Climatic warming, glacier recession and runoff from Alpine basins after the Little Ice Age maximum

Collins, David N.

doi:10.3189/172756408784700761

Cited by 65 publications

(52 citation statements)

References 8 publications

(14 reference statements)

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“…Braun and others, 2000;Jansson and others, 2003;Barnett and others, 2005;Hagg and Braun, 2005;Stahl and Moore, 2006;Collins, 2008;Moore and others, 2009). Therefore, when there is sustained glacier retreat it should be possible to quantify the influence of glacier retreat on watershed hydrology by identifying trends in these discharge characteristics.…”

Section: Trend Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

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Glacier recession and water resources in Peru’s Cordillera Blanca

et al. 2012

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ABSTRACT. The tropical glaciers of the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, are rapidly retreating, resulting in complex impacts on the hydrology of the upper Río Santa watershed. The effect of this retreat on water resources is evaluated by analyzing historical and recent time series of daily discharge at nine measurement points. Using the Mann-Kendall nonparametric statistical test, the significance of trends in three hydrograph parameters was studied. Results are interpreted using synthetic time series generated from a hydrologic model that calculates hydrographs based on glacier retreat sequences. The results suggest that seven of the nine study watersheds have probably crossed a critical transition point, and now exhibit decreasing dry-season discharge. Our results suggest also that once the glaciers completely melt, annual discharge will be lower than present by 2-30% depending on the watershed. The retreat influence on discharge will be more pronounced during the dry season than at other periods of the year. At La Balsa, which measures discharge from the upper Río Santa, the glacier retreat could lead to a decrease in dry-season average discharge of 30%.

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Section: Trend Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Collins, 2008;Milner and others, 2009;Moore and others, 2009). Four different phases were defined on the basis of significant trend changes that occur in model outputs while the glacier coverage decreases.…”

Section: Model Sensitivity To Glacier Retreat Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Glacier recession and water resources in Peru’s Cordillera Blanca

et al. 2012

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“…Consequently, future trends in total annual streamflow volume for purely snowmelt-dominated catchments are also uncertain, as changes in precipitation might (over)compensate for increased evaporation rates due to higher temperatures. While in glacierized catchments on the other hand runoff volumes will eventually decrease due to the retreating glaciers and subsequently reduced ice melt runoff volumes, prolonged periods of glacier mass loss can lead to increased glacier runoff volumes in the short term to midterm, depending on if increased melt rates are able to overcompensate for the loss in glacier area (e.g., Jansson et al, 2003;Beniston, 2003;Collins, 2008;Bliss et al, 2014). Detecting the occurrence of this moment of peak water is of high interest, e. g., for hydropower production and planning (Schaefli, 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected cryospheric and hydrological impacts of 21st century climate change in the Ötztal Alps (Austria) simulated using a physically based approach

Hanzer

Förster

Nemec

et al. 2018

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

100

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Abstract.A physically based hydroclimatological model (AMUNDSEN) is used to assess future climate change impacts on the cryosphere and hydrology of the Ötztal Alps (Austria) until 2100. The model is run in 100 m spatial and 3 h temporal resolution using in total 31 downscaled, bias-corrected, and temporally disaggregated EURO-CORDEX climate projections for the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios as forcing data, making this -to date -the most detailed study for this region in terms of process representation and range of considered climate projections. Changes in snow coverage, glacierization, and hydrological regimes are discussed both for a larger area encompassing the Ötztal Alps (1850 km 2 , 862-3770 m a.s.l.) as well as for seven catchments in the area with varying size (11-165 km 2 ) and glacierization (24-77 %).Results show generally declining snow amounts with moderate decreases (0-20 % depending on the emission scenario) of mean annual snow water equivalent in high elevations (> 2500 m a.s.l.) until the end of the century. The largest decreases, amounting to up to 25-80 %, are projected to occur in elevations below 1500 m a.s.l. Glaciers in the region will continue to retreat strongly, leaving only 4-20 % of the initial (as of 2006) ice volume left by 2100. Total and summer (JJA) runoff will change little during the early 21st century with simulated decreases (compared to 1997-2006) of up to 11 % (total) and 13 % (summer) depending on catchment and scenario, whereas runoff volumes decrease by up to 39 % (total) and 47 % (summer) towards the end of the century (2071-2100), accompanied by a shift in peak flows from July towards June.

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“…Although Huss et al (2008) did not explicitly calculate the contribution of glacier melt they simulated a substantial change of the mean monthly runoff regime from glacial to nival shifting the runoff maximum from July/August to May/June. Studying long-term hydrographs Collins (2008) found out that glacierized catchments in the upper Rhone basin already reached the maximum runoff between 1940 and 1950. Runoff from glacierized basins increased gradually from the Little Ice Age maximum in the late 19th century before rising rapidly in the 1940s.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…They concluded that in the 1940s Alpine glacier melt could have been stronger due to enhanced solar radiation. Therefore it could be possible that the currently lower runoff volumes noted by Collins (2008) in comparison to the 1940s and 1950s could be explained with the importance of radiation. Weber et al (2009 and reported on the application of the model DANUBIA, which was used to simulate the past and future glacier contribution for the river Danube and glacierized tributaries from the south (Inn and Salzach).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The relevance of glacier melt in the water cycle of the Alps: the example of Austria

Koboltschnig¹,

Schöner

2011

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. This paper quantifies the contribution of glacier melt to river runoff from compilation and statistical interpretation of data from available studies based on observations or glacio-hydrological modelling for the region of Austria (Austrian Salzach and Inn river basin). A logarithmic fit between the glacier melt contribution and the relative glacierized area was found not only for the long-term mean glacier contributions but also for the glacier melt contribution during the extreme hot an dry summer of 2003. Interestingly, the mean contributions of glacier melt to river runoff do not exceed 15 % for both river catchments and are uncorrelated to glacierization for glacierization values >10 %. This finding, however, has to be seen in the light of the general precipitation increase with altitude for the study region which levels out the increase of absolute melt with glacierization thus resulting in the rather constant value of glacier melt contribution. In order to qualitatively proof this finding another approach has been applied by calculating the quotient q A03 of the mean monthly August runoff in 2003 and the long-term mean August runoff for 38 gauging stations in Austria. The extreme summer 2003 was worth to be analysed as from the meteorological and glaciological point of view an extraordinary situation was observed. During June and July nearly the entire snow-cover melted and during August mainly bare ice melt of glaciers contributed to runoff. The q A03 quotients were calculated between 0.32 for a non-glacierized and 2.0 for a highly glacierized catchment. Using the results of this study the mean and maximum possible glacier melt contribution of catchments can be estimated based on the relative glacierized area. It can also be shown that the found correlation of glacierized area and glacier melt contribution is applicable for the Drau basin where yet no results of modelled glacier melt contributions are available.

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Climatic warming, glacier recession and runoff from Alpine basins after the Little Ice Age maximum

Cited by 65 publications

References 8 publications

Glacier recession and water resources in Peru’s Cordillera Blanca

Glacier recession and water resources in Peru’s Cordillera Blanca

Projected cryospheric and hydrological impacts of 21st century climate change in the Ötztal Alps (Austria) simulated using a physically based approach

The relevance of glacier melt in the water cycle of the Alps: the example of Austria

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