Closing the TIMES Integrated Assessment Model (TIAM‐FR) Raw Materials Gap with Life Cycle Inventories

Abstract

Summary Integrated assessment models are in general not constrained by mineral resource supply. In this paper, we introduce a material accounting method as a first step toward addressing the raw materials gap in the TIMES integrated assessment model (TIAM‐FR version). The method consists of attributing process‐based life cycle inventories (LCIs) taken from the ecoinvent 3.3 database to the TIAM‐FR technology processes constituting the global energy system. We demonstrate the method performing a prospective exercise on the electricity‐generating sector in a second shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP2) baseline scenario on the 2010–2100 time horizon. We start by disaggregating the LCIs into three separate life phases (construction, operation, and decommissioning) and coupling them to their respective TIAM‐FR electric outputs (new capacities, electricity production, and end‐of‐life capacities) in order to estimate the annual mineral resource requirements. Prospective uses of fossil fuels and metallic and nonmetallic mineral resources are quantified dynamically at the life phase and regional levels (15 world regions). The construction of hydropower, solar power, and wind power plants generate increasing use of metallic and nonmetallic mineral resources in successive peak and valley periods. However, the use of fossil fuels is much higher than the use of mineral resources all along the horizon. Finally, we evaluate how sensitive the global material use is to the allocation of a share of infrastructure activities to the decommissioning phase. This approach could be extended to other integrated assessment models and possibly other energy sectors.

Critical raw materials and transportation sector electrification: A detailed bottom-up analysis in world transport

“…Roelich et al have also quantified the criticality of neodymium focused on the roll-out of wind turbines for the UK low-carbon electricity scenario generated by the IEA ETP model, a bottom-up energy optimization model [28]. In that vein, Beylot et al have quantified some raw material needs as a response to the French energy transition by 2050 (with a focus on power sector) based on prospective scenarios of the French National Alliance for the Coordination of Research for Energy (ANCRE) [29], while Boubault et al [30] have quantified them using the TIAM-FR scenario outputs through to 2100. Viebahn et al [30] have pointed out the potential supply risks owing to material dependencies on a few supplier countries in the transformation of the German energy system towards more renewable sources.…”

“…In that vein, Beylot et al have quantified some raw material needs as a response to the French energy transition by 2050 (with a focus on power sector) based on prospective scenarios of the French National Alliance for the Coordination of Research for Energy (ANCRE) [29], while Boubault et al [30] have quantified them using the TIAM-FR scenario outputs through to 2100. Viebahn et al [30] have pointed out the potential supply risks owing to material dependencies on a few supplier countries in the transformation of the German energy system towards more renewable sources. These studies have provided important insights into the relative importance of dynamic analysis of criticality in order to reduce the probability of 'locking-in' to technologies that are currently attractive but potentially critical for the future.…”

Devising Mineral Resource Supply Pathways to a Low-Carbon Electricity Generation by 2100

“…Using TIAM-FR, we determine a baseline scenario that is comparable to a second shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP2) [20]. The assumptions regarding population and gross domestic product growth for each region were previously reported in the Supplementary Material of [19]. From the baseline scenario, a 2 • C scenario is obtained by setting a maximum global warming target of 2 • C by 2100 (with an overshoot tolerance of 0.1 • C).…”

“…We compute material usage scenarios for EG technologies using a method previously described [19]. It is based on the combination of the TIAM-FR electric outputs and life-cycle inventories of EG technologies.…”

“…In order to investigate the consumption of all substances found in the life cycles of electricity-generating (EG) technologies, we introduced an original method [19] to combine life-cycle inventories (LCIs) with the electricity outputs of the TIMES integrated assessment model (TIAM-FR). This method used ecoinvent 3.3, one of the most complete process LCI databases.…”