Climatological variables and the incidence of Dengue fever in Barbados

Abstract

A retrospective study to determine relationships between the incidence of dengue cases and climatological variables and to obtain a predictive equation was carried out for the relatively small Caribbean island of Barbados which is divided into 11 parishes. The study used the weekly dengue cases and precipitation data for the years (1995 - 2000) that occurred in the small area of a single parish. Other climatological data were obtained from the local meteorological offices. The study used primarily cross correlation analysis and found the strongest correlation with the vapour pressure at a lag of 6 weeks. A weaker correlation occurred at a lag of 7 weeks for the precipitation. The minimum temperature had its strongest correlation at a lag of 12 weeks and the maximum temperature a lag of 16 weeks. There was a negative correlation with the wind speed at a lag of 3 weeks. The predictive models showed a maximum explained variance of 35%.

Impact of Climate Change on Health and Disease in Latin America

“…Other studies in Mexico have reported similar results (Peterson et al, 2005). In Barbados, Puerto Rico and Dominica, climate variability has been linked to dengue incidence (Depradine and Lovell, 2004;Schreiber, 2001;RodriguezMorales, 2005).…”

Quantifying the added value of climate information in a spatio-temporal dengue model

“…Typically, the most significant time lags between temperature/precipitation and dengue are found to be around 1-2 months (Arcari et al, 2007;Cheong et al, 2013;Descloux et al, 2012;García et al, 2011;Gharbi et al, 2011;Gomes et al, 2012;Jeefoo et al, 2010;Lowe et al, 2011;Wu et al, 2007) , although some studies report lags of around 3-4 months (Bi et al, 2001;Chen et al, 2012;Depradine and Lovell, 2004;Yu et al, 2011) .…”

Literatura de cordel como estratégia educativa para prevenção da dengue

“…12 Segundo divulgado, as condições climáticas influenciam na incidência de casos de dengue, em decorrência do aumento da temperatura, da pluviosidade e da umidade do ar, por favorecer o aumento do número de criadouros disponíveis e também o desenvolvimento do mosquito. 20 Esta patologia tem acometido indivíduos de ambos os sexos, porém há registro de maior incidência em mulheres do que em homens, assim como há um maior número de casos em pessoas com faixas etárias mais elevadas. 21 Inúmeros são os fatores condicionantes para a reprodução e disseminação do Aedes aegypti.…”