Climate Scenarios: What we need to know and how to generate them

Santoso, Heru; Idinoba, Monica; Imbach, Pablo

doi:10.17528/cifor/002766

Cited by 4 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 18 publications

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“…Plenty of policy level guidelines and tools exist for applying various adaptation frameworks for adapting cities to climate change, considering the climate scenarios, potential risks and human development pathways. Easy-to-understand guidelines were developed to help public authorities consider the role of climate scenarios in urban adaptation [2]. The European Commission along with the European Environmental Agency streamlined the iterative framework in the form of the Climate-Adapt Support Tool, which includes specific features for city-scale adaptation [3].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrated Decision Support System for Pluvial Flood-Resilient Spatial Planning in Urban Areas

Truu

Annus

Roosimägi

et al. 2021

Water

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Flood-resilient spatial planning in urban areas involves designing and implementing structural and nonstructural measures. For the latter, urban planners apply a precautionary principle, which is normally not grounded in the actual performance of the urban drainage system (UDS). This approach, however, fails during weather extremes with heavy precipitation. This paper presents a new concept for reducing pluvial flood risks in the urban planning process. The novelty of the developed planning support system named Extreme Weather Layer (EWL) is that it creates dynamic interlinkages between land developments, the performance of UDS, and other factors that contribute to flood risk. The EWL is built on the digital twin of the existing UDS and delivers an easy-to-use concept, where the end user can analyze hydraulic modelling results interlinked with climate scenarios using the GIS platform. This allows planning specialists to consider land use and soil types in the urban environment to simulate the response of the storm water system and the catchments to different rainfall events. This proposed approach was piloted in Haapsalu (Estonia) and Söderhamn (Sweden). The resulting planning support system, which performs as a set of layers within municipalities’ GIS, allows decision makers to understand and predict the impact of various spatial planning decisions on the pluvial flood risk.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrated Decision Support System for Pluvial Flood-Resilient Spatial Planning in Urban Areas

Truu

Annus

Roosimägi

et al. 2021

Water

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Counting on forests and accounting for forest contributions in national climate change actions

Nkem¹,

Oswald²,

Kudejira³

et al. 2009

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Climate uncertainty and implications for U.S. state-level risk assessment through 2050.

Loose¹,

Lowry²,

Malczynski³

et al. 2009

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Decisions for climate policy will need to take place in advance of climate science resolving all relevant uncertainties. Further, if the concern of policy is to reduce risk, then the best-estimate of climate change impacts may not be so important as the currently understood uncertainty associated with realizable conditions having high consequence. This study focuses on one of the most uncertain aspects of future climate change -precipitation -to understand the implications of uncertainty on risk and the near-term justification for interventions to mitigate the course of climate change.We show that the mean risk of damage to the economy from climate change, at the national level, is on the order of one trillion dollars over the next 40 years, with employment impacts of nearly 7 million labor-years. At a 1% exceedance-probability, the impact is over twice the mean-risk value. Impacts at the level of individual U.S. states are then typically in the multiple tens of billions dollar range with employment losses exceeding hundreds of thousands of laboryears.We used results of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report 4 (AR4) climate-model ensemble as the referent for climate uncertainty over the next 40 years, mapped the simulated weather hydrologically to the county level for determining the physical consequence to economic activity at the state level, and then performed a detailed, 4 seventy-industry, analysis of economic impact among the interacting lower-48 states. We determined industry GDP and employment impacts at the state level, as well as interstate population migration, effect on personal income, and the consequences for the U.S. trade balance. 5 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

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Climate Scenarios: What we need to know and how to generate them

Abstract: C l i m a t e S C e n a r i o S : W h a t W e n e e d t o k n o W a n d h o W t o g e n e r a t e t h e m Contact

Cited by 4 publications

References 18 publications

Integrated Decision Support System for Pluvial Flood-Resilient Spatial Planning in Urban Areas

Integrated Decision Support System for Pluvial Flood-Resilient Spatial Planning in Urban Areas

Counting on forests and accounting for forest contributions in national climate change actions

Climate uncertainty and implications for U.S. state-level risk assessment through 2050.

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