Combining backcasting with forest sector projection models to provide paths into the future bio-economy

Abstract

Backcasting is a widely used method that first envisions future desirable goals and thereafter identifies the necessary steps to reach that state. A recent report released by a large group of key stakeholders sets ambitious goals for the Norwegian forest sector in the decades to come, and recommends a set of actions for reaching these goals. As in many backcasting studies, the report provides no assessment of the effects of the identified actions. The objective of our study was to use a model that covers the main product flows in the Norwegian forest sector to evaluate the effectiveness of various recommendations in the report toward meeting the goal of increasing the national annual harvest level from the current level of about 11 million m 3 to 15 million m 3 in 2045. We simulated a set of scenarios across the sector, and found that to reach the harvest level goal, multiple and radical actions would be required. Interlinkages between segments are important features that impact the results. Simulating recommendations in a model that covers the main product flows and attributes in the sector aids in understanding where policies may have the greatest impact and thus may increase the policy relevance of backcasting. ARTICLE HISTORY

Wood utilization scenarios and their sustainability impacts in Finland

“…Also, funding allocated to diversify the market environment for by-products could help to increase the revenues of the industries and therefore increase the R&D activity. If the production volumes of sawmilling industries increase and the markets of by-products are not divergent, it may lead to increased energy use, as indicated in a Norwegian backcasting study (Sjølie et al 2016). The findings of this thesis and previous studies show that wood-based composites, such as wood-plastic mixtures, and biochemicals may have high substitution potential especially when secondary resources such as by-products are utilized as a raw material (Sommerhuber et al 2015;Aryapratama & Janssen 2017).…”

Economics of forest carbon storage and the additionality principle

“…The results suggest that the forest sector models ought to be modified in a fundamental way in order for them to provide robust analysis for the types of scenarios addressed in this paper. That is, FSM are useful for providing realistic estimates of 'what if' policy impacts, particularly for identifying leverage points for costeffective policies and interactions between the different segments of the sector (Sjølie et al 2016). In contrast, their ability to inform about the current or expected market-driven changes in the demand side of the markets appears rather limited.…”

Assessment of Possible Production Leakage from Implementing the EU Biodiversity Strategy on Forest Product Markets

“…The use of a quantitative model can help to put the goals and impacts of policies to the test [38,39]. The analysis of leakage effects by means of general equilibrium modelling [40] or partial equilibrium market modelling are proven methodological approaches for this type of analysis [41].…”