Climatic trends of extreme wave events caused by Arctic Cyclones in the western Arctic Ocean

Waseda, Takuji; Nose, Takehiko; Kodaira, Tsubasa; Sasmal, Kaushik; Webb, Adrean

doi:10.1016/j.polar.2020.100625

Cited by 19 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…The reanalyses collectively suggest that the strong negative trend over the southeast Siberian and East Asian outflow region is associated with a decrease in BB smoke and, perhaps, a more moderate decrease in ABF/sulfate from NAAPS-RA and MERRA-2. Other consistent features shared by the reanalyses include a negative ABF/sulfate trend over Europe due to decreased anthropogenic emissions (Breider et al, 2017) and a weak positive North Atlantic sea salt trend due possibly to an observed increase in cyclonic activities (Rinke et al, 2017;Waseda et al, 2021;Valkonen et al, 2021). It is notable that NAAPS-RA (and MERRA-2 after 2008) do not incorporate an ABF/sulfate emission trend.…”

Section: Aod Springtime Trendsmentioning

confidence: 68%

Arctic spring and summertime aerosol optical depth baseline from long-term observations and model reanalyses – Part 1: Climatology and trend

et al. 2022

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Abstract. We present an Arctic aerosol optical depth (AOD) climatology and trend analysis for 2003–2019 spring and summertime periods derived from a combination of multi-agency aerosol reanalyses, remote-sensing retrievals, and ground observations. This includes the U.S. Navy Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System ReAnalysis version 1 (NAAPS-RA v1), the NASA Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), and the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service ReAnalysis (CAMSRA). Spaceborne remote-sensing retrievals of AOD are considered from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR), and the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP). Ground-based data include sun photometer data from AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) sites and oceanic Maritime Aerosol Network (MAN) measurements. Aerosol reanalysis AODs and spaceborne retrievals show consistent climatological spatial patterns and trends for both spring and summer seasons over the lower Arctic (60–70∘ N). Consistent AOD trends are also found for the high Arctic (north of 70∘ N) from reanalyses. The aerosol reanalyses yield more consistent AOD results than climate models, can be verified well with AERONET, and corroborate complementary climatological and trend analysis. Speciated AODs are more variable than total AOD among the three reanalyses and a little more so for March–May (MAM) than for June–August (JJA). Black carbon (BC) AOD in the Arctic comes predominantly from biomass burning (BB) sources in both MAM and JJA, and BB overwhelms anthropogenic sources in JJA for the study period. AOD exhibits a multi-year negative MAM trend and a positive JJA trend in the Arctic during 2003–2019, due to an overall decrease in sulfate/anthropogenic pollution and a significant JJA increase in BB smoke. Interannual Arctic AOD variability is significantly large, driven by fine-mode and, specifically, BB smoke, with both smoke contribution and interannual variation larger in JJA than in MAM. It is recommended that climate models should account for BB emissions and BB interannual variabilities and trends in Arctic climate change studies.

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Section: Aod Springtime Trendsmentioning

confidence: 68%

Arctic spring and summertime aerosol optical depth baseline from long-term observations and model reanalyses – Part 1: Climatology and trend

et al. 2022

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“…Extreme total-AOD events dominated by sea salt contributions in the North Atlantic and Norwegian Sea increased slightly in 2010-2019. This was possibly due to the observed increase in cyclonic activities (Rinke et al, 2017;Waseda et al, 2021;Valkonen et al, 2021). Although the model simulation of CM AOD is not as skillful as that of FM, trend analysis of CM AOD which is based on relative change is arguably significant.…”

Section: Trends Of Extreme Aod Eventsmentioning

confidence: 97%

Arctic spring and summertime aerosol optical depth baseline from long-term observations and model reanalyses – Part 2: Statistics of extreme AOD events, and implications for the impact of regional biomass burning processes

et al. 2022

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Abstract. In a companion paper (Xian et al., 2022, part 1 of the study), we present an Arctic aerosol optical depth (AOD) climatology and trend analysis for 2003–2019 spring and summertime periods derived from a combination of aerosol reanalyses, remote-sensing retrievals, and ground observations. Continued from the previous discussion and as the second part of the study, we report the statistics and trends of Arctic AOD extreme events using the U.S. Navy Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System ReAnalysis version 1 (NAAPS-RA v1), the sun photometer data from the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) sites, and the oceanic Maritime Aerosol Network (MAN) measurements. Here, extreme AOD events are defined as events with AOD exceeding the 95th percentile (denoted “AOD95”) of AOD distributions for given locations using 6-hourly or daily AOD data. While AERONET and MAN data estimate the Arctic median 550 nm AOD value to be 0.07, the 95th percentile value is 0.24. Such extreme events are dominated by fine-mode aerosol particles, largely attributable to biomass burning (BB) smoke events for the North American Arctic, the Asian Arctic, and most areas of the Arctic Ocean. However, extreme AOD events for the lower European Arctic are more attributable to anthropogenic and biogenic fine particles. The extreme-event occurrence dominance of sea salt is largely limited to the North Atlantic and Norwegian Sea. The extreme AOD amplitudes of anthropogenic and biogenic fine-mode and sea salt AOD are, however, significantly lower than those regions where extreme smoke AOD is dominant. Even for sites distant from BB source regions, BB smoke is the principal driver of AOD variation above the AOD95 threshold. Maximum AOD values in the high Arctic in 2010–2019 have increased compared to 2003–2009, indicating stronger extreme BB smoke influence in more recent years. The occurrence of extreme smoke events tended to be more equally distributed over all months (April–August) during the 2003–2009 period while being more concentrated in the late season (July–August) during the 2010–2019 period. The temporal shift of the occurrence of AOD extreme events is likely due to improved control of early-season agriculture burning, climate-change-related increases in summertime lightning frequencies, and a reduction in anthropogenic pollution over the 2010–2019 period.

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“…All the reanalyses suggest that the negative trend over the southeast Siberia and East Asian outflow region is associated with a decrease in BB smoke, and a decrease in ABF/sulfate from NAAPS-RA and MERRA-2 in tandem. Other consistent features found across the reanalyses include the negative trend over Europe associated with decreasing ABF/sulfate, which is possibly related to anthropogenic emission decrease over the past two decades (Breider et al, 2017), as well as a weak positive trend of sea salt over the North Atlantic, which is possibly due to the observed increase in cyclonic activities there (Rinke et al, 2017;Waseda et al, 2021;Valkonen et al, 2021). It is worth noting that NAAPS-RA does not include emission trend for ABF, and MERRA-2 doesn't either after 2008, which means the ABF/sulfate trends seen from these two reanalyses are mostly driven by a negative AOD correction applied by the data assimilation systems.…”

Section: Aod Trends For Springtimementioning

confidence: 82%

Arctic spring and summertime aerosol optical depth baseline from long-term observations and model reanalyses, with implications for the impact of regional biomass burning processes

Xian

Zhang

Toth

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Abstract. We present an Arctic aerosol optical depth (AOD) climatology and trend analysis for 2003–2019 spring and summertime periods derived from a combination of multi-agency aerosol reanalyses, remote sensing retrievals, and ground observations. This includes the U.S. Navy Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System ReAnalysis version 1 (NAAPS-RA v1), the NASA Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), and the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service ReAnalysis (CAMSRA). Space-borne remote sensing retrievals of AOD are considered from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR), and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP). Ground-based data include sun photometer data from Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sites and oceanic Maritime Aerosol Network (MAN) measurements. Aerosol reanalysis AODs and space-borne retrievals show consistent climatological spatial patterns and trends for both spring and summer seasons over the sub-Arctic (60–70° N). Consistent signs in the AOD trend are also found for the high Arctic (north of 70° N) from reanalyses. The aerosol reanalyses yield more consistent AOD results than climate models, verify well with AERONET, and corroborate complementary climatological and trend analysis. Speciated AODs are more variable than total AOD among the three reanalyses, and a little more so for March–May (MAM) than for June–August (JJA). Black Carbon (BC) AOD in the Arctic comes predominantly from biomass burning sources in both MAM and JJA, and biomass burning overwhelms anthropogenic sources in JJA for the study period. AOD exhibits a negative trend in the Arctic in MAM, and a positive trend in JJA during 2003–2019, due to an overall decrease in sulfate/anthropogenic pollutions, and a significant increase in biomass burning smoke in JJA. Interannual Arctic AOD variability is significantly large, driven by fine-mode, and specifically, biomass burning (BB) smoke, though more so in JJA than in MAM. Extreme AOD events during spring and summer in the Arctic, defined as AOD greater than the 95th percentile value, are mainly attributed to BB smoke transport events. Extreme AOD cases tend to occur later in the season (i.e., July and August, in the latter decade rather than spreading over April–August in the early decade during 2003–2019) corresponding to a shift to a later time in extreme boreal BB activities.

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Climatic trends of extreme wave events caused by Arctic Cyclones in the western Arctic Ocean

Cited by 19 publications

References 20 publications

Arctic spring and summertime aerosol optical depth baseline from long-term observations and model reanalyses – Part 1: Climatology and trend

Arctic spring and summertime aerosol optical depth baseline from long-term observations and model reanalyses – Part 1: Climatology and trend

Arctic spring and summertime aerosol optical depth baseline from long-term observations and model reanalyses – Part 2: Statistics of extreme AOD events, and implications for the impact of regional biomass burning processes

Arctic spring and summertime aerosol optical depth baseline from long-term observations and model reanalyses, with implications for the impact of regional biomass burning processes

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