Combined forecasting and cognitive Decision Support System for Indian green coffee supply chain predictive analytics

Abstract

This research on cognitive Decision Support System for the stake holders of Indian green coffee supply chain provides the necessary business intelligence required for the improvement of market retention capability quality metrics of Indian coffee in the international market. The combined forecast model comprises of traditional extrapolative models, ARIMA model and Least square Support vector machine model. Performance criteria like, tracking signal spectrums is used for the assessment of the time series data forecast accuracy for all countries. Demand data volume in metric tonnes for all the importing nations and prediction of exporters' share price movement in the stock market are the target vectors of this cognitive Decision support System modeling. Keywords-Combined forecast, Cognition driven Decision Support System, Least square Support vector machine, ARIMA model, Extrapolative models. Supply chain demand forecast and tracking signals, Time series forecasting978-1-4799-7171-8/15/$31.00 ©2015 IEEE

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