Background. Since its emergence in late December 2019 and its declaration as a global pandemic by World Health Organization (WHO) on March 11, 2020, the novel coronavirus disease known as (COVID-19) has attracted global attention. The process of modeling and predicting the pandemic behavior became crucial as the different states needed accurate predictions to be able to adopt suitable policies to minimize the pressure on their health care systems. Researchers have employed modified variants of classical SIR/SEIR models to describe the dynamics of this pandemic. In this paper, after proven effective in numerous countries, a modified variant of SEIR is implemented to predict the behavior of COVID-19 in Egypt and other countries in the Middle East. Methods. We built MATLAB simulations to fit the real data of COVID-19 Active, recovered and death Cases in Egypt, Qatar and Saudi Arabia to the modified SEIR model via Nelder-Mead algorithm to be able to estimate the future dynamics of the pandemic. Findings. We estimate several characteristics of COVID-19 future dynamics in Egypt, Qatar and Saudi Arabia. We also estimate that the pandemic will resolve in the countries under investigation in February 2021, January 2021 and 28th August 2020 with total death cases of 9,742, 5,600 and 185 and total cases of 187,600, 490,000 and 120,000 respectively.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
hi@scite.ai
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
Copyright © 2024 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.