CO2 and energy efficiency car standards in the EU in the context of a decarbonisation strategy: A model-based policy assessment

Siskos, Pelopidas; Capros, Pantélis; Vita, Alessia De

doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2015.04.024

Cited by 42 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 52 publications

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“…The current planning foresees a reduction of average CO 2 emissions of new car registrations in 2030 by 37.5% relative to 2021.Several long-term scenarios foresee electrification of car mobility at least in the period after 2030 as a cost-effective option for decarbonisation in the EU and other countries. The usual scenarios combine electrification with a drop of battery costs driven by massive production and development of a large network for battery recharging [5][6][7][8][9][10].Although the long-term picture seems clear enough according to studies found in the literature, the developments anticipated to take place in the early stages still remain uncertain. The decade 2020-2030 is crucial in preparing the grounds for the massive transition towards electrification.…”

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confidence: 99%

Factors Influencing Electric Vehicle Penetration in the EU by 2030: A Model-Based Policy Assessment

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The European Commission (EC) has set ambitious CO2 emission reduction objectives for the transport sector by 2050. In this context, most decarbonisation scenarios for transport foresee large market penetration of electric vehicles in 2030 and 2050. The emergence of electrified car mobility is, however, uncertain due to various barriers such as battery costs, range anxiety and dependence on battery recharging networks. Those barriers need to be addressed in the 2020–2030 decade, as this is key to achieving electrification at a large scale in the longer term. The paper explores the uncertainties prevailing in the first decade and the mix of policies to overcome the barriers by quantifying a series of sensitivity analysis scenarios of the evolution of the car markets in the EU Member States and the impacts of each barrier individually. The model used is PRIMES-TREMOVE, which has been developed by E3MLab and constitutes a detailed energy-economic model for the transport sector. Based on model results, the paper assesses the market, energy, emission and cost impacts of various CO2 car standards, infrastructure development plans with different geographic coverage and a range of battery cost reductions driven by learning and mass industrial production. The assessment draws on the comparison of 29 sensitivity scenarios for the EU, which show that removing the barriers in the decade 2020–2030 is important for electrification emergence. The results show that difficult policy dilemmas exist between adopting stringent standards and infrastructure of wide coverage to push technology and market development and adverse effects on costs, in case the high cost of batteries persists. However, if the pace of battery cost reductions is fast, a weak policy for standards and infrastructure is not cost-effective and sub-optimal. These policies are shown to have impacts on the competition between pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles. Drivers that facilitate electrification also favour the uptake of the former technology, the latter being a reasonable choice only in case the barriers persist and obstruct electrification.

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Factors Influencing Electric Vehicle Penetration in the EU by 2030: A Model-Based Policy Assessment

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“…To be realistic, models needs to study the impact of at least vehicle taxes, road taxes, fuel taxes, regulations, standards and biofuel mandates, since these are very common across the world, often all used simultaneously. Some recent studies recognise this limitation of current IAMs and integrate additional policies, including fuel taxes, registration or road use (Deetman et al, 2013, Yin et al, 2015, Zachariadis, 2005; Technology subsidies and mandates (Bertram et al, 2015, Deetman et al, 2013, Yin et al, 2015, Zachariadis, 2005; efficiency policies (Deetman et al, 2015, Siskos et al, 2015, Yin et al, 2015, Zachariadis, 2005, biofuel blends and mandates (Calvin et al, 2014). The FTT model includes eight policy instruments (vehicle taxes, registration taxes, fuel taxes, vehicle subsidies, regulations, fuel economy standards, biofuel mandates and possible kick-start programs) and can be used to model policies for each individual countries.…”

Section: Policy Assessment For Emissions From the Transport Sectormentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrated assessment modelling as a positive science: private passenger road transport policies to meet a climate target well below 2 ∘C

2018

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Transport generates a large and growing component of global greenhouse gas emissions contributing to climate change. Effective transport emissions reduction policies are needed in order to reach a climate target well below 2 ∘ C. Representations of technology evolution in current integrated assessment models (IAM) make use of systems optimisations that may not always provide sufficient insight on consumer response to realistic policy packages for extensive use in policy-making. Here, we introduce FTT: transport, an evolutionary technology diffusion simulation model for road transport technology, as an IAM sub-component, which features sufficiently realistic features of consumers and of existing technological trajectories that enables to simulate the impact of detailed climate policies in private passenger road transport. Integrated to the simulation-based macroeconometric IAM E3ME-FTT, a plausible scenario of transport decarbonisation is given, defined by a detailed transport policy package, that reaches sufficient emissions reductions to achieve the 2 ∘ C target of the Paris Agreement. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1007/s10584-018-2262-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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“…Considering that the number of cars is expected to increase from roughly 700 million to two billion over the period 2000-2050 [5], a dramatic increase in gasoline and diesel demand with implications on energy security, climate change and urban air quality appears to be very likely [6][7][8][9][10]. For an Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) car, use stage is responsible for a relevant quota of total Life Cycle (LC) impact (e.g., 85% in terms of Global Warming Potential (GWP)); the latter is mainly due to Fuel Consumption (FC), which strongly depends on vehicle mass [11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18].…”

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confidence: 99%

Lightweight Design Solutions in the Automotive Field: Environmental Modelling Based on Fuel Reduction Value Applied to Diesel Turbocharged Vehicles

2016

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A tailored model for the assessment of environmental benefits achievable by "light-weighting" in the automotive field is presented. The model is based on the Fuel Reduction Value (FRV) coefficient, which expresses the Fuel Consumption (FC) saving involved by a 100 kg mass reduction. The work is composed of two main sections: simulation and environmental modelling. Simulation modelling performs an in-depth calculation of weight-induced FC whose outcome is the FRV evaluated for a wide range of Diesel Turbocharged (DT) vehicle case studies. Environmental modelling converts fuel saving to impact reduction basing on the FRVs obtained by simulations. Results show that for the considered case studies, FRV is within the range 0.115-0.143 and 0.142-0.388 L/100 km × 100 kg, respectively, for mass reduction only and powertrain adaptation (secondary effects). The implementation of FRVs within the environmental modelling represents the added value of the research and makes the model a valuable tool for application to real case studies of automotive lightweight LCA.

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CO2 and energy efficiency car standards in the EU in the context of a decarbonisation strategy: A model-based policy assessment

Cited by 42 publications

References 52 publications

Factors Influencing Electric Vehicle Penetration in the EU by 2030: A Model-Based Policy Assessment

Factors Influencing Electric Vehicle Penetration in the EU by 2030: A Model-Based Policy Assessment

Integrated assessment modelling as a positive science: private passenger road transport policies to meet a climate target well below 2 ∘C

Lightweight Design Solutions in the Automotive Field: Environmental Modelling Based on Fuel Reduction Value Applied to Diesel Turbocharged Vehicles

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