Climatic and economic drivers of the Bering Sea walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) fishery: implications for the future

Abstract

This paper illustrates how climate, management, and economic drivers of a fishery interact to affect fishing. Retrospective data from the Bering Sea walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) catcher–processer fishery were used to model the impact of climate on spatial and temporal variation in catch and fishing locations and make inferences about harvester behavior in a warmer climate. Models based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios predict a 40% decrease in sea ice by 2050, resulting in warmer Bering Sea temperatures. We find that differences in the value of catch result in disparate behavior between winter and summer seasons. In winter, warm temperatures and high abundances drive intensive effort early in the season to harvest earlier-maturing roe. In summer, warmer ocean temperatures were associated with lower catch rates and approximately 4% less fishing in the northern fishing grounds, contrary to expectations derived from climate-envelope-type models that suggest fisheries will follow fish poleward. Production-related spatial price differences affected the effort distribution by a similar magnitude. However, warm, low-abundance years have not been historically observed, increasing uncertainty about future fishing conditions. Overall, annual variation in ocean temperatures and economic factors has thus far been more significant than long-term climate change-related shifts in the fishery's distribution of effort.

Effects of climate and demography on reproductive phenology of a harvested marine fish population

“…This study presents the first comprehensive analysis of variable spawning phenology for pollock. Previous studies focused in the Bering Sea have suggested that pollock spawn timing may be sensitive to temperature (Haynie & Pfeiffer, 2013;Smart, Duffy-Anderson, & Horne, 2012) and documented geographic variation in spawn timing among spawning groups experiencing different thermal regimes (Bacheler, Ciannelli, Bailey, & Duffy-Anderson, 2010;Jung, Kang, Kim, & Kendall, 2006), but the degree and form of thermal sensitivity was not quantified, and other (e.g., demographic) effects were not considered. In the Gulf of Alaska, some evidence for variation in spawn timing among years has been presented (Ciannelli, Bailey, Chan, & Stenseth, 2007;Yoklavich & Bailey, 1990); however, consideration of mechanisms has fallen outside the scope of previous studies.…”

Evidence of climate‐driven ecosystem reorganization in the Gulf of Mexico

“…This may be due to direct effects of climate on human behavior and resource acquisition activities (e.g. Carter & Letson, 2009;Haynie & Pfeiffer, 2013) or due to indirect effects of climate on the distribution and availability of resources, which then alter human behavior (e.g. Pinsky & Fogarty, 2012;Pinsky et al, 2013).…”

Strong connections, loose coupling: the influence of the Bering Sea ecosystem on commercial fisheries and subsistence harvests in Alaska

“…The summer pollock fishery has displayed a movement northward, but surprisingly, this is correlated with colder temperatures later in the 2000s rather than with annual warmer temperatures (Haynie and Pfeiffer 2013), thus moving in the opposite direction to what might be expected on ecological grounds. The winter fishery has not displayed significant spatial shifts in the fishing grounds, largely because the location of spawning grounds has remained relatively constant and the fishery targets valuable roe-bearing fish in the southeastern Bering Sea.…”