Climate variability of heat wave and projection of warming scenario in Taiwan

Abstract

This study examined the climate variability of heat wave (HW) according to air temperature and relative humidity to determine trends of variation and stress threshold in three major cities of Taiwan, Taipei (TP), Taichung (TC), and Kaohsiung (KH), in the past four decades . According to the data availability, the wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) heat stress for the three studied cities was also calculated for the past (2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012) and simulated under the future warming scenario for the end of this century (2075-2099) using ECHAM5/MPIOM-WRF (ECW) dynamic downscaling 5-km resolution. Analysis showed that past decade (2001-2010) saw increase not only in the number of HW days in all three cities but also in the duration of each HW event in TP and KH. Simulation results revealed that ECW well captures the characteristics of data distribution in these three cities during [2003][2004][2005][2006][2007][2008][2009][2010][2011][2012]. Under the A1B projection, ECW yielded higher WBGT in all three cities for 2075-2099. The WBGT in TP indicated that the heat stress for 50% of the days in July and August by 2075-2099 will be at danger level (WBGT ≥ 31°C). Even the median of WBGT in TC and KH (30.91 and 30.88°C, respectively) are close to 31°C. Hence, the heat stress in all three cities will either exceed or approach the danger level by the end of this century. Such projection under the global warming trend would necessitate adaptation and mitigation, and the huge impact of dangerous heat stress on public health merits urgent attention for Taiwan.

Spatial relationship between land development pattern and intra-urban thermal variations in Taipei

“…The warming trend has been distinct in the urbanised basin areas. Both the intensity and frequency of hot summer days have increased significantly in the last four decades ( Bai, Juang, & Kondoh, 2011 ; CWB, 2014 ; Lin, Chien, Su, Kueh, & Lung, 2017 ). This warming tendency places pressure on electricity networks due to rising cooling demands and may increase heat-related health problems, especially given Taiwan’s increasingly elderly population ( Chen, Wu, Pan, Chen, & Lung, 2016 ).…”

Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Urban Heatwaves Using Tukey g-and-h Random Field Models

“…This is also the reason ground temperatures are typically higher than air temperatures. Although air temperatures are commonly used for heatwave risk assessment (e.g., [41,42]), our results suggest that ground temperature is a better indicator of UHI effects. Although the results are only for one of the 61 target days, examination of the data for the other days showed that ground temperatures in urban areas were high on most of the target days.…”

Climatology and the Interannual Variability of the High‐Temperature Extremes in Taiwan

“…HTEs have been widely discussed in climate change‐related studies. In Taiwan, the number (Li, ; Lin et al, ) of hot days has increased considerably over the past few decades. Understanding the multiscale variability that favors HTE occurrence and identifying possible precursors for HTE prediction and early warning are therefore essential.…”

“…The interannual variations in summer HTEs in China have been attributed to variation in the WNP SH, which in turn have been ascribed to ENSO's lagged influence and associated warming of the Indian Ocean basin (Hu et al, ; Hu et al, ; Wang et al, ). Regarding the interannual variability of HTEs in Taiwan, numerous studies have examined and explained the trends (Hsu et al, ; Lai & Cheng, ; Lu et al, ) and the decadal variability (Lin et al, ), but fewer studies have examined the impact of ENSO.…”

“…Western Taiwan, which has flatter terrain, is easier to develop and has a number of major cities. Most studies related to heat waves or HTEs have focused on these large cities in western Taiwan (Hsu et al, ; Lai & Cheng, ; Li, ; Lin et al, ). However, few studies have systematically examined the temporal/spatial distributions of HTEs in Taiwan or explored other HTE hot spots in regions other than these major cities.…”