Common transport infrastructure: A quantitative model and estimates from the Belt and Road Initiative

Soyres, François de; Mulabdić, Alen; Ruta, Michele

doi:10.1016/j.jdeveco.2019.102415

Cited by 82 publications

(37 citation statements)

References 16 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The short-and long-run consequences of China's infrastructure financing activities-including the US$1 trillion Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)-are the subject of considerable debate in the media and within policy circles. A growing number of articles in economics focus on the expected impact of the BRI in different regions (e.g., Perlez and Huang 2017, Bandiera and Tsiropoulos 2020, Bird et al 2020, de Soyres et al 2020, Lall and Lebrand 2020. 5 Beijing's critics claim that it finances poorly-designed and hastily-executed projects that provide few economic benefits, while Western donors and lenders have learned through decades of experience to design and implement infrastructure projects in more careful and sustainable ways.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Connective Financing: Chinese Infrastructure Projects and the Diffusion of Economic Activity in Developing Countries

et al. 2018

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This paper studies the causal effect of transport infrastructure on the spatial concentration of economic activity. Leveraging a new global dataset of geo-located Chinese government-financed projects over the period from 2000 to 2014 together with measures of spatial inequality based on remotely-sensed data, we analyze the effects of transport projects on the spatial distribution of economic activity within and between regions in a large number of developing countries. We find that Chinese-financed transportation projects reduce spatial concentration within but not between regions. In line with land use theory, we document a range of results which are consistent with a relocation of activity from city centers to their immediate periphery. Transport projects decentralize economic activity particularly strongly in regions that are more urbanized, located closer to the coast, and less developed.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Connective Financing: Chinese Infrastructure Projects and the Diffusion of Economic Activity in Developing Countries

et al. 2018

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Brooks and Hummels ( 2009 ) pointed out that infrastructure construction plays an important role in trade expansion in Asia. The development of transportation infrastructure through the BRI is likely to have a significant impact on reducing shipment time and trade costs (de Soyres et al 2020 ). Their study revealed that shipment time and trade costs have reduced by 1.7–3.2% and 1.5–2.8% due to transport infrastructure development in BRI countries, respectively.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic impact of transportation infrastructure investment under the Belt and Road Initiative

Chen

2021

Asia Eur J

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

China launched an ambitious strategy known as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2013 with an objective to promote regional economic growth and integration. The initiative was implemented primarily through massive investment in transportation infrastructure development among the Belt and Road countries to improve transportation connectivity and reduce trade costs. While such a strategy has been implemented for more than seven years, it remains unclear to what extent the investment of transportation infrastructure has affected the regional economic performance in various countries. To clarify this question, this study provides an in-depth assessment of BRI investment in transportation infrastructure using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Different from previous studies, the regional economic impact was evaluated through CGE simulations based on the actual investment data obtained from various sources. In addition, both the change of intraregional and interregional trade costs as a result of BRI transportation infrastructure investment was estimated. The results show that the transportation infrastructure investment in BRI has generated different impacts among regions. In particular, China, Central and West Asian countries have gained significant growth in GDP, employment, and economic welfare, whereas the economic impact of transportation infrastructure investment in the Central and West Europe is relatively minor. Overall, the research findings provide important policy implications for future transportation infrastructure investment in BRI countries and beyond.

show abstract

“…Results of the study show that countries located along the corridors where projects will be realized would record the largest positive impacts and may be able to experience a reduction in shipment time and trade costs by up to 11.9% and 10.2%, respectively. In a following study, De Soyres et al (2020) estimated that carrying out the BRI transport infrastructure projects may increase gross domestic product by up to 3.4% for the countries involved and by up to 2.9% for the world. However, the high costs of infrastructure may determine a negative effect on welfare (defined as real consumption) in some countries.…”

Section: The Belt and Road Initiative And The Role Of Infrastructurementioning

confidence: 99%

Trade and Infrastructure in the Belt and Road Initiative: A Gravity Analysis Based on Revealed Trade Preferences

Stefano

Iapadre

Salvati

2021

JRFM

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This paper aims at investigating whether and how the intensity of trade between a pair of countries changes when they experience improvements in their infrastructural systems. We carry out our analysis considering countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a project specifically designed to promote infrastructural connectivity and therefore boost trade among the countries involved. Our empirical strategy relies on a particular specification of the gravity model, in which the dependent variable consists in an index of revealed trade preferences, calculated by comparing the actual value of trade flows between two countries with their expected value, proportional to the two countries’ total trade. Such methodology allows us to estimate bilateral trade intensity without resorting to the traditional “size” variables of the gravity model, taking the entire network of multilateral trade into account. We then study the possible impact of an improvement in infrastructure on a ‘gravity-adjusted’ measure of trade preferences, given by the residuals of our first estimations. Our results indicate that bilateral preferences among BRI countries will intensify inasmuch as they succeed in coordinating their infrastructural projects.

show abstract

Common transport infrastructure: A quantitative model and estimates from the Belt and Road Initiative

Cited by 82 publications

References 16 publications

Connective Financing: Chinese Infrastructure Projects and the Diffusion of Economic Activity in Developing Countries

Connective Financing: Chinese Infrastructure Projects and the Diffusion of Economic Activity in Developing Countries

Economic impact of transportation infrastructure investment under the Belt and Road Initiative

Trade and Infrastructure in the Belt and Road Initiative: A Gravity Analysis Based on Revealed Trade Preferences

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About