Transport generates a large and growing component of global greenhouse gas emissions contributing to climate change. Effective transport emissions reduction policies are needed in order to reach a climate target well below 2 ∘ C. Representations of technology evolution in current integrated assessment models (IAM) make use of systems optimisations that may not always provide sufficient insight on consumer response to realistic policy packages for extensive use in policy-making. Here, we introduce FTT: transport, an evolutionary technology diffusion simulation model for road transport technology, as an IAM sub-component, which features sufficiently realistic features of consumers and of existing technological trajectories that enables to simulate the impact of detailed climate policies in private passenger road transport. Integrated to the simulation-based macroeconometric IAM E3ME-FTT, a plausible scenario of transport decarbonisation is given, defined by a detailed transport policy package, that reaches sufficient emissions reductions to achieve the 2 ∘ C target of the Paris Agreement. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1007/s10584-018-2262-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

In this paper we apply a model of technological diffusion, Future Technology Transformations in the Transport Sector (FTT: Transport), linked to the E3ME macroeconomic model, to study possible future technological transitions in personal passenger transport in four East Asian countries. We assess how targeted policies could impact on these transitions by defining four scenarios based on policies that aim to reduce emissions from transport. For each country we find that an integrated approach of tax incentives, subsidies, regulations (fuel economy efficiency), kick-start programs and biofuel programs yield the most significant emission reductions because, when combined, they accelerate effectively the diffusion of electric vehicles in the region.