Climate Variability and Societal Dynamics in Pre-Colonial Southern African History (AD 900-1840): A Synthesis and Critique

Abstract

The role of climate variability in pre-colonial southern African history is highly disputed. We here provide a synthesis and critique of climate-society discourses relating to two regionally-defining periods of state formation and disaggregation. The first period involves the eleventh-thirteenth century development of socio-political complexity and the rise of southern Africa's first state, Mapungubwe, followed by its collapse and the shift in regional power to Great Zimbabwe. The later period encompasses the early-nineteenth century difaqane/mfecane mass migrations, violence and ensuing state-building activity. To further our assessment, we consider the wider contentious issues of climate causation and determinism in a regional context, but dispute suggestions of paradigm shift towards simplistic environmental collapse. Nevertheless, we specifically point to ambiguities in palaeoclimate records, a narrative tendency toward monocausal explanations and a lack of integration among the literature as reasons for a sustained divergence in interpretation regarding the significance of climate. We move on to discuss the potential of integrative approaches to illuminate understanding of the complex interactions between past climate variability and human activity. In order to do so, we highlight interlinked concepts such as vulnerability and resilience as key for bridging the gap between the natural and social sciences. To conclude, we point to future climate-society priorities and ways forward in the form of research areas, data prospects and questions.

Climate, history, society over the last millennium in southeast Africa

“…It is against this background that we evaluate, through a synthesis of existing studies and new perspectives on vulnerability, resilience, and adaptability, climate–society relationships over the last millennium in southeast Africa. In particular, our review seeks to address key questions raised elsewhere on the social‐ecological factors underpinning long‐term changes in human responses to, and impacts of, climate variability and extremes, including: What was the nature and magnitude of climatic change over the last millennium in southeast Africa—and which periods of variability were of particular societal significance? How did human vulnerability and resilience vary across southeast African societies—and how did this change with transformations in societal organization and early colonial influence? How did climate‐related worldviews, beliefs, and framings affect responses to climatic stress? How did societies cope with, and adapt to, climate variability and extremes? …”

“Everything is scorched by the burning sun”: missionary perspectives and experiences of 19th- and early 20th-century droughts in semi-arid central Namibia

“…The 1877-1879 drought affected most southern African summer rainfall regions (Nash et al, 2019) and coincided with what has been described as the 1877-1878 "Global Drought" and "Global Famine" caused by a major El Niño (Davis, 2001;Hao et al, 2010;Singh et al, 2018). This was indeed one of the most devastating droughts in recorded history over central Namibia.…”

“…locust plagues, rinderpest, increased occurrence of fires) impacted human and livestock resilience and thus the perceived impacts of drought. This was not only the case over central Namibia but also in wetter regions of southern Africa (see Hannaford et al, 2014;.…”

“…overgrazing), and fires would also have influenced grazing conditions. Hence, while climate (droughts) undoubtedly influenced social change, this always requires a critical assessment to avoid the trap of "climate determinism" (see Hannaford et al, 2014).…”

Criticizing resilience thinking: A political ecology analysis of droughts in nineteenth‐century East Africa

“…In the context of sub‐Saharan Africa, an increasing number of studies focus on climate as the main explanatory factor for a host of current, historical, and prehistorical social and economic changes. In their review of such studies, Hannaford et al () maintain that many offer overly simplistic conclusions about human–environmental interrelationships over time. They do, however, also point out that numerous other studies take more nuanced perspectives that demonstrate complex interactions between climate and environmental, economic, social, and political factors over time (e.g., Ekblom ; Eriksen and Lind ; Holmgren and Öberg ).…”