Combining multi-objective evolutionary algorithms and descriptive analytical modelling in energy scenario design

Mahbub, Md. Shahriar; Cozzini, Marco; Østergaard, Poul Alberg; Alberti, Fabrizio

doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.11.042

Cited by 86 publications

(35 citation statements)

References 59 publications

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“…• Biomass usage; [15] EnergyPLAN is combined with a multi objective evolutionary algorithm, and a study that links EnergyPLAN with an external cost optimization computational tool is found in [16]. Also, a study on a continental scale can be found in [17] where a scenario of 100% RES system for Europe is developed, identifying the necessity of a smart energy system for the entire Europe as the way to achieve it.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Transition Strategy from Fossil Fuels to Renewable Energy Sources in the Mexican Electricity System

Vidal-Amaro¹,

Sheinbaum-Pardo²

2017

J. sustain. dev. energy water environ. syst.

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Renewable energy sources exploitation acquires special importance for creating low-carbon energy systems. In Mexico a national regulation limits the fossil fuel-based electricity generation to 65%, 60% and 50% by years 2024, 2030 and 2050 respectively. This study evaluates several scenarios of renewables incorporation into the Mexican electricity system to attend those targets as well as a 75% renewables-based electricity share target towards a 100% renewable system. By its size, the Mexican electricity system, with a generation of 260.4 TWh/year (85% based on fossil fuels), can be regarded as an illustrating reference. The impact of increasing amounts of wind, photovoltaic solar, biomass, biogas, geothermal, hydro and concentrating solar power on the system's capacity to attend demand on a one-hour timescale resolution is investigated utilizing the EnergyPLAN model and the minimum total mix capacity method. Possible excess of electricity production is also assessed. For every target year, a solution is obtained corresponding to the combination resulting in the minimum total generation capacity for the electricity system. A transition strategy to a system with a high share of renewables-based electricity is designed where every transition step corresponds to the optimal energy mix for each of the target years.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Transition Strategy from Fossil Fuels to Renewable Energy Sources in the Mexican Electricity System

Vidal-Amaro¹,

Sheinbaum-Pardo²

2017

J. sustain. dev. energy water environ. syst.

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“…The EnergyPLAN model is a deterministic, descriptive, and analytically programmed energy economic modeling platform used to simulate energy system with high degrees of renewable energy in regional or national scale [10]. Compared with other energy system model, energy system is simulated hour by hour due to the instability of renewable electricity production.…”

Section: A Energyplanmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For technical optimization, the aim is minimizing fossil-fuel consumption without any cost inputs; for economical optimization is minimizing total operational expenses [10] [11]. Detailed technical data, like start up/shut down costs are not included in the software.…”

Section: A Energyplanmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Role of Renewable Energy in China's Sustainable Energy Transition

Sun¹,

Zhang²,

Zou³

et al. 2017

Proceedings of the 2nd 2016 International Conference on Sustainable Development (ICSD 2016)

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Abstract-To realize China´s Intended Nationally DeterminedContribution on Climate Change for post-2020 period, we should implement a plan for renewable energy development. How to choose a development order for different kinds of renewable energy, such as hydro power, solar power, and wind power? This paper simulates the electricity system with EnergyPLAN model. When we make an assumption that the demand of electricity in the year 2030 is 11800TWh per year, the required minimum capacity of total coal-fired electricity range from 1127GW to 1214GW.To lower the coal-fired capacity, more research should be done. Propose policy recommendations for renewable energy development. It shows that if more and more wind power is installed in RES-40 system, the analyzed results with the selected criteria will be better. It is a dynamic process to a more sustainable energy system. EEP will be an important problem when the share of RES reaches 50% or more in total electricity production.

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“…The EnergyPLAN model is a descriptive analytical model for medium/large-scale energy systems using multi-objective evolutionary algorithms to optimize solutions in the context of complex problems [76]. It can be employed to simulate and optimize energy systems with high shares of renewable energy on regional or national scales.…”

Section: Energyplanmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For technical optimization, the aim is to minimize fossil-fuel consumption without any cost considerations. For economic optimization the minimization is applied to total operational expenses [76,77].…”

Section: Energyplanmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sustainable Energy Transitions in China: Renewable Options and Impacts on the Electricity System

et al. 2016

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Abstract:Chinese energy consumption has been dominated by coal for decades, but this needs to change to protect the environment and mitigate anthropogenic climate change. Renewable energy development is needed to fulfil the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) for the post-2020 period, as stated on the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris. This paper reviews the potential of renewable energy in China and how it could be utilised to meet the INDC goals. A business-as-usual case and eight alternative scenarios with 40% renewable electricity are explored using the EnergyPLAN model to visualise out to the year 2030. Five criteria (total cost, total capacity, excess electricity, CO 2 emissions, and direct job creation) are used to assess the sustainability of the scenarios. The results indicate that renewables can meet the goal of a 20% share of non-fossil energy in primary energy and 40%-50% share of non-fossil energy in electricity power. The low nuclear-hydro power scenario is the most optimal scenario based on the used evaluation criteria. The Chinese government should implement new policies aimed at promoting integrated development of wind power and solar PV.

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Combining multi-objective evolutionary algorithms and descriptive analytical modelling in energy scenario design

Cited by 86 publications

References 59 publications

A Transition Strategy from Fossil Fuels to Renewable Energy Sources in the Mexican Electricity System

A Transition Strategy from Fossil Fuels to Renewable Energy Sources in the Mexican Electricity System

The Role of Renewable Energy in China's Sustainable Energy Transition

Sustainable Energy Transitions in China: Renewable Options and Impacts on the Electricity System

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