, it is found that the net difference after long simulations is negligible, indicating that the outcome is robust regarding the choice of parameterization. That indicates that the wave entrainment, vertical mixing and re-surfacing mechanisms that are part of OpenOil are more important for determining the final droplet size spectrum than the spectrum prescribed for individual wave breaking events. In both cases, the size of the droplets controls how much oil is present at the surface and hence are subject to wind and Stokes drift. The effect of removing river outflow in the ocean model is investigated in order to showcase effects of river induced fronts on oil spreading. A consistent effect on the amount and location of stranded oil is found, and considerable impact of river induced fronts is seen on the location of the surface oil patch. During a case with large river outflow (May 20-27, 2010), the total amount of stranded oil is reduced by about 50% in the simulation with no river input. The results compares well with satellite observations of the surface oil patch.

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An Improved Method to Estimate the Probability of Oil Spill Contact to Environmental Resources in the Gulf of Mexico

Cited by 11 publications

References 47 publications

Improving the ability of a BACI design to detect impacts within a kelp‐forest community

Improving the ability of a BACI design to detect impacts within a kelp‐forest community

A Multifaceted Approach to Advance Oil Spill Modeling and Physical Oceanographic Research at the United States Bureau of Ocean Energy Management

The DeepWater Horizon Oil Slick: High Resolution Model Simulations of River Front Effects, Initialized and Verified by Satellite Observations

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