Comparable frequency of hepatocellular carcinoma in cirrhosis of different aetiology

Mandelli, C.; Fraquelli, Mirella; Barisani, Donatella; Piperno, Alberto; Braga, Mario; Buracco, Paolo; Aimo, Gianpiero; Conte, Dario

doi:10.1097/00042737-199412000-00011

Cited by 9 publications

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“…In this model, the infection of 30% of the subjects resolved within a year after infection, while 70% progressed to chronic hepatitis. [15][16][17][18] The annual progression from cirrhosis to HCC was set at 4%, [19][20][21][22][23][24][25] and that from HCC to death from HCC at 33%, based on reported 1-year survival rates. 26,27 We also assumed that throughout the natural history, patients died from the same causes of death as the general population, and at the same rate.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…19 In the initial version of the model, we, like previous authors, 28,29 set the transition probability from chronic hepatitis to cirrhosis to a single value. Because evidence suggests that sex and age are risk factors, 2,30-33 we finally expressed the annual transition probability, p s,a , as a function of sex (s) and age class (a) (20,(21)(22)(23)(24)(25)(26)(27)(28)(29)(30)(31)(32)(33)(34)(35)(36)(37)(38)(39)(40), 41-50, 51-60, 61-70, Ͼ70). These probabilities were unknowns that we had to estimate.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…p s,a are probabilities depending on sex and on six age classes (20, 21-40, 41-50, 51-60, 61-70, Ͼ70) to be estimated. 15 Koretz 1993 (71%) 16 Tremolada 1991 (73%) 17 Tremolada 1992 (77%) 18 Transition probability (per year) from cirrhosis to death from liver failure 0.04 Fattovich 1997 19 Transition probability (per year) from cirrhosis to HCC 0.04 Fattovich 1997 (1.4%) 19 Takano 1995 (2%) 20 Benvegnu 1994 (3%) 21 Mandelli 1994 (3.8-5%) 22 Serfaty 1998 (3-7%) 23 Ikeda 1993 (4-8%) 24 Tsai 1997 (7%) 25 Transition probability (per year) from HCC to death from HCC 0. 33 Ng 1995 (1-year survival of 70%) 26 The Liver Cancer Study Group of Japan 1990 (1-year survival of 67%) 27 HEPATOLOGY Vol.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modeling the hepatitis C virus epidemic in france

et al. 1999

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A backcalculation approach allows a reconstruction of the history of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in France and predictions of mortality from hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) related to the virus. The model uses information from the literature about the natural history of the disease, epidemiological data about infected subjects in three French cohorts, and mortality data from national statistics. It seeks to determine the annual transition probabilities from chronic hepatitis to cirrhosis and the HCV incidence per year in the past. These unknowns are found by fitting the observed deaths from HCC that are attributable to HCV. Optimal values for these unknowns then allow to project the number of HCC deaths attributable to HCV for each year through 2025 (for patients infected before 1996). The model traces the HCV epidemic in France back to around the 1940s. It predicts that HCC mortality related to HCV will continue to increase through 2020 in the absence of treatment, with a 150% increase in the yearly incidence among men and 200% among women. The model also confirms that progression to cirrhosis depends strongly on sex and age. At any age, the annual probability of progression is 10 times greater for men than for women. Moreover, for men aged between 61 and 70 years, this probability is 300 times greater than that for men aged between 21 and 40 years. (HEPATOLOGY 1999;29:1596-1601.)

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modeling the hepatitis C virus epidemic in france

et al. 1999

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“…Annual incidences of hepatocellular carcinoma development in cirrhotics of 2±5% have been found in most series (Cottone et al 1994;Mandelli et al 1994). In addition to macronodular cirrhosis, case-control and prevalence studies have identi®ed alcohol abuse (Austin et al 1985;Yu et al 1988) and infection by the hepatitis B virus (HBV; Szmuness et al 1978;Lok and Lai 1988) and hepatitis C virus (HCV; Kew et al 1990;Goritsas et al 1995) as risk factors for the development of hepatocellular carcinoma.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In addition to macronodular cirrhosis, case-control and prevalence studies have identi®ed alcohol abuse (Austin et al 1985;Yu et al 1988) and infection by the hepatitis B virus (HBV; Szmuness et al 1978;Lok and Lai 1988) and hepatitis C virus (HCV; Kew et al 1990;Goritsas et al 1995) as risk factors for the development of hepatocellular carcinoma. However, longitudinal studies assessing the in¯uence of etiological factors in patients with cirrhosis have shown con¯icting results (Colombo et al 1991;Ikeda et al 1993;BenvegnuÁ et al 1994;Mandelli et al 1994).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Incidence and risk factors for hepatocellular carcinoma in 967 patients with cirrhosis

Olmo

Serra

Rodríguez

et al. 1998

Journal of Cancer Research and Clinical Oncology

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Hepatitis C and hepatocellular carcinoma

1997

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Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is now recognized toEPIDEMIOLOGY OF HCV-RELATED HCC be a major risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), HCV-related HCC appears to be most prevalent in areas evidenced by finding both antibody to HCV (anti-HCV) and with an intermediate rate of HCC such as southern Europe HCV RNA in serum of a substantial proportion of patients and Japan, whereas in the countries where HCC is most with HCC around the world and by the progression of liver common, infection with the hepatitis B virus (HBV) is the disease to cirrhosis and HCC in individual patients infected dominant cause of HCC (Fig. 2). Thus, in Italy, Spain, and with HCV. There seems to be an incubation period of two to Japan, between 50% and 75% of cases of HCC are associated three decades on average in most cases of HCV-related HCC. with HCV infection. Not all countries in southern Europe HCV infection usually results in development of HCC via are the same in this regard-in Greece, for instance, fewer cirrhosis, although the possibility of direct carcinogenic ef-than 20% of patients with HCC were found to be anti-HCV fects of HCV is still under study. Possible additional risk positive. 12factors include infection with HCV genotype 1b, alcohol conInterestingly, in the United States, the association with sumption, and co-infection with the hepatitis B virus. Esti-HCV infection is variable depending on the region in quesmates of the development of HCC among patients with cirrho-tion. A report from southern Florida seems to represent one sis of all types range between 1% and 4% per year. Assuming extreme where more than 50% of cases were seropositive for that 20% of patients with chronic hepatitis C go on to develop anti-HCV. 5 Many of the patients included in this study were cirrhosis over a 10-year period, between 1.9% and 6.7% of all of Hispanic ethnic origin. At the other extreme, very few patients with chronic hepatitis C can be expected to develop patients with HCC from Alaska appear to have HCV infection HCC over the first two decades of infection. Although tests (McMahon B, personal communication, June 1995). Rather, are available to screen for early HCC, the results of treating HBV appears to be the dominant etiologic factor in this rethese small tumors have been disappointing. Thus, it is imper-gion. Only 16% of a referral population with HCC studied ative that cost-effective means be developed for screening at Johns Hopkins Hospital in Baltimore had anti-HCV in and prevention of HCV-related HCC. (HEPATOLOGY 1997;26 serum. 13 In most cases, this could be confirmed with a sup-(Suppl 1):34S-38S.)plementary assay for anti-HCV and by the finding of HCV RNA in serum. 15 The only published data from a true population-based study come from southern California, where Infection with the hepatitis C virus (HCV) is now known among 111 non-Asian patients with HCC in Los Angeles to be a major risk factor for the development of hepatocellu-County, 37 (33%) had anti-HCV in serum. 6 lar carcinoma (HCC). This realization began wit...

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Comparable frequency of hepatocellular carcinoma in cirrhosis of different aetiology

Cited by 9 publications

References 0 publications

Modeling the hepatitis C virus epidemic in france

Modeling the hepatitis C virus epidemic in france

Incidence and risk factors for hepatocellular carcinoma in 967 patients with cirrhosis

Hepatitis C and hepatocellular carcinoma

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