Modeling the hepatitis C virus epidemic in france

Deuffic, Sylvie; Buffat, Laurent; Poynard, Thierry; Valleron, Alain‐Jacques

doi:10.1002/hep.510290528

Cited by 191 publications

(127 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…While a few studies have used mathematical models to backcalculate historical incidence from contemporary patterns of HCV seroprevalence [17][18][19], the majority of evidence for HCV transmission before 1989 has come from the evolutionary analysis of virus gene sequences collected in the last two decades of the twentieth century. Using phylogenetic, molecular clock and coalescent methods, these studies have revealed a long and complex history of transmission that began substantially before the mid-twentieth century (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evolutionary analysis of hepatitis C virus gene sequences from 1953

Gray

Tanaka

Takebe

et al. 2013

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

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Reconstructing the transmission history of infectious diseases in the absence of medical or epidemiological records often relies on the evolutionary analysis of pathogen genetic sequences. The precision of evolutionary estimates of epidemic history can be increased by the inclusion of sequences derived from ‘archived’ samples that are genetically distinct from contemporary strains. Historical sequences are especially valuable for viral pathogens that circulated for many years before being formally identified, including HIV and the hepatitis C virus (HCV). However, surprisingly few HCV isolates sampled before discovery of the virus in 1989 are currently available. Here, we report and analyse two HCV subgenomic sequences obtained from infected individuals in 1953, which represent the oldest genetic evidence of HCV infection. The pairwise genetic diversity between the two sequences indicates a substantial period of HCV transmission prior to the 1950s, and their inclusion in evolutionary analyses provides new estimates of the common ancestor of HCV in the USA. To explore and validate the evolutionary information provided by these sequences, we used a new phylogenetic molecular clock method to estimate the date of sampling of the archived strains, plus the dates of four more contemporary reference genomes. Despite the short fragments available, we conclude that the archived sequences are consistent with a proposed sampling date of 1953, although statistical uncertainty is large. Our cross-validation analyses suggest that the bias and low statistical power observed here likely arise from a combination of high evolutionary rate heterogeneity and an unstructured, star-like phylogeny. We expect that attempts to date other historical viruses under similar circumstances will meet similar problems.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evolutionary analysis of hepatitis C virus gene sequences from 1953

Gray

Tanaka

Takebe

et al. 2013

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

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“…The higher estimates, however, continue to be used to project disease burden at a population level. 10 To try to gain a better understanding of the course of disease in chronic HCV infection, including the impact of different methodologic designs on disease progression estimates, we undertook a systematic review of available published studies of HCV natural history. …”

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confidence: 99%

Estimating progression to cirrhosis in chronic hepatitis C virus infection

et al. 2001

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To gain a clearer understanding of the rate of progression to cirrhosis and its determinants in chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, a systematic review of published epidemiologic studies that incorporated assessment for cirrhosis has been undertaken. Inclusion criteria were more than 20 cases of chronic HCV infection, and information on either age of subjects or duration of infection. Of 145 studies examined, 57 fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Least-squares linear regression was employed to estimate rates of progression to cirrhosis, and to examine for factors associated with more rapid disease progression in 4 broad study categories: 1) liver clinic series (number of studies ‫؍‬ 33); 2) posttransfusion cohorts (n ‫؍‬ 5); 3) blood donor series (n ‫؍‬ 10); and 4) community-based cohorts (n ‫؍‬ 9). Estimates of progression to cirrhosis after 20 years of chronic HCV infection were 22% (95% CI, 18%-26%) for liver clinic series, 24% (11%-37%) for posttransfusion cohorts, 4% (1%-7%) for blood donor series, and 7% (4%-10%) for community-based cohorts. Factors that were associated with more rapid disease progression included older age at HCV infection, male gender, and heavy alcohol intake. Even after accounting for these factors, progression estimates were much higher for cross-sectional liver clinic series. Selection biases probably explain the higher estimates of disease progression in this group of studies. Community-based cohort studies are likely to provide a more representative basis for estimating disease progression at a population level. These suggest that for persons who acquire HCV infection in young adulthood, less than 10% are estimated to develop cirrhosis within 20 years. (HEPATOLOGY 2001;34:809-816.)The majority of persons with hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection progress to chronic infection, which can lead to liver fibrosis and the subsequent occurrence of cirrhosis, liver failure, and hepatocellular carcinoma. 1 However, it is unclear what proportion of persons will develop HCV-related hepatic complications and who is most at risk of progression. The likelihood of progression can influence choice about therapy for the individual, and is a fundamental factor in predicting disease burden at a population level.Because chronic HCV infection is largely asymptomatic and runs a protracted and highly variable course, it has been difficult to reliably measure disease progression in epidemiologic studies. 2 Early studies in blood-transfusion recipients and liver clinic patients seemed to indicate that cirrhosis would develop in 20% to 50% within 20 years of acquiring HCV infection. 3,4 Then, several more recent studies suggested progression rates that were much lower, of the order of 2% to 10%. 5-9 Some interpreted these discrepancies as being caused by different distributions of factors associated with more rapid disease progression, such as age at HCV infection, gender, and source of HCV infection, between the study populations. The higher estimates, however, continue to be used to project disease bur...

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“…British Journal of Cancer (2008) The aetiology of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) includes excessive alcohol consumption and chronic infection with the hepatitis B or C virus. The incidence of HCC has increased in developed countries worldwide (Deuffic et al, 1999;El-Serag and Mason, 1999;Law et al, 2000), but data are limited on its cause. However, modelling initiatives have projected increasing numbers of HCC deaths attributable to hepatitis B and/or hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection (Deuffic-Burban et al, 2004Sweeting et al, 2007).…”

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A record-linkage study of the development of hepatocellular carcinoma in persons with hepatitis C infection in Scotland

et al. 2008

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We investigated trends in first-time hospital admissions and deaths attributable to hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in a large population-based cohort of 22 073 individuals diagnosed with hepatitis C viral (HCV) infection through laboratory testing in Scotland in 1991 -2006. We identified new cases of HCC through record-linkage to the national inpatient hospital discharge database and deaths registry. A total of 172 persons diagnosed with HCV were admitted to hospital or died with first-time mention of HCC. Hepatocellular carcinoma incidence increased between 1996 and 2006 (average annual change of 6.1, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.9 -11.6%, P ¼ 0.021). The adjusted relative risk of HCC was greater for males (hazard ratio ¼ 2.7, 95% CI: 1.7 -4.2), for those aged 60 years or older (hazard ratio ¼ 2.7, 95% CI: 1.9 -4.1) compared with 50 -59 years, and for those with a previous alcohol-related hospital admission (hazard ratio ¼ 2.5, 95% CI: 1.7 -3.7). The risk of individuals diagnosed with HCV developing HCC was greatly increased compared with the general Scottish population (standardised incidence ratio ¼ 127, 95% CI: 102 -156). Owing to the advancing age of the Scottish HCV-diagnosed population, the annual number of HCC cases is projected to increase, with a consequent increasing burden on the public healthcare system. British Journal of Cancer (2008) The aetiology of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) includes excessive alcohol consumption and chronic infection with the hepatitis B or C virus. The incidence of HCC has increased in developed countries worldwide (Deuffic et al, 1999;El-Serag and Mason, 1999;Law et al, 2000), but data are limited on its cause. However, modelling initiatives have projected increasing numbers of HCC deaths attributable to hepatitis B and/or hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection (Deuffic-Burban et al, 2004Sweeting et al, 2007).In Scotland, HCV is responsible for a significant burden on healthcare (Hutchinson et al, 2006). Meeting the public health challenge of providing sufficient resources for treatment and care of patients with HCV requires up-to-date data on morbidity and mortality. However, national surveillance systems for detecting advanced HCV-related liver disease are currently lacking in the United Kingdom and elsewhere. The existence of high-quality national HCV diagnosis and hospital discharge databases provided the opportunity to use record-linkage techniques to investigate the annual number of new diagnoses of, and deaths from, HCV-related HCC.Our principal goal was to investigate trends in the annual incidence of HCC in the entire HCV-diagnosed population in Scotland through record linkage to hospital admission and deaths records. We also aimed to confirm previously reported associations between risk factors and progression to HCC. Up-to-date information regarding factors affecting the rate of development of HCC in individuals diagnosed with HCV is needed for informing clinical management and care, and for refining guidelines for early detection. MATERIALS AND METHODSThe desi...

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Modeling the hepatitis C virus epidemic in france

Cited by 191 publications

References 42 publications

Evolutionary analysis of hepatitis C virus gene sequences from 1953

Evolutionary analysis of hepatitis C virus gene sequences from 1953

Estimating progression to cirrhosis in chronic hepatitis C virus infection

A record-linkage study of the development of hepatocellular carcinoma in persons with hepatitis C infection in Scotland

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