Climate warming affects spatio-temporal biodiversity patterns of a highly vulnerable Neotropical avifauna

Prieto‐Torres, David A.; Sánchez‐González, Luis A.; Ortiz‐Ramírez, Marco F.; Ramírez‐Albores, Jorge E.; Navarro‐Sigüenza, Adolfo G.

doi:10.1007/s10584-021-03091-3

Cited by 16 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 89 publications

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“…Similarly, cross‐time shifts in projected climatic and habitat suitability of species‐rich areas suggest future changes (gain and loss) in species compositions and turnover, reshaping species communities with unknown regional consequences in ecosystem functioning and provision of environmental services (Hillebrand et al, 2018 ). Efficient conservation efforts should not only focus on preserving a specific number of species, but also in the conservation of phylogenetic and functional diversity, which highlights the importance of incorporating different dimensions of biodiversity into conservation planning (Prieto‐Torres et al, 2021 ). We believe that our modeling exercise provides an information platform for identifying new projected priority areas for conservation (Hillebrand et al, 2018 ; Yu et al, 2021 ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Regarding the temperature and precipitation, species found suitable climatic conditions in the combinations of evaluated CC scenarios (inside their climatic range). However, areas showing strong changes in climate affect environmental conditions resulting in unknown ecological consequences (Prieto‐Torres et al, 2021 ). We also evaluated the number of fires and hurricane intensity occurring in the projections of species potential distributions (Figure 1 ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Species, taxonomic, and functional group diversities of terrestrial mammals at risk under climate change and land‐use/cover change scenarios in Mexico

Ureta

Ramírez-Barrón

Sanchez-Garcia

et al. 2022

Global Change Biology

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There is a need to revise the framework used to project species risks under climate change (CC) and land‐use/cover change (LUCC) scenarios. We built a CC risk index using the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change framework, where risk is a function of vulnerability (sensitivity and adaptive capacity), exposure, and hazard. We incorporated future LUCC scenarios as part of the exposure component. We combined a trait‐based approach based on biological characteristics of species with a correlative approach based on ecological niche modeling, assigning risk scores to species, taxonomic (orders), and functional (trophic, body size, and locomotion) groups of terrestrial mammals occurring in Mexico. We identified 15 species projected to lose their climatic suitability. Of the 11 taxonomic orders, Eulipotyphla, Didelphimorphia, Artiodactyla, and Lagomorpha had the highest risk scores. Of the 19 trophic groups, piscivores, insectivores under canopy, frugivores–granivores, herbivores browser, and myrmecophagous had the highest risk scores. Of the five body‐sized groups, large‐sized species (>15 kg) had highest risk scores. Of the seven locomotion groups, arboreal and semi‐aquatics had highest risk scores. CC and LUCC scenarios reduced suitable areas of species potential distributions by 37.5% (with CC), and 51% (with CC and LUCC) under a limited full‐dispersal assumption. Reductions in suitable areas of species potential distributions increased to 50.2% (with CC), and 52.4% (with CC and LUCC) under a non‐dispersal assumption. Species‐rich areas (>75% species) projected 36% (with CC) and 57% (with CC and LUCC) reductions in suitability for 2070. Shifts in climatic suitability projections of species‐rich areas increased in number of species in northeast and southeast Mexico and decreased in northwest and southern Mexico, suggesting important species turnover. High‐risk projections under future CC and LUCC scenarios for species, taxonomic, and functional group diversities, and species‐rich areas of terrestrial mammals highlight trends in different impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem function.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Species, taxonomic, and functional group diversities of terrestrial mammals at risk under climate change and land‐use/cover change scenarios in Mexico

Ureta

Ramírez-Barrón

Sanchez-Garcia

et al. 2022

Global Change Biology

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“…Climate-driven extinctions and few colonization are also predicted to occur in plant-hummingbird networks from North America and lowland South America communities (Sonne et al, 2022). Furthermore, high temperature and low rainfall in future climatic scenarios are expected to decrease taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional diversity of bird species, leading to a restructuring of species assemblages around the world (Prieto-Torres et al, 2021;Stewart et al, 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Amount of bird suitable areas under climate change is modulated by morphological, ecological and geographical traits

Mota

Heming²,

Morante‐Filho³

et al. 2022

Front. Ecol. Evol.

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Biodiversity is already experiencing the effects of climate change through range expansion, retraction, or relocation, potentializing negative effects of other threats. Future projections already indicate richness reduction and composition modifications of bird communities due to global warming, which may disrupt the provision of key ecological services to ecosystem maintenance. Here, we systematically review the effect of morphological, ecological, and geographical traits on the amount of future suitable area for birds worldwide. Specifically, we tested whether body mass, diet, habitat type, movement pattern, range size, and biogeographic realm affect birds' suitable area. Our search returned 75 studies that modeled the effects of climate change on 1,991 bird species. Our analyses included 1,661 species belonging to 128 families, representing 83% of the total, for which we were able to acquire all the six traits. The proportion of birds' suitable area was affected by range size, body mass, habitat type, and biogeographic realm, while diet and movement pattern showed lower relative importance and were not included in our final model. Contrary to expectations, the proportion of birds' suitable area was negatively related to range size, which may be explained by higher climatic stability predicted in certain areas that harbor species with restricted distribution. In contrast, we observed that birds presenting higher body mass will show an increase of the proportion of suitable area in the future. This is expected due to the high exposure of smaller birds to environmental changes and their difficulty to keep thermoregulation. Our results also indicated a low proportion of suitable area to forest-dependent birds, which is in accordance with their higher vulnerability due to specific requirements for reproduction and feeding. Finally, the proportion of suitable area was low for birds from Oceania, which is expected since the region encompasses small islands isolated from continents, preventing their species from reaching new suitable areas. Our study highlights that different traits should be considered when assessing extinction risk of species based on future projections, helping to improve bird conservation, especially the most vulnerable to climate change.

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“…In addition, even when general trend has shown an increase in beta diversity (i.e. species differentiation) among communities by habitat loss and/or climate changes, for most cases this corresponds in fact to high proportions of species‐extinctions at local scales (Prieto‐Torres et al, 2020, 2021). Currently, the North portion of Cerrado, although it is widely used for farming purposes, is still more vegetated than the south portion (Strassburg et al, 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cerrado native vegetation is a refuge for birds under the current climate change trajectory

Hidasi‐Neto

Gomes

Pinto³

2022

Austral Ecology

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Climate change is already seen as one of the biggest threats to biodiversity in the 21st century. Not many studies direct attention to its effects on whole communities of threatened hotspots. In this work, we combine climate niche modelling (ENM) with a future climate scenario of greenhouse gases emissions to study the future changes in alpha and beta diversity of birds of the Brazilian Cerrado biome, a hot spot of biodiversity with high velocity of climate change and agricultural expansion. We expected Southern Cerrado (highly modified) to present most negative changes. In general, we found heterogeneous results for changes in species richness, spatial and temporal taxonomic and functional beta diversity, and mean ecological distinctiveness. We analysed 1301 birds, 1115 Least Concern, 83 Near Threatened, 63 Vulnerable, 33 Endangered, five Critically Endangered and two Extinct in the Wild. Contrary to a previous study on Cerrado mammals, species richness is expected to increase in Northern Cerrado, where homogenization of communities (decreasing spatial turnover) is also expected to occur especially through local invasions. We show that biotic homogenization increasing (similarity among communities) will occur in two biological groups but through different subprocesses: local extinctions for mammals and local invasions for birds. Distinct conservation management actions should be directed depending on the outcomes of analyses of alpha and spatial and temporal beta diversity, for example controlling species invasions in Northern Cerrado. We also show species-level priorities for Cerrado birds. Conservation studies should continue evaluating Cerrado in Brazil even under covid pandemic, as environmental situation in the country is not good and incentives for scientific studies are almost nonexistent. We also consider that Northern Cerrado could be seen as a potential refuge for other organismal groups (bats, butterflies, frogs, etc). Therefore, ambitious conservation actions by decision-makers are now crucial.

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Climate warming affects spatio-temporal biodiversity patterns of a highly vulnerable Neotropical avifauna

Cited by 16 publications

References 89 publications

Species, taxonomic, and functional group diversities of terrestrial mammals at risk under climate change and land‐use/cover change scenarios in Mexico

Species, taxonomic, and functional group diversities of terrestrial mammals at risk under climate change and land‐use/cover change scenarios in Mexico

Amount of bird suitable areas under climate change is modulated by morphological, ecological and geographical traits

Cerrado native vegetation is a refuge for birds under the current climate change trajectory

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