Climate suitability as a predictor of conservation translocation failure

Abstract

The continuing decline and loss of biodiversity has caused an increase in the use of interventionist conservation tools, such as translocation. However, many translocation attempts fail to establish viable populations, with poor release site selection often flagged as an inhibitor of success. We used species distribution models (SDMs) to predict the climate suitability of 102 release sites for amphibians, reptiles, and terrestrial insects and compared suitability predictions between successful and failed attempts. We then quantified the importance of climate suitability relative to 5 other variables frequently considered in the literature as important determinants of translocation success: number of release years, number of individuals released, life stage released, origin of the source population, and position of the release site relative to the species' range. Probability of translocation success increased as predicted climate suitability increased and this effect was the strongest among the variables we considered, accounting for 48.3% of the variation in translocation outcome. These findings should encourage greater consideration of climate suitability when selecting release sites for conservation translocations and we advocate the use of SDMs as an effective way to do this.

Protected areas network is not adequate to protect a critically endangered East Africa Chelonian: Modelling distribution of pancake tortoise, Malacochersus tornieri under current and future climates

“…Furthermore, the available suitable and stable habitats outside of the current range could be used as baseline areas for the translocation and introduction of the species where necessary. Therefore, we support the IUCN [19] and Bellis et al [20], who have suggested the importance of conducting SDMs before translocation and species introduction/re-introduction. Our model did not predict the existence of climatically suitable habitats for pancake tortoises in Zambia (Fig 2).…”

“…Therefore, in this study, we used species distribution modeling (SDM) to determine current and future climatic habitats suitable for the pancake tortoise. We chose this method because SDM is the most widely accepted method of predicting climatically suitable habitats [20], which helps to avoid uncertainties in selecting areas for translocation while providing a higher chance of success [19–21].…”

“…Specifically, we assessed (i) the current and future climatically suitable areas for pancake tortoises, (ii) the occurrence of more stable areas over time and (iii) whether the protected areas will be viable for the conservation of the species. The findings of this study could play a significant role in promoting the use of species distribution studies on species management approaches [34], including the proposal of suitable areas for translocation [20,35,36] and the establishment of nature reserves where species can be protected with minimal human intervention, as recommended by Malonza [10].…”

Protected areas network is not adequate to protect a critically endangered East Africa Chelonian: Modelling distribution of pancake tortoise, Malacochersus tornieri under current and future climates

“…Therefore, in this study, we used species distribution modeling (SDM) to determine current and future climatic habitats suitable for the pancake tortoise. Identifying these climatic suitable habitats, might help to avoid uncertainties in selecting areas for translocation or introduction while providing a higher chance of success [27][28][29].…”

“…Specifically, we assessed (i) the current and future climatically suitable areas for pancake tortoises, (ii) the occurrence of climatically persistent areas over time (henceforward, stable areas) and (iii) whether the protected areas will be viable for the conservation of the species. This study may inform species management approaches [42], including identifying suitable areas for translocation [29,43,44] and the establishment of nature reserves where species can be protected with minimal human intervention [10].…”