Coastal sea level changes, observed and projected during the 20th and 21st century

Carson, Mark; Köhl, Armin; Stammer, Detlef; Slangen, Aimée B. A.; Katsman, Caroline A.; Wal, R. S. W. van de; Church, John A.; White, Neil J.

doi:10.1007/s10584-015-1520-1

Cited by 153 publications

(141 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…Kopp et al [2014] determine a secular signal of 13 ± 2 cm (95% uncertainty) at this location that they interpret as being due to GIA. In contrast, Carson et al [2016] adopt the model results of Peltier [2004] for this locality, giving a RSL value of 18 cm; their uncertainty estimate of 15 cm is determined from taking the difference between two global GIA models and adopting this as an estimate of the standard error [Slangen scenarios considered and using the median value for each contribution except glacial isostatic adjustment, where the best-estimate is used. For comparison, the median global mean value (determined for the same time period as the regional projections) for each contribution is indicated in each frame as a solid line in the corresponding color (note that each value is cumulatively added).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Future sea-level changes will be spatially variable [Milne et al, 2009;Cazenave and Cozannet, 2014] and so risk assessment should be based on local rather than global projections [Field et al, 2014]. Various mechanisms both internal and external to the world's oceans lead to these departures from the global mean change, which can be considerable in some regions [Slangen et al, 2012;Carson et al, 2016].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The contribution of glacial isostatic adjustment to projections of sea‐level change along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts of North America

et al. 2016

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We determine the contribution of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) to future relative sea-level change for the North American coastline between Newfoundland and Texas. We infer GIA model parameters using recently compiled and quality-assessed databases of past sea-level changes, including new databases for the United States Gulf Coast and Atlantic Canada. At 13 cities along this coastline, we estimate the GIA contribution to range from a few centimeters (e.g., 3 [−1 to 9] cm Miami) to a few decimeters (e.g., 18 [12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22] cm, Halifax) for the period 2085-2100 relative to 2006-2015 (1− ranges given). We provide estimates of uncertainty in the GIA component using two different methods; the more conservative approach produces total ranges (1− confidence) that vary from 3 to 16 cm for the cities considered. Contributions from ocean steric and dynamic changes as well as those from changes in land ice are also estimated to provide context for the GIA projections. When summing the contributions from all three processes at the 13 cities considered along this coastline, using median or best-estimate values, the GIA signal comprises 5-38% of the total depending on the adopted climate forcing and location. The contributions from ocean dynamic/steric changes and ice mass loss are similar in amplitude but with spatial variation that approximately cancels, resulting in GIA dominating the net spatial variability north of 35 ∘ N.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The contribution of glacial isostatic adjustment to projections of sea‐level change along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts of North America

et al. 2016

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“…Subsequent advances (following Katsman et al [125], Slangen et al [126], and Church et al [127]) enabled this to be done in the AR5, which therefore presented projections of RSL change including all the above-mentioned effects except tectonics, which were also excluded. A number of regional projections and projections at coastal tide gauge sites, building on the AR4 and AR5 assessments and using the AR5 approach, have also been completed [120,[128][129][130][131][132][133][134][135]. Slangen et al [135] also made RSL projections including all effects based on CMIP5 simulations of ocean climate change, combined with somewhat different estimates for the land-ice contributions from the AR5 assessment.…”

Section: Regional Projections and Emergence Time Of The Forced Signalmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent Progress in Understanding and Projecting Regional and Global Mean Sea Level Change

Clark

Church

Gregory

et al. 2015

Curr Clim Change Rep

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Considerable progress has been made in understanding the present and future regional and global sea level in the 2 years since the publication of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Here, we evaluate how the new results affect the AR5's assessment of (i) historical sea level rise, including attribution of that rise and implications for the sea level budget, (ii) projections of the components and of total global mean sea level (GMSL), and (iii) projections of regional variability and emergence of the anthropogenic signal. In each of these cases, new work largely provides additional evidence in support of the AR5 assessment, providing greater confidence in those findings. Recent analyses confirm the twentieth century sea level rise, with some analyses showing a slightly smaller rate before 1990 and some a slightly larger value than reported in the AR5. There is now more evidence of an acceleration in the rate of rise. Ongoing ocean heat uptake and associated thermal expansion have continued since 2000, and are consistent with ocean thermal expansion reported in the AR5. A significant amount of heat is being stored deeper in the water column, with a larger rate of heat uptake since 2000 compared to the previous decades and with the largest storage in the Southern Ocean. The first formal detection studies for ocean thermal expansion and glacier mass loss since the AR5 have confirmed the AR5 finding of a significant anthropogenic contribution to sea level rise over the last 50 years. New projections of glacier loss from two regions suggest smaller contributions to GMSL rise from these regions than in studies assessed by the AR5; additional regional studies are required to further assess whether there are broader implications of these results. Mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet, primarily as a result of increased surface melting, and from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, primarily as a result of increased ice discharge, has accelerated. The largest estimates of acceleration in mass loss from the two ice sheets for 2003-2013 equal or exceed the acceleration of GMSL rise calculated from the satellite altimeter sea level record over the longer period of 1993-2014. However, when increased mass gain in land water storage and parts of East Antarctica, and decreased mass loss from glaciers in Alaska and some other regions are taken into account, the net acceleration in the ocean mass gain is consistent with the satellite altimeter record. New studies suggest that a marine ice sheet instability (MISI) may have been initiated in parts of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), but that it will affect only a limited number of ice streams in the twenty-first century. New projections of mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets by 2100, including a contribution from parts of WAIS undergoing unstable retreat, suggest a contribution that falls largely within the likely range (i.e., two thirds probability) of the AR5. These new results increase confidence in the AR5 likel...

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“…Sea level variability and changes have exerted a substantial socioeconomic impact via their coastal manifestations (Nicholls and Cazenave 2010;Carson et al 2016). Yet, understanding of coastal sea levels, especially along the western boundary regions where strong western boundary currents exist, has advanced slowly in comparison with that of open ocean sea levels.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Western Boundary Sea Level: A Theory, Rule of Thumb, and Application to Climate Models

Minobe

Terada

Qiu

et al. 2017

Journal of Physical Oceanography

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To better understand coastal sea level variability and changes, a theory that predicts sea levels along a curved western boundary using interior ocean sea level information is proposed. The western boundary sea level at a particular latitude is expressed by the sum of contributions from interior sea levels propagating onto the western boundary by long Rossby waves between that latitude and a higher latitude, and from the western boundary sea level at the higher latitude. This theory is examined by using a linear, reduced gravity model. A comparison between the theory and the model shows good agreement. A simple scaling law (or rule of thumb) derived from the theory provides a measure of the higher-latitude sea level and ocean interior sea level contributions. The theory is then tested using data from 34 climate models in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) for dynamic sea level changes between the end of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. The theory captures the nearly uniform sea level rise from the Labrador Sea to New York City (NYC), with a reduction in the increase of sea level farther south toward the equator, qualitatively consistent with the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble, even though the theory underestimates the equatorward reduction rate. Along the South American east coast, the theory successfully reproduced the spatial pattern of the sea level change. The theory suggests a strong link between a sea level rise hot spot along the northeastern coast of North America and the sea level increase in the Labrador Sea, consistent with the result that rates of NYC sea level rise are highly correlated to those in the Labrador Sea in CMIP5 models.

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Coastal sea level changes, observed and projected during the 20th and 21st century

Cited by 153 publications

References 31 publications

The contribution of glacial isostatic adjustment to projections of sea‐level change along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts of North America

The contribution of glacial isostatic adjustment to projections of sea‐level change along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts of North America

Recent Progress in Understanding and Projecting Regional and Global Mean Sea Level Change

Western Boundary Sea Level: A Theory, Rule of Thumb, and Application to Climate Models

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