Ecological effects of climate change on terrestrial and marine ecosystems are increasingly apparent but evidence from freshwater is scarce, particularly in Asia. Using data from two subtropical Central China streams, we predicted the changes of some benthic macroinvertebrate communities under various climatic scenarios. Our results show that the average annual air temperature, in the study watershed, increased significantly (P < 0.05) by 0.6 °C over the last 30 years , whereas the average annual water flow declined by 30.9 m 3 s -1. Based on the winter sampling of benthic macroinvertebrates at four stream locations over last six years, we observed that macroinvertebrate abundance and Margalef diversity dropped with increasing water temperatures or decreasing smoothed sea surface temperatures (SSST). The winter macroinvertebrate abundance and biodiversity declined by 11.1% and 6.8% for every 1 °C water temperature rise. In contrast, increases in future SSST by one unit would increase winter macroinvertebrate abundance and biodiversity by 38.2% and 16.0%, respectively. Although many dominant taxa were predicted to persist when water temperatures increase by 1 °C, several scarce taxa, e.g., Orthocladius clarkei and Hippeutis umbilicalis, could be at a level of potential local extinction. Our identification of these links, between climate change and stream macroinvertebrate communities, has wide implications for the conservation of mountain stream ecosystems in the upper Yangtze River under scenarios of climate change.
IntroductionClimate change poses a considerable threat to biodiversity all over the world, especially at high latitudes and altitudes (BROWN et al., 2007). Early research on climate change focused on alterations in temperature, rainfall, and the extent of glaciers or snowpacks (BARNETT et al., 2005;BROWN et al., 2007;DURANCE and ORMEROD, 2007). Since the 1990s, the relationship between climate change and biodiversity conservation has attracted increasing attention because of the potential influence of climatic fluctuations on global ecosystems and regional biodiversity (DAUFRESNE et al., 2004;HARTE et al., 2004;THOMAS et al., 2004). Streams play an important role in the hydrological cycle and the biogeochemistry of nutrients, linking terrestrial to aquatic ecosystems, and provide many resources for human use (VANNOTE et al., 1980;NAIMAN and BILBY, 2001). However, we cannot develop an effective conservation strategy if we do not have the knowledge about the impacts of climate warming on stream organisms. Therefore, we need to assess the influence of climate warming on stream ecosystems.The two main aspects of climatic impacts on streams are water temperature and water flow (DURANCE and ORMEROD, 2007). The importance of water temperature has long been recognized as a major factor determining the distribution and richness of stream organisms along gradients of latitude and altitude (VANNOTE et al., 1980;QUINN and HICKEY, 1990; REY-JOL et al., 2001). Water temperature has large effects on the embr...