Comparative Analysis of the Energy Sector Development Trends and Forecast of Final Energy Demand in the Baltic States

Abstract

The paper provides a comparative analysis of economic growth in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania and discusses differences in development of the main sectors during the period 2000–2016. Based on detailed analysis of energy sector development, the driving factors influencing changes in primary energy consumption in each country and in the Baltic region are discovered. Increase of renewable energy sources (RES) consumption in the Baltic region over this period by 73.6% is emphasized. The paper presents valuable insights from analysis of trends in final energy consumption by sectors of the national economies, branches of the manufacturing sector, and by energy carriers. Long-term relationships between economic growth and final energy consumption are established. An econometric model was applied to predict final energy demand in the Baltic States for the 2020 horizon. It is emphasized that growing activities in the manufacturing and transport sectors will cause increase of final energy demand in all three countries. Based on detailed analysis of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions trends some positive shifts are shown and the necessity of new policies in the transport sector and agriculture is identified. Changes of emission intensity indicators are examined and a potential for decoupling of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from economic growth in Estonia is indicated.

Renewable Energy, Economic Growth and Economic Development Nexus: A Bibliometric Analysis

“…As in the case of the BRICS, European countries were studied separately: Portugal by [84]. Portugal, Spain, Denmark and the USA by [85], Ukraine by [86,87], Turkey by [88,89], Romania by [90], Czech Republic and Slovakia by [91], Wales by [92], Poland by [93,94], Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania by [95], Scotland by [96] and Russia [97]. The American continent, to be more precise, Latin America, was also the target of research by [98][99][100][101].…”

Analyzing the Impact of Energy Imports, Fuel Substitution and Technological Change on Real Gdp: A Panel Data Study of Asean Countries

“…One of the major changes was seen in the patterns of demand of energy resources. The demand of oil got reduced to 37.6% from 47.3% (Miskinis et al, 2019). Use of alternate sources, exploitation and production were developed and sought.…”

The Role of Renewable Energy Sources in Dynamics of Energy-Related GHG Emissions in the Baltic States

“…Based on the analysis presented by Ross et al [17], an increase in the RES share and the energy efficiency improvement were identified as the main tools for fulfilling these targets. Furthermore, the need for in-depth analysis and implementation of new policies and technological changes was revealed by Miskinis et al [18].…”

“…To have an in-depth comparison of actual RES deployment in separate sectors, detailed data obtained from statistical offices of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania were examined. Additionally, the harmonisation of data from national statistics was performed, considering differences in each country's energy balance construction principles, which were revealed in [18]. The harmonised data enabled us to prove their comparability across three countries and sectors of the national economies.…”