Climate Services for Renewable Energy in the Nordic Electricity Market

Abstract

To limit global warming to less than 2 °C requires a low-carbon transition with very large shares of renewables. Options such as wind, solar and hydro are influenced by both short and longer-term weather and climate variability. While still subject to natural and anthropogenic climate forcing and fluctuating energy prices, water reservoirs can dually operate as storage and production facilities and serve to balance the more volatile production capacity from solar and wind. This paper assesses the dynamics and demands of the hydro-dominated Nordic electricity system and market and identifies untapped potential for climate services based on a combination of literature-based research, documented stakeholder needs and data sources on historical and future conditions. A critical need for both improving the appropriateness and reliability of existing climate services and for developing new tailored solutions for a broader group of stakeholders from the renewable energy sector in the Nordics is observed. The quantification of uncertainties related to short-term weather forecasts and longer-term climate predictions is also found to be important for minimizing the financial risk in relation to systems management and to overall investments in renewable energy.

The dynamics of energy transition in European countries in years 2004-2021

“…These countries also have the fastest growth rate of RES in primary energy consumption. As Danish researchers have pointed out (Halsnaes et al, 2021), the Nordic energy system is currently dominated by renewables, primarily by hydropower, with the other part (about a third) coming from nuclear and fossil fuels. When compared to the rest of Europe, the Nordic countries possess renewable energy resources such as hydropower and bioenergy.…”

“…Nordic countries still have the potential to improve the management of existing resources. The planned increase in the share of renewable energy under the Paris Agreement will be particularly in wind power and, to a lesser extent, biomass, both of which are presumed to significantly increase the volatility of energy supply in Scandinavia, particularly in Sweden, as nuclear power is replaced (Halsnaes et al, 2021).…”

A comprehensive review of wind power integration and energy storage technologies for modern grid frequency regulation

“…A dynamical approach used for daily planning in an electricity market is introduced in Ref. [ 189 ]. The purpose of the online operational plan is to closely adhere to a predetermined production timeline.…”

Nordic hydrological frontier in the 21st century

“…Accordingly, mitigation strategies are needed to protect the environment from adverse effects. Recent studies have found under-utilized potential in the renewable energy sector that could be achieved by considering better climate services such as the seasonal forecast of inflow (Halsnaes et al 2021). As hydropower is the dominant renewable energy source in the region, continued collaboration between hydrologists and the energy sector will be essential for a sustainable future through the sustainable operation and effective utilization of resources.…”