Communication and Hazard Perception Lessons from Category Five Hurricane Michael

Abstract

Hurricane Michael made landfall on 10 October 2018 as only the third Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (SSHWS) category 5 storm in the USA in the named era. The storm’s intensity, rapid intensification, October landfall, high inland winds, and uncommon landfall location all combined to complicate the communication and preparation efforts of emergency managers (EMs) and broadcast meteorologists (BMs), while clouding the comprehension of the public. Interviews were conducted with EMs, BMs, and a small public sample to hear their stories and identify and understand common themes and experiences. This information and previous research was used to inform the creation of questions for a large sample public survey. Results showed that 61% of our sample did not evacuate, and approximately 80% either underestimated the intensity, misinterpreted or did not believe the forecast, or realized the danger too late to evacuate. Hazard perception from a survey of the public revealed that wind followed by tornadoes, and falling trees were the major concerns across the region. According to their counties of residence, participants were divided into Coastal or Inland, and Heavily Impacted or Less Impacted categories. Inland participants expressed a significantly higher concern for wind, tornadoes, falling trees, and rainfall/inland flooding than Coastal participants. Participants from Heavily Impacted counties showed greater concern for storm surge, tornadoes, and falling trees than participants from Less Impacted counties. These results reinforce the continued need for all parties of the weather enterprise to strengthen communication capabilities with EMs and the public for extreme events.

Effects of Tropical Cyclones and Other Severe Weather Events on Reddish Egret (Egretta rufescens) Populations in Louisiana, U.S.A.

“…Tropical cyclones thrive in an environment with greater ocean surface temperatures, and it is projected that the frequency of intense tropical cyclones and storm-related precipitation may increase as ocean surface temperatures rise (Bacmeister et al ., 2018; Trepanier, 2020). Warmer conditions may also produce tropical cyclones with a higher probability of undergoing rapid intensification during their life cycle, and there may be a higher tendency for storms to undergo this process in the Gulf of Mexico (Benedetto and Trepanier, 2020; Senkbeil et al ., 2020).…”

Translating a Global Emission-Reduction Framework for Subnational Climate Action: A Case Study from the State of Georgia

“…Tropical cyclone intensity is likely shifting to atmospheric and oceanic warming as well (Knutson et al 2015;Kossin et al 2020), with a growing percentage of "major storms" (categories 4 and 5) over recent decades. In Georgia, Hurricane Michael caused over $2.5 billion in agricultural losses in 2018 (UGA Cooperative Extension), and Hurricane Irma caused $670 million in damages in 2017 (Senkbeil et al 2020).…”

Explainable deep learning powered building risk assessment model for proactive hurricane response

“…The appropriate decision making for the prehurricane proactive measures is potentially guided by the accurate assessment of individual households’ and property owners’ risk levels (Gao et al., 2022; Lazo et al., 2010; National Research Council, 2013). However, hurricane risk assessment at the individual household level is currently not available, and the lack of specific risk information can lead to inappropriate risk perception, insufficient hurricane preparedness, failed responses, and even fatalities (Baker et al., 2012; Burnside et al., 2007; Cole & Fellows, 2008; Lindner et al., 2018; Meyer et al., 2014; Senkbeil et al., 2019; Senkbeil et al., 2020).…”