Clustering or Scattering? The Spatial Distribution of Cropland in a Metropolitan Region, 1960–2010

Abstract

This article presents empirical results of a multivariate analysis run with the aim to identify (apparent and latent) socioeconomic transformations that shape the distribution pattern of cropland in a metropolitan region of southern Europe (Athens, Greece) over a sufficiently long time interval spanning from 1960 to 2010. The study area is representative of monocentric cities expanding in an unregulated fashion and experiencing sequential cycles of economic growth and recession. Percent share of cropland in total municipal area increased moderately over time. A non-linear relationship with the distance from downtown Athens was also observed, indicating that the highest rates of cropland were observed at a distance ranging between 20 and 30 km from the inner city. A multivariate regression was run by decade at each municipality of the study area using 11 predictors with the aim to identify the factors most associated with cropland decline along urban fringes. Distance from downtown Athens, soil and climate quality, population growth rate, and competing land use were the most relevant factors correlated with cropland expansion (or decline) in the study area. Competing land use was particularly important for cropland decline in a first urbanization phase (1960–1980), while population growth rate—and hence an increased human pressure—was positively associated with agricultural areas in a subsequent phase (1990–2010). In these regards, per capita urban land had a non-linear spatial behavior, being correlated negatively with cropland in 1960 and 1970 and positively in 2010, possibly indicating a moderate change from a monocentric model towards a more dispersed metropolitan configuration impacting distribution of agricultural areas. Empirical findings of this study suggest that effective strategies supporting peri-urban agriculture require a comprehensive knowledge of the local socioeconomic context and relevant biophysical conditions—specifically focusing on the dominant soil and climate attributes.

Sustainable Land Management, Wildfire Risk and the Role of Grazing in Mediterranean Urban-Rural Interfaces: A Regional Approach from Greece

“…Even if wildfires are a recurrent issue in Greece, land abandonment and livestock decline in fringe districts have led to a progressive expansion of forests and shrubland into farmland. Attica is a representative example of such dynamics [71]. Measuring environmental and socioeconomic factors causing increased fire risk together is essential from the standpoint of operational wildfire management agendas [38][39][40][41][42].…”

“…Attica is the most populated administrative region of Greece, hosting 35% of the total population in the country (Figure 1). Extending 3025 km 2 of land with a density of 1250 inhabitants/km 2 , Attica includes the capital city, Athens, whose area covers nearly 430 km 2 with a population density of nearly 15,000 inhabitants/km 2 [71][72][73]. In the last few centuries, the population in Attica moved from upland areas to lowland areas and along the coastal strip [75,76], and embraced different development types, which led to a shift from agrarian (or pastoral) management to urbanization [77][78][79].…”

“…A case study was based in a largely vulnerable Mediterranean peri-urban area (Attica, Greece) with the aim of discussing possible solutions to support traditional (wild) livestock activities at the fringe of large cities [70]. Land-use dynamics in Attica, a region including the Greek capital city of Athens, are representative of the abandonment of traditional agricultural systems that are typical of Mediterranean urban agglomerations [71]. Assuming land abandonment as a driver of fuel accumulation in natural landscapes and nomadic pastoralism as a means to control biomass and thus reduce fire risk [72][73][74], this work debates a more holistic management system for Mediterranean peri-urban landscapes, integrating sustainable land planning and fire-risk measures.…”

Population Dynamics in Southern Europe: A Local-Scale Analysis, 1961–2011

“…Local development and territorial disparities represent key issues in regional science [1]. While highly informative of current patterns and trends in local development, a comparative analysis of relevant socioeconomic and demographic attributes over a relatively long-time interval and detailed spatial scale is actually lacking for Europe [2][3][4][5][6].…”

“…Local-scale population dynamics is probably one of the most pertinent variables whose investigation may advance knowledge on the recent evolution of European regions, revealing complex territorial and social transformations [6,26,27] that lead to different models of urban growth [1,[28][29][30]. While urbanization-the concentration of population and economic activities in cities and towns-resulted from the uneven industrial development of the 18th century and the expansion of international commerce in the 19th and 20th centuries [31], population concentration in central cities was mostly dependent on internal migration during the last century.…”