Communicating Geographical Risks in Crisis Management: The Need for Research

Abstract

In any crisis, there is a great deal of uncertainty, often geographical uncertainty or, more precisely, spatiotemporal uncertainty. Examples include the spread of contamination from an industrial accident, drifting volcanic ash, and the path of a hurricane. Estimating spatiotemporal probabilities is usually a difficult task, but that is not our primary concern. Rather, we ask how analysts can communicate spatiotemporal uncertainty to those handling the crisis. We comment on the somewhat limited literature on the representation of spatial uncertainty on maps. We note that many cognitive issues arise and that the potential for confusion is high. We note that in the early stages of handling a crisis, the uncertainties involved may be deep, i.e., difficult or impossible to quantify in the time available. In such circumstance, we suggest the idea of presenting multiple scenarios.

Advances in Spatial Risk Analysis

“…In this special issue, French, Argyris, Haywood, Hort, and Smith (2019) review the literature associated with spatiotemporal uncertainties in emergency risk analysis from both technical and behavioral perspectives. They suggest the use of multiple scenarios for exploring the consequences of spatiotemporal uncertainties and communicating them to decisionmakers.…”

Plutonium Disposition: Using and Explaining Complex Risk‐Related Methods

“…Last, as noted above we have tried various approaches to vetting PRA 3, PA, and other complex quantitative and semiquantitative results before public audiences. Dieckmann, Peters, and Gregory (2015), Flage, Aven, Zio, and Baraldi (2014), and French, Argyris, Haywood, Hort, and Smith (2019) have suggested several creative approaches. More will be forthcoming.…”

Logística Humanitária: Tecnologias Digitais De Comunicação Na Gestão De Riscos De Desastres

“…Além de seu alcance coletivo, as mídias sociais combinam a mineração de dados e textos através da inteligência artificial, mapa conceitual e resultados estatísticos que, após gerados, orientam e permitem um planejamento eficaz com base em dados históricos, frequência e análises online, sem espaço temporal, para a comunicação frente a um dado cenário. Uma equipe heterogênea e multidisciplinar de analistas, de diferentes áreas do conhecimento, pode rapidamente fornecer aconselhamentos, sugestões e recomendações ao público e às autoridades, usando as mídias sociais (French et al, 2019;Yu et al, 2020).…”