Cohort Fertility Patterns in the Nordic Countries

Andersson, Gunnar; Rønsen, Marit; Knudsen, Lisbeth B.; Lappegård, Trude; Neyer, Gerda; Skrede, Kari; Teschner, Kathrin; Vikat, Andres

doi:10.4054/demres.2009.20.14

Cited by 211 publications

(244 citation statements)

References 38 publications

(36 reference statements)

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“…In this context, the ever expanding time spent in education further delays first births (Blossfeld and Huinink 1991;Kravdal 2004). As a result, women with higher levels of education have a later mean age at childbearing (Andersson et al 2009;Mills et al 2011) and, during the transition from lower to higher levels of education the associated fertility postponement leads to lower levels of period fertility. Second, a higher level of education entails enhanced human capital and a higher earnings potential, on which women may want to capitalise in the labour market.…”

Section: Educationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Apart from Iceland which retained TFR around replacement level (reaching 2.23 in 2009, but declining thereafter), Norway has the highest completed fertility (Andersson et al 2009) as well as lowest ages at first birth and lowest proportion of childless women (around 12 percent for women born in the late 1960s). Denmark had the lowest fertility in the 1980s with TFR falling briefly below 1.4, but is now close to Finland with a TFR of 1.73 in 2012.…”

Section: Nordic Countriesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the Nordic countries, the fertility gradient by level of education has almost disappeared for women, and parity progression ratios to a second and third child are positively associated with women's education level (Kravdal and Rindfuss, 2008;Andersson et al 2009;Tesching 2012). In Belgium, Neels and De Wachter (2010) reported crossovers in fertility and education association, with above-average completed fertility found among women with tertiary education born in the 1950s.…”

Section: Educationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Women born in the 1960s had their first child two to three years later than those born in the 1950s and mean age at first birth is now around 29 years. There has also been a steady increase in childlessness, reaching around 15 percent for women born in the 1960s (Andersson et al 2009). The great majority of Nordic women wish to have two or three children and voluntary childlessness stands at less than 5 percent (Thomson and Hoem 1998;Miettinen 2010).…”

Section: Nordic Countriesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Future Fertility in Low Fertility Countries

Basten

Sobotka

Zeman

et al. 2014

World Population and Human Capital in the Twenty-First Century

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in Future Fertility in Low Fertility Countries AbstractThis paper discusses results of the global survey of experts on the future of low fertility in low-fertility countries. The survey was coordinated by the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital as a part of an effort to produce global argumentbased population projections by age, sex and level of education. First we give an overview of fertility changes in major low-fertility regions. Next we outline main theoretical arguments and review a wide range of factors contributing to fertility change and variation in contemporary low-fertility settings. Subsequently, we present survey results based on 184 assessments of over 170 experts analysing 41 countries with currently low or aroundreplacement fertility and Israel. These experts provided forecasts of period total fertility rate (TFR) in 2030 and 2050, estimated 80% confidence interval of their forecast and assessed the validity and potential impact on fertility of 46 factors. We also compare expert-derived projections of the TFR trends with the forecasts formulated by the UN World Population Prospects in 2010. The survey results in combination with the feedback provided by the invited experts then serve as a basis for formulating a set of projection scenarios for all low fertility countries up until 2050, which are additionally expanded (in a simpler form) through 2200. We present these scenarios and discuss past changes in fertility differences by level of education and their potential future trends in main regions. Presented analyses and projections indicate that a global convergence of fertility to around replacement level, envisioned in the UN projections, appears unlikely. Continuing differentiation combined with partial convergence in fertility towards lower levels is suggested as a more plausible scenario, with East Asia (including China) as well as Russia expected to have sustained very low fertility below 1.5 through 2050.

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Section: Educationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Nordic Countriesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Educationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Nordic Countriesmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Future Fertility in Low Fertility Countries

Basten

Sobotka

Zeman

et al. 2014

World Population and Human Capital in the Twenty-First Century

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“…Finland has also seen its childlessness levels increase more rapidly in recent decades than most other European countries (Miettinen et al 2015). Finland's fertility regime and childbearing patterns are similar in many respects to those of the other Nordic countries (Andersson et al 2009). Thus, the cohort fertility rate in Finland is close to the rate in Denmark of around 1.90 (for women born in , and is somewhat lower than the rates in Norway and Sweden of slightly higher than two (Myrskylä et al 2013).…”

Section: General Trends In Fertility and Childlessness: Finland As Thmentioning

confidence: 85%

Childlessness in Finland

Rotkirch

Miettinen

2017

Demographic Research Monographs

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"-Well, life didn't turn out as expected."Recently, I (the first author of this chapter) attended a school reunion where I caught up with former classmates, many of whom I had not seen for decades. When I spoke to one of the attendees, I was intrigued by her frank answer, quoted above, to my general question about how she was doing. Finns have preserved the touching habit of taking small talk seriously. So I asked her what she meant. "-For a start, I have no children."Since my former classmates are now approaching 50, it was clear that the childbearing years were over for the women in the room. Most of the people gathered had a couple of teenagers at home, while some had older children who had already moved out. Some of the men had paired up with younger women and had toddlers. As so often in such social situations, how the children are doing emerged as the easiest, safest discussion topic in the noisy room. Even if the children have problems, they can be shared anecdotally, or glossed over by a superficial answer.The topic of childlessness is much more sensitive. Finns are liberal and secular in their attitudes towards family life. As early as in the 1980s, over 70 % of Finnish women surveyed said they did not believe that a woman has to have children in order to be fulfilled (Nikander 1992), and only 20 % said they thought that a person could not be completely happy unless he or she has children (Paajanen et al. 2007). Although there is no strong stigma associated with childlessness in Finland, it is still not easy to ask people why they are childless, in part because the reasons they might

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Spatial variation in fertility across Europe: Patterns and determinants

Campisi

Kulu

Mikolai

et al. 2020

Population Space and Place

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This study investigates spatial variation in fertility in Europe. We analyse spatial variation in total fertility rates using small-scale geographical data from 21 European countries for 2010 and investigate the role economic, sociocultural, and spatial factors play in regional fertility levels. We compare the performance of conventional ordinary least squares regression and multilevel modelling with that of different spatial regression models and show that the spatial approach is superior for modelling regional fertility variation. The analysis shows that fertility levels in a region are strongly related to gross domestic product per capita and the share of divorced individuals in the region, and fertility levels in neighbouring regions, supporting that all three realms of fertility determinants-economic, sociocultural, and spatial-are relevant for understanding modern fertility variation. K E Y W O R D SEurope, NUTS 3, spatial lag model, spatial regression, spatial variation, total fertility rate

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Cohort Fertility Patterns in the Nordic Countries

Cited by 211 publications

References 38 publications

Future Fertility in Low Fertility Countries

Future Fertility in Low Fertility Countries

Childlessness in Finland

Spatial variation in fertility across Europe: Patterns and determinants

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