Committed emissions from existing energy infrastructure jeopardize 1.5 °C climate target

Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) has the least carbon-intensive electricity sector of any region in the world, as hydropower remains the largest source of electricity. But are current plans consistent with the international climate change goals laid out in the Paris Agreement? In this paper, we assess committed CO 2 emissions from existing and planned power plants in LAC. Those are the carbon emissions that would result from the operation of fossil-fueled power plants during their typical lifetime. Committed emissions from existing power plants are close to 6.9 Gt of CO 2 . Building and operating all power plants that are announced, authorized, being procured, or under construction would result in 6.7 Gt of CO 2 of additional commitments (for a total of 13.6 Gt of CO 2 ). Committed emissions are above average IPCC assessments of cumulative emissions from power generation in LAC consistent with international temperature targets. To meet average carbon budgets from IPCC, 10%-16% of existing fossil-fueled power plants would need to be closed before the end of their technical lifespan. Our results suggest that building more fossil-fueled power plants in the region could jeopardize the achievement of the Paris Agreement temperature targets.

Section: Sensitivity Of Findingsmentioning

confidence: 54%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Committed emissions and the risk of stranded assets from power plants in Latin America and the Caribbean

González-Mahecha

Lecuyer

Hallack

et al. 2019

“…They stated that this infrastructure will not help achieve the 1.5°C target. Moreover, they pointed out the importance of the power sector in decarbonizing the energy system (Tong et al 2019). Cui et al compared the existing and planned coal-based power plant development with climate targets to demonstrate that the operational lifetime of existing coal plants should be reduced to 35 and 20 years to meet the 2°C and 1.5°C targets, respectively (Cui et al 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Early transformation of the Chinese power sector to avoid additional coal lock-in

Wang

Chen

Bertram

et al. 2020

Emission reduction from the coal-dominated power sector is vital for achieving China's carbon mitigation targets. Although the coal expansion has been slowed down due to the cancellation of and delay in new construction, coal-based power was responsible for over one third of China's energyrelated CO 2 emissions by 2018. Moreover, with a technical lifetime of over 30 years, current investment in coal-based power could hinder CO 2 mitigation until 2050. Therefore, it is important to examine whether the current coal-based power planning aligns with the long-term climate targets. This paper introduces China's Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) goals and an ambitious carbon budget along with global pathways well-below 2 degrees that are divided into five integrated assessment models, which are two national and three global models. We compare the models' results with bottom-up data on current capacity additions and expansion plans to examine if the NDC targets are in line with 2-degree pathways. The key findings are: 1. NDC goals alone are unlikely to lead to significant reductions in coal-based power generation. On the contrary, more plants may be built before 2030; 2. this would require an average of 187-261 TWh of annual coal-based power capacity reduction between 2030 and 2050 to achieve a 2°C compatible trajectory, which would lead to the stranding of large-scale coal-based power plants; 3. if the reduction in coal power can be brought forward to 2020, the average annual coal-based power reduction required would be 104-155 TWh from 2020 to 2050 and the emissions could peak earlier; 4. early regulations in coal-based power would require accelerated promotion of alternatives between 2020 and 2030, with nuclear, wind and solar power expected to be the most promising alternatives. By presenting the stranding risk and viability of alternatives, we suggest that both the government and enterprises should remain cautious about making new investment in coal-based power sector.

“…Carbon dioxide removal from the atmosphere using 'negative emission technologies' (NETs) using a combination of physical, chemical, or biological processes has been deemed essential to contain the increase in the average global temperature over pre-industrial times to 1.5°C-2°C (temperature anomaly) by the end of the century (Gasser et al 2015, Rogelj et al 2018. The criticality of NETs in achieving these climate targets given humanity's rapidly diminishing global carbon budget (Tong et al 2019) has led to calls for more in-depth evaluations of individual NETs (Fuss et al 2016, Field and Mach 2017, van Vuuren et al 2017, particularly with regards to their scalability and systems-level impacts on the environment, economy, and society. The vast majority of published studies have focused on gigatonne-scale carbon dioxide removal approaches tied to biogeochemical and biogeophysical cycles such as bioenergy with carbon capture and sequestration and terrestrial carbon management .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Costs to achieve target net emissions reductions in the US electric sector using direct air capture

Supekar

Lim

Skerlos

2019

This paper examines the scale and costs of using direct air capture (DAC) with CO 2 storage to reduce net CO 2 emissions from the US electric sector by 70% in 2050 relative to 2010. Least-cost emission and technology trajectories are generated using an optimization-based stock-and-flow model of electricity generation to meet the 70% target. The analysis finds that the 30%-44% reduction in emissions projected under a least cost business-as-usual (BAU) scenario dominated by natural gas would fall well short of the 70% reduction target at 2050. Delaying reductions in BAU emissions beyond 2030 would require deployment of DAC to achieve the 70% target. Further delays to reduce BAU emissions until 2035 would require up to 1.4 Gt CO 2 of DAC capacity to achieve the 70% target. Delaying reductions in BAU emissions beyond 2035 would require so much DAC deployment as to be implausible, placing the 70% target out of reach for most scenarios. Each year of delay in reducing CO 2 emissions beyond BAU after 2020 increases costs to achieve the 70% target. A DAC-based emissions reduction future could cost an additional 580-2015 billion USD through 2050 compared to emissions mitigation starting immediately. This translates to approximately 100-345 million USD per day of delay starting in 2020. These costs arise not just from building DAC plants, but from replacing relatively young fossil fuel plants being built today with renewables as well as for the electric power needed for DAC. These results make clear that minimizing the costs of DAC deployment depend on reducing BAU emissions as early as possible, and if done quickly enough, DAC can be avoided altogether-which reduces costs the most. Hence there should be no delay in aggressively reducing emissions from the US electric sector.