Commentary on Ferguson, et al., “Impact of Non-pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) to Reduce COVID-19 Mortality and Healthcare Demand”

Eubank, Stephen; Eckstrand, Irene A.; Lewis, Bryan; Venkatramanan, Srinivasan; Marathe, Madhav V.; Barrett, Christopher L.

doi:10.1007/s11538-020-00726-x

Cited by 341 publications

(332 citation statements)

References 16 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

317

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…Figure 14 shows the behavior of the active cases when the data points before the lockdown are incorporated into the dataset. This behavior is consistent with our current understanding of how NPIs affect COVID-19 dynamics [31]. The same response of COVID-19 dynamics to lockdowns is observed in Saudi Arabia active cases shown in figure 10.…”

Section: As Illustrated Insupporting

confidence: 90%

Epidemic Analysis of COVID-19 in Egypt, Qatar and Saudi Arabia using the Generalized SEIR Model

Fahmy

El-desouky

Mohamed

2020

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Background. Since its emergence in late December 2019 and its declaration as a global pandemic by World Health Organization (WHO) on March 11, 2020, the novel coronavirus disease known as (COVID-19) has attracted global attention. The process of modeling and predicting the pandemic behavior became crucial as the different states needed accurate predictions to be able to adopt suitable policies to minimize the pressure on their health care systems. Researchers have employed modified variants of classical SIR/SEIR models to describe the dynamics of this pandemic. In this paper, after proven effective in numerous countries, a modified variant of SEIR is implemented to predict the behavior of COVID-19 in Egypt and other countries in the Middle East. Methods. We built MATLAB simulations to fit the real data of COVID-19 Active, recovered and death Cases in Egypt, Qatar and Saudi Arabia to the modified SEIR model via Nelder-Mead algorithm to be able to estimate the future dynamics of the pandemic. Findings. We estimate several characteristics of COVID-19 future dynamics in Egypt, Qatar and Saudi Arabia. We also estimate that the pandemic will resolve in the countries under investigation in February 2021, January 2021 and 28th August 2020 with total death cases of 9,742, 5,600 and 185 and total cases of 187,600, 490,000 and 120,000 respectively.

show abstract

Section: As Illustrated Insupporting

confidence: 90%

Epidemic Analysis of COVID-19 in Egypt, Qatar and Saudi Arabia using the Generalized SEIR Model

Fahmy

El-desouky

Mohamed

2020

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…On this presumption but without evidence, school closures were implemented almost ubiquitously around the world to try and halt the potential spread of disease despite early modelling that suggested this would have less impact than most other non-pharmacological interventions. 3 Early contact tracing data from Shenzhen, China, appeared to confirm a role for children in transmission. Although apparently presenting with more benign disease or even without symptoms, similar attack rates were found in children and adults in individual households.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Children are not COVID-19 super spreaders: time to go back to school

2020

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

“…Mitigation and defeat of emerging infections have surfaced as the two major public-health approaches in controlling the virus (16). It is vital to reduce COVID-19 infection via minimizing human-to-human contact, which may, however, be publicly and economically unsustainable in the long term (17).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Case Report: A Recovered SARS CoV-2 Patient Protected From Reinfection

Mahallawi

2020

Front. Med.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The COVID-19 pandemic caused by SARS CoV-2 is a worldwide emergency, and is taking a substantial toll on human health, lives, and the global economy. Due to the novelty of this virus, no SARS CoV-2-specific treatments or licensed vaccines are available though few vaccines are undergoing clinical trials. Therefore, continued research into an effective vaccine is an urgent necessity. The reinfection of recovered patients is one of the major concerns of healthcare providers worldwide. Health authorities are currently seeking evidence of protection from reinfection in recovered individuals. This is the first case report in Saudi Arabia on a patient who was diagnosed as COVID-19-positive; recovered; and after successful recovery was protected against reinfection.

show abstract

Commentary on Ferguson, et al., “Impact of Non-pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) to Reduce COVID-19 Mortality and Healthcare Demand”

Cited by 341 publications

References 16 publications

Epidemic Analysis of COVID-19 in Egypt, Qatar and Saudi Arabia using the Generalized SEIR Model

Epidemic Analysis of COVID-19 in Egypt, Qatar and Saudi Arabia using the Generalized SEIR Model

Children are not COVID-19 super spreaders: time to go back to school

Case Report: A Recovered SARS CoV-2 Patient Protected From Reinfection

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About