Combining mathematics and empirical data to predict emergence of RNA viruses that differ in reservoir use

Ogbunugafor, C. Brandon; Basu, Subhash; Morales, Nadya M.; Turner, Paul

doi:10.1098/rstb.2010.0075

Cited by 8 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 48 publications

(60 reference statements)

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“…If we could better predict which viral genotypes or species will successfully emerge in a host population such as humans, we could proactively prepare for inevitable pandemics similar to the current AIDS crisis caused by HIV emergence. We are a long way from accurately predicting emergence events in viral evolution (57), but recent experiments have made inroads.…”

Section: Can Viruses Adapt To Cope With Environmental Change?mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The virus is normally cultured at 25 • C, but when exposed to heat shock, such as 45 • C for 5 min, roughly 80% of viral particles lose the capacity to productively infect bacteria (57,58), owing to the poor stability of the phage lytic enzyme at high temperature (26). We allowed lineages founded by robust and brittle viruses to evolve on P. syringae pv.…”

Section: Are Viruses More Evolvable Than Cellular Life?mentioning

confidence: 99%

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On the Biological Success of Viruses

Wasik

Turner

2013

Annu. Rev. Microbiol.

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Are viruses more biologically successful than cellular life? Here we examine many ways of gauging biological success, including numerical abundance, environmental tolerance, type biodiversity, reproductive potential, and widespread impact on other organisms. We especially focus on successful ability to evolutionarily adapt in the face of environmental change. Viruses are often challenged by dynamic environments, such as host immune function and evolved resistance as well as abiotic fluctuations in temperature, moisture, and other stressors that reduce virion stability. Despite these challenges, our experimental evolution studies show that viruses can often readily adapt, and novel virus emergence in humans and other hosts is increasingly problematic. We additionally consider whether viruses are advantaged in evolvability-the capacity to evolve-and in avoidance of extinction. On the basis of these different ways of gauging biological success, we conclude that viruses are the most successful inhabitants of the biosphere.

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Section: Can Viruses Adapt To Cope With Environmental Change?mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Are Viruses More Evolvable Than Cellular Life?mentioning

confidence: 99%

On the Biological Success of Viruses

Wasik

Turner

2013

Annu. Rev. Microbiol.

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“…But environmental robustness of viruses such as influenza A virus undoubtedly fosters the ability to reside in various host species that may serve as reservoirs that allow occasional spillover into a species of interest such as humans. 52 Robustness may also be relevant in explaining aspects of the current AIDS pandemic. A global increase in robustness has been invoked to explain an apparent global decline in the virulence of HIV-1 strains.…”

Section: Robustness and Modern Rna Virus Pandemicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The results suggested that determination of current niche breadth should be further investigated as a potentially useful indicator in predicting pathogen emergence. 51,52 Because these many recent empirical breakthroughs in the study of robustness have involved microbes, one might predict that infectious disease is the primary biomedical realm where these robustness results might have an immediate, practical impact. Below we describe three examples of biomedically important human disease systems where robustness theory appears highly relevant.…”

Section: Testing Relationships Between Robustness and Pathogen Ementioning

confidence: 99%

On the possible role of robustness in the evolution of infectious diseases

Ogbunugafor

Pease

Turner

2010

Chaos

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Robustness describes the capacity for a biological system to remain canalized despite perturbation. Genetic robustness affords maintenance of phenotype despite mutational input, necessarily involving the role of epistasis. Environmental robustness is phenotypic constancy in the face of environmental variation, where epistasis may be uninvolved. Here we discuss genetic and environmental robustness, from the standpoint of infectious disease evolution, and suggest that robustness may be a unifying principle for understanding how different disease agents evolve. We focus especially on viruses with RNA genomes due to their importance in the evolution of emerging diseases and as model systems to test robustness theory. We present new data on adaptive constraints for a model RNA virus challenged to evolve in response to UV radiation. We also draw attention to other infectious disease systems where robustness theory may prove useful for bridging evolutionary biology and biomedicine, especially the evolution of antibiotic resistance in bacteria, immune evasion by influenza, and malaria parasite infections. © 2010 American Institute of Physics. ͓doi:10.1063/1.3455189͔Unifying principles in biology are rare and challenging to uncover, as they are charged with explaining phenomena across different areas of the biosphere, on different scales. Robustness is a modern concept in biology with the potential to serve as a unifying principle, as it has already been wielded in vastly different contexts, including yeast metabolism, embryology, cancer biology, and many others. In general, robustness describes the capacity for an organism to persist in the presence of perturbations of various kinds. Robustness exists in several forms, with genetic robustness the most provocative among them, describing the ability of organisms to resist phenotypic change in the presence of genetic variation itself, influencing the ability for natural selection to act on heritable genetic information (evolvability). Several recent studies have fortified the importance of testing robustness empirically, where one can detect evolvable differences using various methods. These studies, however, highlight both the opportunities and obstacles involved with the empirical study of robustness. Because many of these studies have utilized microorganisms, the infectious disease paradigm is a candidate area for further application of robustness theory. One can argue that recent findings in several infectious disease systems, including bacterial drug resistance, influenza, HIV, and malaria, are germane to the robustness concept. The hope is that further application of robustness theory might aid in how we study, and treat, infectious diseases of many types.

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“…Froissart et al (2010) review empirical investigations reporting to what extent within-host viral accumulation determines the transmission rate and the virulence of vector-borne plant viruses. Ogbunugafor et al (2010) used an epidemiological model containing observations of pathogen productivity in reservoirs, as a means to predict which pathogens should be most prone to emerge in a primary host such as humans. Related to these two articles, Steinmeyer et al (2010) describe new nested mathematical models studying the epidemiology of a viral disease with dose-dependent replication and transmission by nesting a differential-equation model of the within-host viral dynamics inside a betweenhost epidemiological model.…”

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confidence: 99%