Combining multi-state species distribution models, mortality estimates, and landscape connectivity to model potential species distribution for endangered species in human dominated landscapes

Maiorano, Luigi; Chiaverini, Luca; Falco, Mirella; Ciucci, Paolo

doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2019.06.014

Cited by 42 publications

(35 citation statements)

References 56 publications

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“…For this study, the ensemble models were implemented using three species distribution models, including generalized linear models (GLM), generalized boosted models (GBM), and a maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt). These species distribution models were selected based on their high predictive power [1,40,41,42]. For each model, we ran three replications where 75% of the occurrence points was used as training set, while the remaining 25% was used for model evaluation.…”

Section: Building the Predictive Ensemble Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Combining ensemble models and connectivity analyses to predict wolf expected dispersal routes through a lowland corridor

et al. 2020

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The Italian wolf (Canis lupus italicus) population has remained isolated South of the Alps for the last few thousand years. After a strong decline, the species has recolonized the Apennines and the Western Alps, while it is currently struggling to colonize the Eastern Alps. Recently, the species was detected in a lowland park connecting the Northern Apennines to the Central Alps. If the park was able to sustain a net wolf dispersal flow, this could significantly boost the connection with the Eastern Alps and the Dinaric-Balkan population. We investigated the suitability of the park as a functional ecological corridor for the wolf through the unhospitable lowland of Northern Italy. We collected wolf occurrence data in two study areas. We modeled species distribution running a separate ensemble model for each study area and then merging the output of the models to obtain an integrated suitability map. We used this map to identify corridors for the wolf adopting a factorial least-cost path and a cumulative resistant kernel approach. The connectivity models showed that only two corridors exist in the lowland areas between the Northern Apennines and the Central Alps. The Western corridor is a blind route, while the eastern corridor passes through the park and has a continuous course. However, the models also revealed a scarce resilience of corridor connectivity in the passageways between the park and the Apennines and the Prealps, which suggests that urgent management actions are necessary to ensure the future functionality of this important corridor.

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Section: Building the Predictive Ensemble Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Combining ensemble models and connectivity analyses to predict wolf expected dispersal routes through a lowland corridor

et al. 2020

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“…Before running the model, we checked pairwise Pearson's correlation coefficient between covariates and verified that no variable pair had a coefficient higher than 0.60 (Khosravi et al 2018). The ensemble model was implemented using a generalized linear model (GLM), a generalized boosted model (GBM), and a maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt) because of their high predictive power (Bosso et al 2018;Fois et al 2018;Khosravi et al 2018;Maiorano et al 2019). For every single model, we ran three replications where 75% of the presence points was used as training set, while the remaining 25% was used as test set.…”

Section: Habitat Suitability Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

First assessment of habitat suitability and connectivity for the golden jackal in north-eastern Italy

et al. 2020

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Compared with the rapid expansion across Europe, the golden jackal colonization of Italy is still limited and slow. No study focused on the habitat selection or landscape connectivity for this species was performed in Italy; thus, the potential distribution and dispersal patterns in the country remain unknown. Our objectives were to evaluate the suitability of the Friuli-Venezia Giulia region (north-eastern Italy) for the golden jackal, as well as to identify the ecological corridors connecting the areas currently occupied by the species. Corridors modelling allowed us both to hypothesize the dispersal dynamics occurring in the study region and to identify possible obstacles to future range expansion. We surveyed golden jackal presence in two study areas, covering an area of 500 km2, from March 2017 to February 2018. Using collected data, we modelled the species home-range scale habitat suitability based on an ensemble modelling approach. Subsequently, a habitat suitability prediction at a finer scale was used to estimate landscape resistance, starting from which, we modelled dispersal corridors among areas currently occupied by the species using a factorial least cost path and a cumulative resistant kernel approach. Our results indicated a moderate potential for large parts of the study region to support the occurrence of golden jackal family groups, whose presence seems to be mainly driven by the presence of wide areas covered by broadleaved forests and shrublands and by the absence of wide intensive agricultural areas. The predicted connectivity networks showed that three main permeable corridors are likely to connect golden jackal occurrence areas within the study region, while all the other corridors are characterized by a very low path density. Both the habitat selection and connectivity analyses showed a strong negative impact of the intensive cultivated plain on species stable presence and movement providing critical information for the conservation of the golden jackal in Italy.

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“…Gervasi and Ciucci (2018) use deterministic and stochastic models to conclude that the bear populations are likely to remain small and exposed to high risk for extinction, unless average survival and reproductive rates increase. Maiorano et al (2019) construct a multistate species distribution model for the protection and development of structural corridors in human-dominated landscapes; authors suggest that coordinated efforts between local communities, conservation agencies, national administrations, and governed regions are vital for the survival of the Apennine brown bear (Ursus arctos marsicanus) and that of European wildlife altogether.…”

Section: A Case For Corridor Connectivitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Commodifying Biodiversity: Socioeconomic Approaches to Wildlife Human Coexistence

Copeland

2020

Encyclopedia of the UN Sustainable Development Goals

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Combining multi-state species distribution models, mortality estimates, and landscape connectivity to model potential species distribution for endangered species in human dominated landscapes

Cited by 42 publications

References 56 publications

Combining ensemble models and connectivity analyses to predict wolf expected dispersal routes through a lowland corridor

Combining ensemble models and connectivity analyses to predict wolf expected dispersal routes through a lowland corridor

First assessment of habitat suitability and connectivity for the golden jackal in north-eastern Italy

Commodifying Biodiversity: Socioeconomic Approaches to Wildlife Human Coexistence

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