Coexistence of different serotypes of dengue virus

Esteva, Luis; Vargas, Cristóbal

doi:10.1007/s00285-002-0168-4

Cited by 147 publications

(112 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…Tuning models by comparison to actual data have also been attempted, e.g., by the estimation of the basal transmission rate for age-stratified data from Thailand [20]. Other models have considered the role of a unique vector in the transmission of multiple diseases, as more than one dengue serotype [21,23,24] or the concurrent transmission of yellow fever in dengue infested areas [25]. Finally, the effect of vector control have already been explicitly analyzed in ODE models [23,24,26].…”

Section: The Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Periodic forcing in a three-level cellular automata model for a vector-transmitted disease

et al. 2009

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The transmission of vector infectious diseases, which produces complex spatiotemporal patterns, is analyzed by a periodically forced two-dimensional cellular automata model. The system, which comprises three population levels, is introduced to describe complex features of the dynamics of the vector transmitted dengue epidemics, known to be very sensitive to seasonal variables. The three coupled levels represent the human, the adult and immature vector populations. The dynamics includes external seasonality forcing (rainfall intensity data), human and mosquito mobility, and vector control effects. The model parameters, even if bounded to well defined intervals obtained from reported data, can be selected to reproduce specific epidemic outbursts. In the current study, explicit results are obtained by comparison with actual data retrieved from the time-series of dengue epidemics in two cities in Brazil. The results show fluctuations that are not captured by mean-field models. It also reveals the qualitative behavior of the spatiotemporal patterns of the epidemics. In the extreme situation of absence of external periodic drive, the model predicts completely distinct long time evolution. The model is robust in the sense that it is able to reproduce the time series of dengue epidemics of different cities, provided the forcing term takes into account the local rainfall modulation. Finally, the dependence between epidemics threshold and vector control undergoes a transition from power law to stretched exponential behavior due to human mobility effect.

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Section: The Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Periodic forcing in a three-level cellular automata model for a vector-transmitted disease

et al. 2009

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“…Despite the simplicity of these models, they have been successfully applied to a variety of cases [14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21] in the assessment of the propagation of an epidemic disease. In the form of differential equations, their dynamics is well-known in the literature of the theme where they are usually called general solutions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probing into the effectiveness of self-isolation policies in epidemic control

Crokidakis

Queirós

2012

J. Stat. Mech.

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Abstract.In this work, we inspect the reliability of controlling and quelling an epidemic disease mimicked by a Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) model defined on a complex network by means of current and implementable quarantine and isolation policies. Specifically, we consider that each individual in the network is originally linked to two types of individuals: members of the same household and acquaintances. The topology of this network evolves taking into account a probability q that aims at representing the quarantine or isolation process in which the connection with acquaintances is disrupted according to standard policies of control of epidemics. Within current policies of self-isolation and standard infection rates, our results show that the propagation is either only controllable for hypothetical rates of compliance or uncontrollable at all.

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“…Consequently, the mathematical modeling of diseases with multiple pathogen strains, such as dengue fever, HIV/AIDS, influenza, malaria and West Nile virus, has received considerable attention (see, for instance, [1,2,12,15,19,27,29,23,26,34,39] and some of the references therein). These studies have, in general, focussed on the determination of threshold condition(s) for the co-existence of the strains, as well as the evaluation of the role of cross-immunity (defined as a scenario where infection with one strain confers partial or complete protection against infection with another strain) in the transmission dynamics of the disease strains.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cross-immunity-induced backward bifurcation for a model of transmission dynamics of two strains of influenza

Garba

Safi

Gumel

2013

Nonlinear Analysis: Real World Applications

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A new deterministic model for the transmission dynamics of two strains of influenza is designed and used to qualitatively assess the role of cross-immunity on the transmission process. It is shown that incomplete cross-immunity could induce the phenomenon of backward bifurcation when the associated reproduction number is less than unity. The model undergoes competitive exclusion (where Strain i drives out Strain j to extinction whenever R 0i > 1 > R 0j ; i, j = 1, 2, i ̸ = j). For the case where infection with one strain confers complete immunity against infection with the other strain, it is shown that the disease-free equilibrium of the model is globally-asymptotically stable whenever the reproduction number is less than unity. In the absence of cross-immunity, the model can have a continuum of co-existence endemic equilibria (which is shown to be globally-asymptotically stable for a special case). When infection with one strain confers incomplete immunity against the other. Numerical simulations of the model show that the two strains co-exist, with Strain i dominating (but not driving out Strain j), whenever R 0i > R 0j > 1.

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Coexistence of different serotypes of dengue virus

Cited by 147 publications

References 8 publications

Periodic forcing in a three-level cellular automata model for a vector-transmitted disease

Periodic forcing in a three-level cellular automata model for a vector-transmitted disease

Probing into the effectiveness of self-isolation policies in epidemic control

Cross-immunity-induced backward bifurcation for a model of transmission dynamics of two strains of influenza

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