Theory predicts that selection for pathogen virulence and horizontal transmission is highest at the onset of an epidemic but decreases thereafter, as the epidemic depletes the pool of susceptible hosts. We tested this prediction by tracking the competition between the latent bacteriophage λ and its virulent mutant λcI857 throughout experimental epidemics taking place in continuous cultures of Escherichia coli. As expected, the virulent λcI857 is strongly favored in the early stage of the epidemic, but loses competition with the latent virus as prevalence increases. We show that the observed transient selection for virulence and horizontal transmission can be fully explained within the framework of evolutionary epidemiology theory. This experimental validation of our predictions is a key step towards a predictive theory for the evolution of virulence in emerging infectious diseases.

Mutational (genetic) robustness is phenotypic constancy in the face of mutational changes to the genome. Robustness is critical to the understanding of evolution because phenotypically expressed genetic variation is the fuel of natural selection. Nonetheless, the evidence for adaptive evolution of mutational robustness in biological populations is controversial. Robustness should be selectively favored when mutation rates are high, a common feature of RNA viruses. However, selection for robustness may be relaxed under virus co-infection because complementation between virus genotypes can buffer mutational effects. We therefore hypothesized that selection for genetic robustness in viruses will be weakened with increasing frequency of co-infection. To test this idea, we used populations of RNA phage φ6 that were experimentally evolved at low and high levels of co-infection and subjected lineages of these viruses to mutation accumulation through population bottlenecking. The data demonstrate that viruses evolved under high co-infection show relatively greater mean magnitude and variance in the fitness changes generated by addition of random mutations, confirming our hypothesis that they experience weakened selection for robustness. Our study further suggests that co-infection of host cells may be advantageous to RNA viruses only in the short term. In addition, we observed higher mutation frequencies in the more robust viruses, indicating that evolution of robustness might foster less-accurate genome replication in RNA viruses.

The adaptive hypothesis invoked to explain why parasites harm their hosts is known as the trade-off hypothesis, which states that increased parasite transmission comes at the cost of shorter infection duration. This correlation arises because both transmission and disease-induced mortality (i.e. virulence) are increasing functions of parasite within-host density. There is, however, a glaring lack of empirical data to support this hypothesis. Here, we review empirical investigations reporting to what extent within-host viral accumulation determines the transmission rate and the virulence of vector-borne plant viruses. Studies suggest that the correlation between within-plant viral accumulation and transmission rate of natural isolates is positive. Unfortunately, results on the correlation between viral accumulation and virulence are very scarce. We found only very few appropriate studies testing such a correlation, themselves limited by the fact that they use symptoms as a proxy for virulence and are based on very few viral genotypes. Overall, the available evidence does not allow us to confirm or refute the existence of a transmission -virulence trade-off for vector-borne plant viruses. We discuss the type of data that should be collected and how theoretical models can help us refine testable predictions of virulence evolution.

Interactions between Cauliflower mosaic virus (CaMV) and its aphid vector are regulated by the viral protein P2, which binds to the aphid stylets, and protein P3, which bridges P2 and virions. By using baculovirus expression of P2 and P3, electron microscopy, surface plasmon resonance, affinity chromatography, and transmission assays, we demonstrate that P3 must be previously bound to virions in order that attachment to P2 will allow aphid transmission of CaMV. We also show that a P2:P3 complex exists in the absence of virions but is nonfunctional in transmission. Hence, unlike P2, P3 and virions cannot be sequentially acquired by the vector. Immunogold labeling revealed the predominance of spatially separated P2:P3 and P3:virion complexes in infected plant cells. This specific distribution indicates that the transmissible complex, P2:P3:virion, does not form primarily in infected plants but in aphids. A model, describing the regulating role of P3 in the formation of the transmissible CaMV complex in planta and during acquisition by aphids, is presented, and its consequences are discussed.

Co-infection may be beneficial in large populations of viruses because it permits sexual exchange between viruses that is useful in combating the mutational load. This advantage of sex should be especially substantial when mutations interact through negative epistasis. In contrast, co-infection may be detrimental because it allows virus complementation, where inferior genotypes profit from superior virus products available within the cell. The RNA bacteriophage φ6 features a genome divided into three segments. Co-infection by multiple φ6 genotypes produces hybrids containing reassorted mixtures of the parental segments. We imposed a mutational load on φ6 populations by mixing the wild-type virus with three single mutants, each harboring a deleterious mutation on a different one of the three virus segments. We then contrasted the speed at which these epistatic mutations were removed from virus populations in the presence and absence of co-infection. If sex is a stronger force, we predicted that the load should be purged faster in the presence of co-infection. In contrast, if complementation is more important we hypothesized that mutations would be eliminated faster in the absence of co-infection. We found that the load was purged faster in the absence of co-infection, which suggests that the disadvantages of complementation can outweigh the benefits of sex, even in the presence of negative epistasis. We discuss our results in light of virus disease management and the evolutionary advantage of haploidy in biological populations.

Viral recombination can dramatically impact evolution and epidemiology. In viruses, the recombination rate depends on the frequency of genetic exchange between different viral genomes within an infected host cell and on the frequency at which such co-infections occur. While the recombination rate has been recently evaluated in experimentally co-infected cell cultures for several viruses, direct quantification at the most biologically significant level, that of a host infection, is still lacking. This study fills this gap using the cauliflower mosaic virus as a model. We distributed four neutral markers along the viral genome, and co-inoculated host plants with marker-containing and wild-type viruses. The frequency of recombinant genomes was evaluated 21 d post-inoculation. On average, over 50% of viral genomes recovered after a single host infection were recombinants, clearly indicating that recombination is very frequent in this virus. Estimates of the recombination rate show that all regions of the genome are equally affected by this process. Assuming that ten viral replication cycles occurred during our experiment—based on data on the timing of coat protein detection—the per base and replication cycle recombination rate was on the order of 2 × 10−5 to 4 × 10−5. This first determination of a virus recombination rate during a single multi-cellular host infection indicates that recombination is very frequent in the everyday life of this virus.

The effective size of populations (Ne) determines whether selection or genetic drift is the predominant force shaping their genetic structure and evolution. Despite their high mutation rate and rapid evolution, this parameter is poorly documented experimentally in viruses, particularly plant viruses. All available studies, however, have demonstrated the existence of huge within-host demographic fluctuations, drastically reducing Ne upon systemic invasion of different organs and tissues. Notably, extreme bottlenecks have been detected at the stage of systemic leaf colonization in all plant viral species investigated so far, sustaining the general idea that some unknown obstacle(s) imposes a barrier on the development of all plant viruses. This idea has important implications, as it appoints genetic drift as a constant major force in plant virus evolution. By co-inoculating several genetic variants of Cauliflower mosaic virus into a large number of replicate host plants, and by monitoring their relative frequency within the viral population over the course of the host systemic infection, only minute stochastic variations were detected. This allowed the estimation of the CaMV Ne during colonization of successive leaves at several hundreds of viral genomes, a value about 100-fold higher than that reported for any other plant virus investigated so far, and indicated the very limited role played by genetic drift during plant systemic infection by this virus. These results suggest that the barriers that generate bottlenecks in some plant virus species might well not exist, or can be surmounted by other viruses, implying that severe bottlenecks during host colonization do not necessarily apply to all plant-infecting viruses.

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